Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Falcons at Panthers

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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Midterms may be all over the news, but we’re now midway through the season, and what better way to distract from the politics than a blockbuster Thursday Night Football game? The Atlanta Falcons (4-5) travel to the Carolina Panthers (2-7) with the Falcons slight favorites (-3) on the road, likely due to the Panthers’ disastrous performance against the Bengals last week, and more so the first half horror show from PJ Walker (3 completions for 9 yards). What should keep this close is the Panthers’ 2 wins this season both coming at home, and the Falcons are 1-3 on the road.

Cordarrelle Patterson anytime TD (+105)

A significant return for the Falcons last week was the return of Cordarrelle Patterson from injury after he missed the previous 4 games with a knee issue. He made an instant impact, carrying the ball 13 times for 44 yards and 2 touchdowns, one of which included destroying linebacker Drue Tranquill on his way into the endzone. With us being on a short week, they may give him a similar workload with regard to touches, in 3rd down and red zone situations. With him having 64 yards rushed and 3 touchdowns from in the red zone already, look for him to continue this trend against a Panthers defense that’s averaged conceding 1 rushing touchdown (even before Joe Mixon’s 4 last weekend).

Tyler Allgeier Over 39.5 scrimmage yards (-115)

Last week I said that Dameon Pierce’s line was too low due to recency bias, and he rushed for over double his total on offer. I think with Patterson’s return, Tyler Allgeiers’ line is in a similar situation. The 5th-round rookie has affirmed himself the team’s RB2 with 94 rush attempts this season over Caleb Huntley (64) and had the more efficient game when Patterson returned, rushing for 99 yards on 10 carries over Huntley’s 7 carries for 34 yards. Since week 3 he hasn’t rushed for less than 39 yards after taking on a higher snap count than his first 2 games, and in both games with Patterson since then he has also had a single reception for 20+ yards. The Falcons are ranked 3 in rushing attempts per game (33.7), so look for Allgeier to still see 10-12 carries and a target or two from Mariota against one of the weakest rush defenses in the NFL (ranked 28 in rushing yards allowed per game – 139.3)

Terrace Marshall Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

The Atlanta Falcons rank 32 in the NFL in receiving yards allowed (300), on paper this should be an absolute steal. The problem is that the Panthers are sticking with PJ Walker this Thursday after his dumpster fire first half in Cincinnati. The reverse fixture for this game was only 10 days ago which makes it difficult to succumb to recency bias, but in that game, Marshall had 4 receptions on 9 targets for 87 yards. Now I don’t foresee Walker throwing for 317 yards again, but the lowest yardage thrown by a quarterback against Atlanta this season was 234 by Jacoby Brissett. I would hope for a bounceback game from Walker, as he said as soon as he got to the bench on Sunday he’d put that half behind him, so look for him to target Marshall when DJ Moore is covered.

D’Onta Foreman Over 53.5 rushing yards (-115)

I went back and forth on this one after his quiet game against the Bengals, but I believe Foreman will bounce back this week for a number of reasons. Firstly in the last game against the Falcons, he rushed 26 times for 118 yards, so he’s had their number once before. Secondly, although they rank 8th in rushing yards allowed per game (106), they’ve consistently allowed RB1s to top 56+ yards this season, with the exception of some of the main pass-catching running backs (Ekeler, Hunt & Kamara) who have still seen around 40-50 yards on the ground. Chuba Hubbard is also questionable for the game as he’s missed the last 2 games with an ankle issue so Foreman looks set to lead the team once more. Finally, the game script in the Bengals game had a strong impact on his usage. The Bengals scored on the opening drive, after which Foreman had 2 carries for 5 yards before the Panthers punted. What followed was multiple 3 and-outs from incomplete passes for the Panthers which were met with Bengals touchdowns. By the half, after 2 interceptions, 1 fumble and only 3 carries for Foreman, the Panthers were down 0-35 and all they could do was pass the ball in a futile attempt to try and chase the game. I don’t expect this to be the case on Thursday, Walker will likely try to manage the ball better, and to do this will need to prioritize a strong run game.