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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Giants at 49ers

George Kittle

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

It’s already week 3, and after a dramatic comeback victory against the Cardinals last Sunday, the New York Giants (1-1) travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers (2-0) in a matchup that sees the home team start as -10 favorites. This line should be no surprise as the Giants travel on a short week and are now without star running back Saquon Barkley after he injured his ankle late in last weeks game. We’re 5-3 on the season, so let’s take a look as always with the Underdog Fantasy app, who for this one also have a Daniel Jones over 0.5 passing yards special, so make sure to check that out.

Daniel Jones over 214.5 passing yards

So far this season the Giants have been less than inspiring through the first 2 weeks, and I don’t see things getting much better for them, not this week at least. However, the 49’ers have shown one sign of weakness, their pass defense. After 2 games, they rank 31st in pass completions allowed per game (32.5) and 23rd in passing yards allowed per game (247.5). Oddly enough, Daniel Jones has averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game so far, and with Saquon Barkley missing for this one, it’s only going to mean they have to throw it more. The 49’ers are tied 3rd for rushing yards allowed per game (65), so don’t expect Matt Breida or Gary Brightwell to be topping 20 rush attempts. After shaking off a tough performance in week 1, he threw for 321 yards on Sunday and finished with a 70.3% completion rate. I have little doubt Jones can throw 215 or more against a team that allowed Kenny Pickett to throw for 232 yards.

Darren Waller 4+ receptions

Sticking with the Giants for now, as I mentioned earlier Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants and so Jones is going to need to produce, more than usual. Already this season Waller leads the Giants in targets (13) and receptions (9), and with the 49ers struggling to stop the passing game so far, I’d anticipate him seeing at least 6 or 7 targets as they inevitably chase the game. As mentioned, the 49ers are allowing 32.5 completions per game, and if Waller continues with his 20.3% target share, you’d have to imagine he could have a monster night if the game doesn’t get away from the Giants early like in week 1. I have him projected for just under 6 receptions.

Jake Moody over 1.5 field goals

I’m knocking on wood as I type this, but rookie kicker Jake Moody has yet to miss a single kick in his debut season. The 49ers spent a third round pick on Moody which shows how highly they regard him and he’s showing us exactly why, as he’s hit 3 field goals in back to back games. Through the first 2 games, the 49ers already have 4 interceptions from their opposition and I’m fully expecting this to continue against a Giants team ranking 31st in turnover ratio (-4) with 3 interceptions and 1 fumble for a loss. Of Moodys 6 field goals, 5 of them have been from 41 yards or less, and 3 of those were 32 or less. So San Fran are getting into serious scoring positions often, tied 5th for redzone scoring attempts per game (4) but they’re often having to settle for field goals. With them scoring 30 points against both the Rams and the Steelers, I struggle to see an outcome where the 49ers don’t reach that total again and Moody should have plenty to do once more.

George Kittle 4+ receptions

As it’s just been announced that Brandon Aiyuk is a game-time decision as he deals with a shoulder injury, I have to wonder how hard they’d push him even if he plays on a short week. This could mean George Kittle sees a little more action. Currently he ranks 3rd on the team in target share (17.3%) but has only had 3 receptions in both games. After seeing Zach Ertz have 6 receptions for 56 yards on Sunday, I expect Kittle could have a similar impact as the 2nd target option for Brock Purdy, even with McCaffrey there as well, I could see their star running back having a slight downturn in production with it being a quick turnaround in games. The Giants rank 9th in passing yards allowed (185.5) but that number may be skewed by their week 1 humiliation by the Cowboys, in a game where Dak really didn’t have to throw the ball all that much. If Joshua Dobbs is completing 21 passes for 228 yards, Brock Purdy should have no trouble carving open this New York defense.


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