Week 9 TNF Prop Bets
What happens when an irresistible force meets an object that always allows itself to be moved? The only unbeaten team left, the Philadelphia Eagles (7-0), travel to Houston to play the Texans (1-5-1) with one of the biggest spreads for a road team this season (Eagles -14), should be an easy win, right? On paper, it seems like the Eagles will wake up on Friday as an 8-0 team, but these short weeks always throw up a few surprises and there are no gimmes in the NFL.
Miles Sanders Over 79.5 rushing yards (-130)
The Texans rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game so far this season, and by a considerable amount (186). They’re also four days removed from Derrick Henry torching them, rushing for 219 yards (32 carries) & 3 touchdowns. In the 7 games they’ve played so far, the Texans have conceded 100 or more rushing yards to a lead running back on 4 of those occasions: Derrick Henry (219), Josh Jacobs (143), Khalil Herbert (153) & Jonathan Taylor (161). As far as the other 3, Austin Ekeler (60) topped 100 total scrimmage with 49 receiving yards and Travis Etienne (71) & Javonte Williams (75) were both splitting carries with James Robinson & Melvin Gordon respectively. As if this wasn’t damning enough, the first 5 backs mentioned all scored a touchdown, with Taylor being the only one without multiple. The Broncos & Jaguars were unable to score a touchdown in their games with the Texans, so this only strengthens the idea that if a team is able to score a touchdown against the Texans, it’ll likely be to a running back. The only difference with Sanders compared to the other backs mentioned is that the Eagles also have Jalen Hurts who can move the ball with his feet as well as his hands. That being said, I could easily see both of them topping their yard totals for the evening with some spare change, so if you’re feeling up to it, Hurts’ number sits at a very achievable 41.5.
Davis Mills Under 221.5 yards passing (-145)
In 7 games against the Eagles this season, only Kyler Murray (250) has surpassed this figure against what has been a strong Philadelphia pass defense. The Cardinals also had a stronger receiving core (Brown, Moore & Ertz) to throw to, as opposed to the Texans, especially with Brandin Cooks questionable to play after the lack of trade talks forced him to skip practice on Tuesday. Davis Mills has been far from stellar this season, ranking 25th in true passer rating (76.26) and throwing just 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. In a game I believe will be spent mainly with the ball in the hands of running backs, and a Philly defense ranked 4th in passing yards allowed (184) and 2nd in yards allowed per reception (8.2), I don’t foresee Mills having 25-30 completions in this match in order to top his total. Only Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence (both 2) have thrown more than one touchdown against the Eagles this season as well, so you could also make an argument for Mills under 1.5 touchdowns thrown (-280).
Total field goals over 3.5 (+125)
Now the real exciting stuff. In the last 5 weeks in games played on a Thursday night, there have been 4 or more total field goals scored on 4 of the 5 occasions, the one outlier was 2 in the drab 12-7 matchup between the Bears and Commanders. Although their rush defense has been appalling, the Texans actually rank 5th in redzone defense, only allowing an opposition touchdown scored on 47% of redzone appearances, with Philly ranked 15th (54.55%). On the flip side, the Texans are ranked 19th in scoring touchdowns in the redzone (53.33%), and the Eagles a fair bit higher at 6th (65.38%). What does this mean for the game? The Eagles should be able to march straight through the Texans’ defense toward the redzone but may find themselves having to kick a field goal or two between touchdowns. Similarly, the Texans struggle in the redzone only scoring a touchdown around half the time, and Ka’imi Fairbairn has attempted at least 2 field goals in every game except their most recent game against the Titans. If you’re not 100% confident in this, i’d pivot to Jake Elliot’s kicking points at over 7.5 (-135).
Dameon Pierce Over 62.5 rushing yards (-120)
This is a line to be taken advantage of after a blip last week. Pierce since week 2 has topped 69 yards on every occasion, except for last week against the Titans (35). The reason likely for that is that the Titans rank 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game (89). In comparison, the Eagles rank 15th in rushing yards allowed (117), and from what we’ve seen so far this season, even when in a losing position, the Texans will keep putting the ball in Pierce’s hands to pound the football. In a game that I believe will be a little closer than the 14-point spread suggests, I can see Pierce seeing plenty of touches throughout the game, especially if the Texans can somehow get ahead early on.
Miles Sanders anytime TD (-122)
As mentioned in the first section about his rushing yardage, in every game against the Texan this season where a team has scored a touchdown, the other team’s lead running back has scored at least once, and most often multiple times. On this occasion, you can make a strong case then both Sanders and Hurts (-110) will both score a touchdown, but I’m sticking with the theme of lead backs on the stronger team getting into the endzone. Sanders to score 2+ touchdowns could also be a nice play at +360, with Hurts to score multiple rushing touchdowns at an even nicer +450, something he’s done on 2 occasions already this season.
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.
