Cowboys vs. Vikings Week 11 Pick and Preview

Tony Pollard

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

NFC Matchup

Point Spread: Vikings +1.5 | Total Points: 48.5

Heading into the game, the Cowboys are the 6th ranked team in the NFC with a record of 6-3. Against other teams in the conference, they have a mark of 5-3. This week, the Dallas Cowboys hope to get back in the win column after falling 31-28 to the Green Bay Packers. The loss was costly, as it came against an NFC opponent. By dropping the game, the team also failed to cover the spread, as they had a -3.5 advantage on the spread. By the end of the game, the teams combined for 59 points, surpassing the betting line of 44.

This week, the Vikings travel to take on the Cowboys in an NFC matchup. Heading into the game, the Vikings have won 7 straight games leading to an overall record of 8-1. The Vikings head into week 11, looking for another win, as they picked up 3 point victory over the Buffalo Bills (33-30). In terms of betting, Minnesota picked up an ATS win, as they were the 6.5-point underdogs. The teams combined for a total of 63 points, which surpassed the over-under betting line of 46.

Cowboys vs Vikings History

In the last matchup between Dallas and Minnesota, the Cowboys picked up both a straight-up and ATS win as they were 4.5-point road underdogs. Yet, they still managed to win by a score of 20-16. In the last 3 head-to-head matchups, the Cowboys are averaging 25 points per game, compared to the Vikings at 24. These figures have led to Dallas posting a record of 2-1.

This week, the Vikings will look to do a better job defending their home field, as they have gone 1-2 in the last 3 games of this series as the host. In terms of betting, Dallas holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 2-3 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 22.5, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Notable Injuries

Dallas Cowboys

  • Ezekiel Elliott (Knee) Questionable
  • Anthony Brown (Concussion) Questionable
  • Anthony Barr (Hamstring) Questionable
  • DeMarcus Lawrence (Knee) Questionable
  • Quinton Bohanna (Illness) Questionable

Minnesota Vikings

  • Za’Darius Smith (Knee) Questionable
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (Calf) Questionable
  • Justin Jefferson (Toe) Questionable
  • Ben Ellefson (Groin) Questionable
  • Christian Darrisaw (Concussion) Questionable
  • Akayleb Evans (Concussion) Questionable

Keys To Victory: Dallas Cowboys

Compared to other NFL teams, the Cowboys offense has performed well this year, averaging 23.44 points per game (11th). Their strong offensive play led to the team accounting for 56.0% of the total scoring, equating to an average scoring differential of 5.22 points per game. In this week’s matchup, look for the Cowboys’ offense to attack the Vikings’ secondary, as the unit has had its problems defending the pass. For the season, Dallas is averaging 198.56 yards per contest through the air. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott comes into this week’s game having thrown for 856 yards and has a passer rating of just 85.94. However, there is reason to think he could put together a good game, vs. the league’s 29th-ranked passing defense. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been CeeDee Lamb, who comes into the game with 706 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 51.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.

On the ground, the Cowboys should be able to put in yet another strong performance, as they are currently the 8th-ranked team in rush yards per game and face off vs a defense that is vulnerable up front. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Tony Pollard, who is averaging 6.0 yards per attempt. Through 9 games he has rushed for a total of 621 yards on the ground.

Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota enters this week’s action averaging 25.11 points per game, placing them 8th in the NFL. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2356 yards, with the team ranking 7th in yards per game through the air. This production has come despite the team averaging 39.67 passing attempts (5th). The team’s top receiver Justin Jefferson has caught 69.0% of the passes thrown his way and has accumulated 1060 receiving yards.

A key to the Vikings’ chances in the game is if they will be able to put together a stronger effort on the ground. The team would benefit from being able to control time of possession, as the Vikings’ offense is one of the better scoring units in the NFL. But so far, Minnesota is averaging just 107.0 yards per game on the ground.

Betting Trends

  • Dallas is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Dallas is 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Dallas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
  • Dallas is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.


Some are calling this the game of the week. We like the Vikings in a great back-and-forth game; however, we think this game stays under the total. Take the Vikings and the points.

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