NBA Best Bets for Monday

NBA Bets Monday 1

Today’s NBA slate of action includes 10 games. Right now, the Mavericks are the largest favorite of the day as -14.5 point favorites over the Wizards. On the other end, the closest point spread belongs to a matchup between the Warriors and Jazz, with the Warriors coming in as -1 point favorites. Looking at the betting lines, 5 of the 10 games of the games have the home teams as the favorite while the road teams are favored in 5 of the 10 games.

Best Bets

Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Hornets

Pacers: -11 | Over/Under: 238.5

The Pacers and Hornets are set to face off at 7:00 ET in a matchup that features a Pacers team that is 4th in the league in pace compared to a Hornets team that is 21st. The Pacers are favored by 11 and the over/under is 238.5. This game can be seen on BSSE.

In today’s game versus the Pacers, the BAKER model is projecting Miles Bridges to shoot 47.1% from the field and score 21 points. On the season, he is averaging 19.3 PPG at home on 46.4% shooting. Look for Tyrese Haliburton to match Bridges with 21 points, as he is averaging 22.1 PPG. Pascal Siakam is also projected to finish with 21 points.

In terms of steals, our BAKER game projections have the Pacers getting 8 compared to the Hornets at 6. The Pacers are expected to go 38/65 on their two-point field goal attempts and finish with a field goal percentage 50.5%. As for the Hornets, they are projected to make 12 free-throws and hit 10 three-pointers at a 35.7% clip.

Pacers Injury Report

  • Jalen Smith (Questionable) Back

Hornets Injury Report

  • Cody Martin (Probable) Knee
  • LaMelo Ball (Out) Ankle
  • Mark Williams (Out) Back

BAKER Prediction: Pacers 139 – Hornets 84

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Pelicans: -8.5 | Over/Under: 222.5

The Pelicans are favored by 8.5 heading into this Southwest Division matchup. The game is set to start at 8:00 ET at FedExForum and will be broadcasted on BSSE.

According to the BAKER model, Brandon Ingram is projected to finish with a team-best 22 points today, shooting 1/4 from deep. Zion Williamson is expected to be the second-leading scorer with 21 points. On the other side, Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging 22.3 points per game and is projected to score 22 points today. His field goal percentage for the season is 44.8%, with a true shooting percentage of 56.0%.

Our BAKER game projections for this matchup have the Pelicans coming up with 8 steals, while the Grizzlies are expected to finish with 6. As for their shooting percentages, the Pelicans are projected to shoot 49.0% from the field and go 35/64 on their two-point attempts. On the other hand, the Grizzlies are expected to hit 52.9% of their two-point attempts and shoot 35.5% from three-point range against the Pelicans.

Pelicans Injury Report

  • Cody Zeller (Questionable) Knee
  • Zion Williamson (Questionable) Foot
  • Dyson Daniels (Out) Knee

Grizzlies Injury Report

  • Derrick Rose (Doubtful) Ankle
  • Marcus Smart (Out) Finger
  • Ja Morant (Out) Shoulder
  • Brandon Clarke (Out) Achilles
  • Desmond Bane (Out) Ankle
  • Ziaire Williams (Doubtful) Hand
  • Jake LaRavia (Out) Ankle

BAKER Prediction: Pelicans 132 – Grizzlies 82

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers: -9.5 | Over/Under: 229

The 76ers and Cavaliers face off in an Eastern Conference matchup at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. Tip-off for the game is scheduled for 7:00 ET, with the Cavaliers favored by 9.5 points.

In today’s game against the Cavaliers, Tyrese Maxey is projected to finish 8/18 shooting for 24 points. Tobias Harris is averaging 17.7 points per game and projected to finish with 17 points today. When playing at home, Donovan Mitchell is averaging 23.1 points on 47.5% shooting. Today, we have him shooting 47.6% and finishing with 28 points vs. the 76ers.

The BAKER model has the 76ers shooting 47.9% from the field. This includes 53.5% from two-point range and 37.9% from three. The model also predicts the Cavaliers to make 19 free-throws, 16 three-pointers, and shoot 37.2% from deep.

