Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Bucs vs. Ravens
Here it is, the good Thursday night game we’ve been asking about for the last few weeks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) host the Baltimore Ravens (4-3) in a matchup where both teams will believe they should be in a better position than they are currently, especially Tom Brady if his recent displays are anything to go by. The Bucs are coming off back-to-back losses (Steelers & Panthers) of which they were double-digit favorites going into both, so on paper, you’d expect them to lose to a stronger team like the Ravens no? If there’s one thing we’ve seen with these short turnarounds on a Thursday night, it’s that nothing will go the way it should. The line being within 2 points (Bucs -1.5) further amplifies this, and fun fact, Tom Brady hasn’t lost 3 games in a row since 2002, he’s not going to want to do that again.
Chris Godwin Over 6.5 receptions (-135)
In the last 3 games, Chris Godwin has led the Bucs with a 23% target share and pulled in 19 receptions off 31 targets, which is just ahead of Mike Evans who has a 20% target share and 17 receptions from 27 targets. The difference between the two is that Evans is averaging 13.8 yards per reception, whilst Godwin is averaging 10.1, which makes me lean more towards his reception over rather than his 71.5 total which he’s only eclipsed once in 5 games so far. With Evans also limited in practice on Tuesday with an ankle problem, Julio Jones limited, and Russell Gage missing practice has me leaning toward Godwin’s reception total.
Lamar Jackson Over 61.5 rushing yards (+105)
Lamar Jackson is currently the RB4 on the year. Yes, you read that correctly. So far this season he is averaging around 9 carries and 7.7 yards per carry, and ignoring a rough outing in week 1 against the Jets, in his last 6 games, he’s averaging 10 carries for 82 yards. Match this with a very average Bucs rush defense, ranked #16 in rushing yards against per game (116) and conceding 133.7 in their last 3, I like Lamar’s chances. For a recent comparison as well, Marcus Mariota rushed for 61 yards off of 7 carries when they played the Bucs in week 5. If you’re looking for further action on Jackson, he’s thrown 6 interceptions so far this season, and the Bucs defense has 6 themselves. He’s -125 to throw one on Thursday.
Cade Otton Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
After a quiet first couple of games, Cade Otton is slowly emerging as a favorable target for Tom Brady in his rookie season, especially when Cameron Brate is missing. Brate missed both practices so far this week, which looks favorably towards Otton being the starter on Thursday night. In the two games where he’s been the sole starter, Ottons lines have been 6 receptions for 43 yards and 4 receptions for 64 yards. Looking back over the season so far, the Ravens are susceptible to giving up yards to tight ends. In the 7 games, only Dawson Knox (3 rec for 40 yards) had less than 4 receptions completed, and only Jonnu Smith & Tyler Conklin went for less than 35 yards. As well as this, 4 of the 7 tight ends found themselves in the end zone (Bellinger, Hurst, Gesicki & Conklin). With him being the sole starter I’d confidently take his receiving yards, but if you’re wanting a little more he’s +330 to score a touchdown at any time.
Devin Duvernay longest reception anything up to over 20.5 yards (-115)
This is a prop I’ve had some luck with so far this season so let’s see if we can keep it going. Devin Duvernay is having a mini third-year breakout on a Ravens offense that’s had some injury woes. Though Bateman missed a couple of games, Duvernay is currently slightly ahead of him in target share (14.9%) which puts him second overall. In 5 of the 7 games so far he’s topped 42 yards, but more interestingly his longest reception has been at least 21 yards in 6 of the 7 games. If you can find the prop around that number I’d jump on it. His improvement has been noticeable from last year, his yards per target is up to 10.1 and his yards per reception is 14.1. So Jackson consistently sees him as a deeper threat on this offense. Furthermore, Mark Andrews missed both practices on a short turnaround, after his surprisingly dreadful zero-catch game at the weekend. Finally, Carlton Davis III, Antoine Winfield, and Sean Murphy-Bunting have been ruled out of the game for the Bucs, which leaves rookie 5th-round pick Zyon Mccollum alongside Jamal Dean. Expect the Ravens to throw the ball deep at times throughout the game to try and take advantage of the Bucs’ injuries on defense.
Bonus Pick: Ryan Succop over 6.5 kicking points (-115)
The Bucs rank tied for 27th in touchdowns when in the RedZone (47.37%), and after a paltry 3 points against the Panthers, I’m expecting Brady to turn it on to again avoid his second ever 3 loss streak. Even if they don’t end up winning, expect Brady to try his utmost, and with the Raven’s pass defense ranked 26th in yards allowed (261) they should find some room downfield to get into scoring positions.
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.