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Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview

Josh Allen

Vikings at Bills Pick and Preview

Non Conference NFL Matchup

Point Spread: Bills -3.5 | Total Points: 43.5

Leading up to their non-conference matchup against Buffalo, the Vikings have rattled off 6 straight wins and have an overall record of 7-1. The Vikings head into week 9, looking to add another victory, as they picked up 3 point victory over the Washington Commanders (20-17). In terms of the spread, Minnesota and Washington pushed, with the Vikings as -3.0 point favorites. The over-under betting total going into the game was 43, which the teams did not surpass.

Leading into their week 10 AFC East matchup against Minnesota, the Bills have an overall record of 6-2. In week 9, the Buffalo Bills dropped their AFC East matchup against the Jets by a score of 20-17. Heading into the game, the Bills were expected to win as 10.5-point favorites. This outcome resulted in both a straight-up and ATS loss. With an over-under betting line of 46, the two teams fell below that figure as they combined for 37.

Vikings vs. Bills History

Going back to last season, the two teams did not have a head-to-head matchup. Heading into this week’s matchup, the Bills have the edge in their recent games against Minnesota, posting a record of 2-1. Buffalo is averaging 19 points per game in the last three games compared to 20 for the Vikings.

The last three times that the Bills have hosted Minnesota, they have a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, Buffalo holds a recent edge vs. the spread, going 3-2 in the previous five meetings.

Notable Injuries

Notable Injuries

Minnesota Vikings

  • Adam Thielen (Ankle) Questionable
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (Calf) Questionable
  • Garrett Bradbury (Ankle) Questionable
  • Ben Ellefson (Groin) Questionable
  • Cameron Dantzler Sr. (Ankle) Questionable

Buffalo Bills

  • Kaiir Elam (Ankle) Questionable
  • Greg Rousseau (Ankle) Questionable
  • Spencer Brown (Ankle) Probable
  • Dane Jackson (Neck) Probable
  • Tremaine Edmunds (Groin/heel) Questionable
  • Josh Allen (Elbow) Questionable
  • Matt Milano (Oblique) Probable
  • Jordan Poyer (Elbow) Questionable
  • David Quessenberry (Groin) Probable
  • Mitch Morse (Elbow) Questionable

Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings

Compared to other NFL teams, the Vikings offense has performed well this year, averaging 24.12 points per game (8th). Their strong offensive play led to the team accounting for 55.0% of the total scoring, equating to an average scoring differential of +4.0 points per game. Look for the Vikings to rely heavily on the passing attack in this week’s matchup, as not only are they one of the better teams at moving the ball through the air, but they have a good matchup against a Bills defense that is ranked just 26th in yards per game vs the pass. For the year, Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown for a total of 1999 passing yards on a passer rating of 89.51. In week 10, Cousins is a candidate for a strong performance vs a secondary that can be taken advantage of through the air. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Justin Jefferson, who comes into the game with 867 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 47.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.

This week, don’t expect the Vikings to find much success on the ground, as they are not only one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, but they have a tough matchup against a Bills defense giving up just 104.88 yards per game against the run. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Through 8 games, he has rushed for a total of 608 yards on the ground.

Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills

The Bills will enter this non-conference matchup as NFL’s 3rd ranked scoring offense and are 3.5-point favorites on the spread. This comes despite health concerns surrounding Josh Allen. This season, he has completed 64.1% of his passes, leading an average of 300.38 yards per game in the passing attack. In his last performance, he threw for 205 passing yards and put together a passer rating of 46.81. If Allen is unable to play, Kase Keenum is in line to get the start. Against the Vikings, the team will look to get receiver Stefon Diggs involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 10.38 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 857.

Buffalo running back Devin Singletary on the ground will have his work cut out for him against one of the league’s best rush defenses. So far, Buffalo allows an average of 111.25 rushing yards per game. For the season, Singletary has a yards-per-attempt figure of 4.4.

Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Minnesota is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Minnesota is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
  • Minnesota is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.


Currently we have the Bills winning and covering this week against the Vikings, but that is subject to change if Josh Allen is out. Check out all our NFL Week 10 picks to stay up to date.

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