76ers Injury Report

  • Nicolas Batum (Out) Hamstring
  • Joel Embiid (Out) Knee
  • Robert Covington (Out) Knee
  • Mo Bamba (Questionable) Knee
  • De’Anthony Melton (Out) Back

Cavaliers Injury Report

  • Tristan Thompson (Out) Suspension
  • Ty Jerome (Out) Ankle

BAKER Prediction: Cavaliers 134 – 76ers 90

Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks

Hawks: -4 | Over/Under: 236.5

The Bulls and Hawks face off in a matchup featuring a Bulls team that prefers to play at a slower pace compared to a Hawks squad that is 3rd in the league in pace. The Hawks are 4-point favorites and the game is scheduled for 7:30 ET, airing on NBCS.

DeMar DeRozan’s projected shooting line for today’s game against the Hawks is 8-of-17 from the field, which should result in 23 points. Coby White is averaging 19.3 points per game and is projected to finish with 19 points today. As for the Hawks, Trae Young is averaging 27.1 points per game and is projected to finish with 27 points today. This season, he is shooting 43.2% from the field and has a true shooting percentage of 58.6%.

On the defensive side, the BAKER model has the Bulls ending the game with 7 steals and 41 rebounds. Their field goal percentage is expected to be 47.5%. The BAKER model also has the Hawks getting to the free-throw line 25 times and hitting 21. From the field, the Hawks are expected to go 45/99 for 45.5%.

Bulls Injury Report

  • Zach LaVine (Out) Ankle
  • Alex Caruso (Questionable) Toe
  • Lonzo Ball (Out) Knee
  • Torrey Craig (Probable) Toe
  • Coby White (Probable) Ankle
  • Patrick Williams (Out) Foot

Hawks Injury Report

  • Clint Capela (Out) Adductor
  • Wesley Matthews (Out) Illness
  • Patty Mills (Doubtful) Illness
  • Bruno Fernando (Probable) Illness
  • Mouhamed Gueye (Out) Back

BAKER Prediction: Hawks 126 – Bulls 100

Washington Wizards vs. Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks: -14.5 | Over/Under: 248.5

The Wizards are 14.5 point underdogs heading into Dallas. They are in the middle of a six game losing streak. On the other side, the Mavericks are 30-23 and are currently on a four game winning streak. The game can be watched on BSSW at 8:30 ET.

In road games this year, Kyle Kuzma has averaged 22.3 points, which is slightly higher than his season average of 21.8. Today, he is projected to lead the Wizards with 21 points. On the other side, Luka Doncic is averaging 34.5 points per game and is expected to finish with 32 points today. His field goal percentage for the season is 49.1%, and his true shooting percentage is 62.0%.

According to the BAKER engine, the Wizards are expected to shoot 45.7% from the field and hit 16 free throws on 20 attempts. As for the Mavericks, they are projected to hit 18 threes at a 37.5% clip. When it comes to assists, the BAKER engine has them finishing with 31.

Wizards Injury Report

  • Isaiah Livers (Out) Hip

Mavericks Injury Report

  • Kyrie Irving (Probable) Thumb
  • Dante Exum (Out) Knee
  • Maxi Kleber (Probable) Nose
  • Luka Doncic (Probable) Nose
  • Dereck Lively II (Out) Nose

BAKER Prediction: Mavericks 147 – Wizards 112

Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz

Warriors: -1 | Over/Under: 242

The Warriors are favored by 1 point on the road as they take on the Jazz in a Western Conference showdown. The game will get underway at 9:00 ET at Delta Center in Salt Lake City.

Look for Stephen Curry to lead the Warriors today with 27 points on 47.4% shooting. He has been averaging 28.1 points per game this season. On the other side, Lauri Markkanen is projected to finish with 38 fantasy points, which includes 24 points and 8 rebounds.

In terms of shooting percentages, we have the Warriors going 15/40 from three and finishing with an overall field goal percentage of 48.4%. Against the Warriors, the Jazz are expected to shoot 33.3% from three and hit 55.6% of their 54 two-point attempts.

Warriors Injury Report

  • Chris Paul (Out) Hand
  • Gui Santos (Questionable) Knee

Jazz Injury Report

  • Otto Porter Jr. (Questionable) Trade Pending
  • Brice Sensabaugh (Questionable) Hip

BAKER Prediction: Warriors 124 – Jazz 111

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers: -4 | Over/Under: 222.5

The Timberwolves are 4-point underdogs as they travel to take on the Clippers at Arena. The over/under for the game is set at 222.5, as both teams are among the slower paced teams in the NBA. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:30 ET.

The top two scorers for the Clippers today are expected to be Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard is projected to finish with 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists while George is averaging 22.5 points per contest and is expected to finish with 22 points. On the other side, Anthony Edwards is projected to lead the Timberwolves with 25 points on 47.4% shooting. This season, he is averaging 25.9 points per game.

