Saturday Night Football Preview: Bills vs. Dolphins
AFC East Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Dolphins +7.5 | Total Points: 42.0
As the Dolphins prepare for their AFC East matchup against Buffalo, they have an overall record of 8-5 but are in the midst of 2 game losing streak. Heading into week 14, the Miami Dolphins are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Chargers by a score of 23-17, giving them a loss against an AFC opponent. Heading into the game, the Dolphins were expected to win as -3.0 point favorites. This outcome resulted in both a straight-up and ATS loss. Together, the two teams combined score remained below the over-under betting line of 54.
This week, the Bills travel to take on the Dolphins in the midst of a 4 game-winning streak and a record of 10-3. Looking back to last week, the Bills defeated the New York Jets by a score of 20-12. Leading into their last game, the team did not cover the spread as -10.0 point favorites. The over-under betting total going into the game was 43, which the teams did not surpass.
Dolphins vs Bills History
The last time these two teams played came back in week 3, where the Dolphins picked up a 21-19 win over the Bills. Not only did the Dolphins win straight up, but they also covered the spread as 4.5-point underdogs. The two team’s offense’s combined to score 40 points. This figure was below the over-under betting line of 54.0.
When looking back on the last 3 head-to-head matchups between Miami and Buffalo, the Bills hold the edge with a record of 2-1. Not only does the team have the better record, but they have won in a convincing fashion, posting an average scoring differential of 16 points. The last 3 times that the Bills have hosted Miami, they have a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, Buffalo holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 3-2 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 50, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.
Notable Injuries
Miami Dolphins
- Kader Kohou (Thumb/neck) Questionable
- Liam Eichenberg (Knee) Questionable
- River Cracraft (Calf) Questionable
- Durham Smythe (Quad/knee) Questionable
- Jeff Wilson Jr. (Hip) Questionable
- Elijah Campbell (Concussion) Questionable
- Justin Zimmer (Back) Questionable
- Tyreek Hill (Ankle) Questionable
- Elandon Roberts (Ribs) Probable
- Teddy Bridgewater (Knee) Questionable
- Eric Rowe (Hamstring) Questionable
- Terron Armstead (Toe/pectoral/knee) Questionable
Buffalo Bills
- Reggie Gilliam (Ankle) Questionable
- Cam Lewis (Forearm) Probable
- Josh Allen (Elbow) Probable
- Matt Milano (Knee) Questionable
- Ike Boettger (Achilles) Questionable
- Ryan Bates (Ankle) Questionable
- Ed Oliver (Pectoral) Questionable
- Mitch Morse (Elbow) Probable
- Jordan Phillips (Shoulder) Questionable
Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins
Against Buffalo, the Dolphins will look to continue their strong offensive play, as they are sitting 9th in the league at 24.3 points per game. This season, the Miami offense has accounted for exactly half of the points in their games. Look for the Dolphins to rely heavily on the passing attack in this week’s matchup, as not only are they one of the better teams at moving the ball through the air, but they have a good matchup against a Bills defense giving up 219.5 yards per game vs the pass. At the quarterback position, Tua Tagovailoa has completed 65.5% of his passes, leading to a total of 3004 yards. In addition, his passer rating of 108.2 ranks well compared to other QBs. One thing to keep an eye on that might affect the Miami offense is the health status of wide receiver Tyreek Hill as he is listed as questionable on the injury report. So far, Hill leads the team with 1460 receiving yards while catching 71.9% of the balls thrown his way.
This week, don’t expect the Dolphins to find much success on the ground, as they are not only one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, but they have a tough matchup against a Bills defense giving up just 99.9 yards per game against the run. An area of concern for the Dolphins will be if their top running back Jeff Wilson Jr. is able to play as he is listed as questionable. This year, Wilson Jr. has rushed 706 yards while averaging 5.2 yards per attempt.
Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills
Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the team’s 4th ranked scoring offense will need to be on top of their game to cover the spread as 7.5 point betting favorites. For the season, Allen is averaging 273.3 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 7th among quarterbacks. Allen is coming off a 147-yard passing yard performance, leading to a passer rating of 86.5. Stefon Diggs has been targeted 133 times and has caught 70.7% of the passes thrown his way. He comes into the game with a total of 1239 receiving yards.
Running back Devin Singletary comes into the game averaging 49.4 yards per game on the ground and heads the league’s 8th-ranked team in rush yards per contest. For the season, Singletary has a yards per-attempt figure of 4.4 yards per attempt. This season, they have outrushed their opponent in 76.9% of their games.
Betting Trends
- Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Miami is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Miami is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
- Miami is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
Prediction
The weather for this game is all anyone seems to be talking about. The Dolphins are a warm-weather team that will be likely headed into their first snow game of the year. Despite the concerns, we think the Dolphins will keep it close. We like the Bills to win and the Dolphins to cover.
