NFL Playoff Picks: Jaguars vs Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview

AFC Divisional Round Matchup

Point Spread: Jaguars +9.0 | Total Points: 52.5

As the Jaguars prepare for this AFC Divisional Round matchup, the team has an overall record of 9-8. This includes riding a current 5 game-win streak. Against AFC opponents, they have a record of 8-4. The Jaguars are looking to add another win after knocking off Los Angeles Chargers by a score of 31-30. Not only did they win the game, but they also covered the spread a 2.0-point underdogs. With their combined 61 points, the two teams exceeded the betting over-under number of 46.

Heading into this week’s matchup against Jacksonville, the Chiefs have won 5 straight games and have a current record of 14-3. In their final regular season game, the Chiefs defeated the Las Vegas Raiders by a score of 31-13 and covered the spread as -8.5 point spread as the betting favorite. The team’s combined scoring of 44 points fell below the posted betting line of 52.

Jaguars vs Chiefs History

In the previous matchup between the two teams, the Chiefs came out on top by a score of 27-17. This matchup took place back in week 10. Not only did the Chiefs win the game straight up, but they also covered the spread as 9.5-point favorites. The two team’s offense’s combined to score 44 points. This figure was below the over-under betting line of 51.5.

In the last 3 games between Jacksonville and Kansas City, the Chiefs have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 13 points per contest. Across the last 3 head-to-head matchups, Kansas City is averaging 32 points compared to Jacksonville at 19. The last 3 times that the Chiefs have hosted Jacksonville, they have a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, Kansas City holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 42, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Notable Injuries

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Jamal Agnew (Shoulder) Questionable
  • Brandon Scherff (Abdomen) Questionable
  • Trevor Lawrence (Toe) Questionable
  • Ross Matiscik (Back) Questionable
  • Kendric Pryor (Shoulder) Questionable
  • Luke Fortner (Back) Questionable

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Ankle) Questionable
  • Frank Clark (Groin) Questionable
  • Mecole Hardman (Pelvis) Questionable
  • Jody Fortson (Elbow) Questionable

Keys To Victory: Jacksonville Jaguars

Against Kansas City, the Jaguars will look to continue their strong offensive play, as they are sitting 10th in the league at 23.8 points per game. For the season, they have an average scoring differential of 3.2 points per game. Look for the Jaguars to rely heavily on the passing attack in this week’s matchup, as not only are they one of the better teams at moving the ball through the air, but they have a good matchup against a Chiefs defense giving up 220.9 yards per game vs the pass. For the season, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence is averaging 34.5 passing attempts per game and has posted one of the better passer ratings in the league (95.2). This week, he is facing off against the NFL’s 18th-ranked defense at defending the pass. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Christian Kirk, who comes into the game with 1108 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 36.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.

This year, the ground game has not been a huge part of the Jaguars’ offense as their current production of 124.5 yards per game places them near the NFL average. This week could be a struggle for the unit, as the Chiefs have been tough to run against this season. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Travis Etienne Jr., who is averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. Through 17 games, he has rushed for a total of 1125 yards on the ground.

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the league’s 1st-ranked scoring offense into Kansas City, averaging 297.8 passing yards per game. The Chiefs will continue turning to the pass on offense, as they throw the ball an average of 38.3 times per contest. Overall, Mahomes has put together a passer rating of 105.2 while throwing for 5250 yards. The team’s top receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has caught 77.2% of the passes thrown his way and has accumulated 933 receiving yards.

In this week’s matchup, Isiah Pacheco is in line to get the majority of the carries and comes into the game with 830 yards, 23rd among running backs. This season, they have outrushed their opponent in 52.9% of their games.

Betting Trends

  • Jacksonville is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Jacksonville is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
  • Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.


This should be great game with two high powered offenses. The Jaguars are just happy to be playing after the impossible comeback they pulled off last week and should play loose. The Cheifs are rested and have arguably the best Quarterback in the game. We’re predicitng a back and forth game, one where the Chiefs win but the Jag’s cover.

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