According to the BAKER prediction model, the Timberwolves are projected to make 13 three-pointers at a rate of 40.6%. They are also expected to go 18/24 from the free-throw line. On the other side, the Clippers are expected to shoot 38.2% from three and 55.7% on their two-point attempts.

Timberwolves Injury Report

  • Jaden McDaniels (Questionable) Finger
  • Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

Clippers Injury Report

  • Moussa Diabate (Out) Hand

BAKER Prediction: Clippers 129 – Timberwolves 114

Bold Bets

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Nuggets: -1.5 | Over/Under: 232.5

At 8:00 ET, the Nuggets (36-17) take on the Bucks (34-19) in a non-conference matchup. Overall, the Nuggets are 1.5 point favorites on the road.

Nikola Jokic is projected to score 26 points against the Bucks, which is right in line with his season average of 26.2 PPG. The BAKER model is also predicting 21 points for Jamal Murray. On the other side, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.7 points per game, and the model is projecting him to finish with 31 points in this matchup. He has a season-long field goal percentage of 60.9% and a true shooting percentage of 64.6%.

According to the BAKER engine, the Nuggets are expected to shoot 49.0% from the field and go 17/23 from the free-throw line. On the other side, the Bucks are projected to make 15 threes on a shooting percentage of 38.5%. In terms of assists, the BAKER engine has the Bucks finishing with 26.

Nuggets Injury Report

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Questionable) Hamstring
  • Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
  • Michael Porter Jr. (Probable) Knee

Bucks Injury Report

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
  • Khris Middleton (Out) Ankle
  • Damian Lillard (Probable) Ankle

BAKER Prediction: Bucks 125 – Nuggets 123

Bets To Avoid

San Antonio Spurs vs. Toronto Raptors

Raptors: -6 | Over/Under: 234

The Raptors come into today’s game with a record of 19-34 and have played their last two games at home. On the other side, the Spurs are 10-43 and are 6 point underdogs. The game can be seen on TSN.

In today’s game, the BAKER model has Scottie Barnes finishing with 19 points. He is averaging 21.4 PPG at home on 47.6% shooting. Against the Spurs, he is projected to shoot 46.7% and score 19 points. Devin Vassell is averaging 18.9 PPG for the season and the model has him finishing with 19 points today. It also has Victor Wembanyama putting up 18 points.

In this matchup, the BAKER game projections have the Raptors finishing with 9 steals compared to the Spurs at 7. On their two-point field goal attempts, the Raptors are expected to go 33/63 and finish with an overall field goal percentage 46.5%. Defensively, the Spurs are expected to finish with 7 steals and grab a total of 46 boards. The BAKER model has them finishing with an overall field goal percentage of 44.9%.

Spurs Injury Report

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (Out) Not With Team
  • Charles Bassey (Out) Left Knee

Raptors Injury Report

NoneBAKER Prediction: Raptors 125 – Spurs 117

New York Knicks vs. Houston Rockets

Knicks: -4.5 | Over/Under: 220.5

The Rockets are set to host the Knicks in a non-conference matchup, with the Knicks favored by 4.5 points. The Knicks have a record of 33-20, while the Rockets are 23-29. This game is set to get underway at 8:00 ET.

The BAKER model projects Jalen Brunson to lead the Knicks in scoring with 27 points on a 50.0% shooting percentage. As for the Rockets, Alperen Sengün is averaging 21.3 points per game and is projected to finish with 19 points today. He has a season field goal percentage of 54.1% and a true shooting percentage of 59.1%.

In this game, the BAKER projection model expects the Knicks to make 15 out of 19 free throws and hit 12 three-pointers at a rate of 37.5%. The BAKER model also predicts that the Rockets will hit 9 threes at a rate of 34.6%. When it comes to assists, the Rockets are expected to finish with 19.

Knicks Injury Report

  • Julius Randle (Out) Shoulder
  • OG Anunoby (Out) Elbow
  • Isaiah Hartenstein (Questionable) Achilles
  • Mitchell Robinson (Out) Ankle
  • Jericho Sims (Probable) Illness

Rockets Injury Report

  • Steven Adams (Out) Knee
  • Fred VanVleet (Out) Adductor
  • Alperen Sengün (Questionable) Back
  • Tari Eason (Out) Leg
  • Cam Whitmore (Out) Ankle

BAKER Prediction: Knicks 99 – Rockets 94

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