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Trevor Lawrence Gets A Massive Contract Extension

Trevor Lawrence 1

Trevor Lawrence Contract Extension

Earlier this week, the Jacksonville Jaguars and QB Trevor Lawrence agreed to a five-year, $275 million extension, including a $200 guarantee. With a contract that pays him $55 million per year, Lawrence matches Joe Burrow’s league-leading contract in total value and average annual salary. It might seem like an odd move to make for a player who has had a bit of an up-and-down career. His first season was sacrificed due to the ineptitude of Head Coach Urban Meyer who was fired after just 13 games. With the hiring of Doug Pederson, Lawrence managed to improve in 2022 and after garnering seven wins in his last nine games he managed to lead Jacksonville to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. During this run, Lawrence completed 69.7% of his passes for 2,273 yards and a 15-2 TD-INT ratio. But then he took a step back in 2023, finishing with fewer touchdowns, a lower passer rating, and more interceptions in 2023 than he did in 2022, and the Jaguars failed to make the playoffs, instead ceding the spot to the upstart Houston Texans and new star of the AFC South, C.J. Stroud.

With a resume that reads like that of a slightly above-average quarterback, it might initially seem ridiculous that the Jaguars would be so willing to invest so much in Lawrence. While he hasn’t been a failure since being drafted, he also hasn’t lived up to the hype that surrounded him coming out of college. But it is easy to watch him play and come away from it believing in his raw ability. Still, is he worth such a massive payday? I think that’s probably the wrong question to be asking. If you’re just looking at the money in a vacuum, then you’ll feel like he’s being overpaid because there’s no case to be made that he’s the best quarterback in the league. You’d have to maneuver even to claim he’s in the top five. But here’s the truth of the matter. When discussing contracts for quarterbacks whether they “deserve” what they are getting is often irrelevant. When a quarterback with a certain amount of talent gets a big payday, those contracts very often make them the highest-paid player in the league. It happened with Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Burrow, and now Lawrence, and none of them are the consensus “best quarterback in the league,” because that honor goes to Patrick Mahomes. Plus, Lawrence has only played one season since making the Pro Bowl, so it’s reasonable to believe he still has the type of talent that makes him worth the risk.

Teams tend to pay up for what they believe a player can do and not just because of what they’ve done. At just 24 years old, Lawrence has plenty of time to continue to learn, grow, and develop into the player they believed they were drafting. The contract will undoubtedly come with certain expectations. The Jaguars will want to see a performance worthy of such a substantial investment and will look for Lawrence to lead them to the playoffs. Earlier this year Jacksonville Jaguars’ odds to make the playoffs sat at -300, while their odds to win the AFC South were -200, and their odds to win the Super Bowl were at +3500. It’s too early to tell what impact, if any, Lawrence’s new contract will have on these odds, but if the buzz out of camp and preseason is positive and Lawrence is able to develop chemistry with some of his new pieces we could see the odds improve.

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