NBA Prop Bets
After a week off, we’re back for one more round of NBA props before the All-Star break this weekend. Plenty of games are on offer this evening, but with lineups changing ahead of the break, we’ll look to improve on our current 11-6 record. As always we’ll look to our Fantasy Data Projection tool for comparison tonight.
PJ Washington over 15.5 points (-120)
The Charlotte Hornets (16-43) have been far from electric this season, despite the best efforts of LaMelo Ball and co, but they host the even worse-off San Antonio Spurs (14-44) and will try to push on after picking up their first win in 7 games after dispatching the Hawks. In the weeks leading up to the All-Star Break, one of their more consistent performers has been PJ Washington who has covered his over in his last 4 straight with 17+ points in each and will be eager to continue against one of the poorest defenses in the league. The Spurs in their previous 3 are averaging 126.7 points against per game (29th) and have been a consistent ‘bet against’ team when it comes to point scorers in recent weeks. They also struggle against point-scoring centers, with Clint Capela having the lowest score (14) in the last 9 games against them and Jarrett Allen (17) is the only other under 20 in that spell. Our projection tool also has Washington right at 15.65 points for the game.
Kelly Olynyk over 10.5 points (-114)
The Utah Jazz (29-30) are one of the more hot and cold teams so far this season and they travel to Memphis to face Ja Morant and the Grizzlies (30-22), with the Grizzlies’ heavy favorites (-8.5) heading into this one. Another of my go-to’s in recent weeks has been Kelly Olynyk after his return from injury. Olynyk has scored 11+ points in his last 5 straight and in their last 3 the Jazz rank 5th in shooting % (51.9), with our projection tool having him at a comfortable 12.74. The Grizzlies have struggled in recent weeks once again against power forwards, with each opposition team having their PF scoring double-digit points in the last 8 straight.
Buddy Hield over 3.5 3pts made (-105)
In one of the few closely projected games, the Indiana Pacers (25-34) welcome the Chicago Bulls (26-31) in a narrow -2.5 point matchup. The Bulls have struggled in recent weeks, losing 4 straight and only averaging 102 points in that span, whilst the Pacers are one worse with a 5 game losing streak, though they’ve averaged just under 110 per game so they’ve been a little more exciting on offense. Buddy Hield leads the Pacers with 3-pointers made (224) and 3 point % (42.3) and will look to bounce back after an awful night against the Jazz in their last game, shooting 2/11 from 3, as he’d hit 4+ 3’s in his previous 5 straight. The Bulls rank 25th in the league in 3-point shots allowed per game (35.3) and the Pacers are also 6th in 3-pointers attempted (37.7), so anticipate Hield to have plenty of attempts this evening and return to his season average of 3.8. Our projection tool also has him at 3.9.
Joel Embiid under 45.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-122)
We’ll finish off with a slightly more risky play, with Embiid’s fine form this season, but his lingering foot injury and the Cavs’ stellar defense of recent weeks give me hope for this one. The Philadelphia 76ers (37-22) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (38-22) in what should be a very tight matchup, as the Cavs look to extend their 7-game win streak, though they’re the slight dogs (+2) as the road team. Embiid will look to take part in the NBA All-Star game this weekend so I can’t foresee him having a 40-minute game this evening, like their last game against Houston he saw just 30 minutes and totaled 33 PRA against a poor Rockets team. Cleveland ranks 1st in opposition points allowed per game (101.7) and 3rd in defensive rebounds allowed per game (28.3 in their last 3), so look for them to keep the game tight and limit his opportunities. In their last matchup, he saw just 31 total, though he did play just 28 minutes. His points line sits 4 below his season average, so the books see he could be in line for a slightly quieter night than normal, and our projection tool has him just below with a total of 42.86.
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.