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Dolphins vs Bears Pick and Preview

Justin Fields

Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears Pick and Preview

Non-Conference NFL Matchup

Point Spread: Bears +5.0 | Total Points: 45.5

This season, the Dolphins have an overall win percentage of 62.5% on a record of 5-3. Heading into the game, they have rattled off 2 straight wins. Last week, Miami played in a non-conference game vs the Detroit Lions, winning by a score of 31-27. Miami not only won the game but also covered the -3.5 point spread as the betting favorite. The teams combined for a total of 58 points, which surpassed the over-under betting line of 52.

Leading into their week 9 NFC North matchup against Miami, the Bears have an overall record of 3-5 and will look to get back in the win column, as they are coming off a 49-29 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Not only did Chicago lose the game, but they also failed to cover the spread. Going into the game, the team was 9.5 point underdogs. In terms of the over-under, the teams combined for 78 points, which surpassed the betting line of 42.

Dolphins vs Bears History

Miami and Chicago don’t have a lot of recent familiarities, as they did not play each other last year. When looking back on the last 3 times the Dolphins and Bears have played each other, Miami has the edge with a record of 2-1. However, the average scoring differential in these matchups is dead even, with each team averaging 19 points per game.

This week, the Bears will look to do a better job defending their home field, as they have gone 1-2 in the last 3 games of this series as the host. In terms of betting, Miami holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings.

Notable Injuries

Miami Dolphins

  • Jaylen Waddle (Shoulder) Probable
  • Jevon Holland (Wrist) Probable
  • Austin Jackson (Ankle/calf) Questionable
  • Raekwon Davis (Knee) Questionable
  • Tanner Conner (Knee) Questionable
  • River Cracraft (Illness) Questionable
  • Jerome Baker (Hip) Questionable
  • Durham Smythe (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Zach Sieler (Hand) Probable
  • Andrew Van Ginkel (Chest/rib) Questionable
  • Christian Wilkins (Hand) Probable
  • Terron Armstead (Toe) Questionable
  • John Jenkins (Personal) Questionable
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (Back) Probable
  • Brandon Shell (Groin) Questionable
  • Clayton Fejedelem (Groin) Questionable

Chicago Bears

  • Kyler Gordon (Hip) Questionable
  • Larry Borom (Concussion) Questionable
  • Teven Jenkins (Back) Questionable
  • Byron Pringle (Calf) Questionable
  • Eddie Jackson (Hip) Questionable
  • Cody Whitehair (Knee) Questionable

Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will take the field as the leader of the NFL’s 16th-ranked scoring offense at 22.25 points per game. For the season, Tagovailoa has the team sitting 3rd in passing yards, even with a below-average number of attempts. Heading into play, he has a passer rating of 112.7. Miami will need to continue getting receiver Tyreek Hill involved, as he has caught 75.0% of the passes thrown his way for a total of 961 receiving yards.

Running back Raheem Mostert is expected to receive a majority of the carries and is averaging 56.5 yards per game on the ground. However, he heads a Miami rushing attack ranked just 28th in rushing yards per contest. For the year, the Dolphins have outrushed their opponents in half of their matchups. Overall, their production on the ground is below expectation, as their opponents are allowing an average of 116.55 rushing yards per game.

Keys To Victory: Chicago Bears

Chicago is struggling to produce in the passing game, despite their offensive line doing a good job at protecting the quarterback. So far, the team is ranked just 32 in passing yards per contest but have allowed some of the fewest hits on the quarterback in the league. The Chicago rushing attack isn’t to blame for the team’s mediocre scoring numbers, as they are above the league average in both yards per attempt (5.3) and yards per game (188.5). Overall, the Bears are averaging just 19.5 points per game.

Betting Trends

  • Miami is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Miami is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Miami is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
  • Miami is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.


We feel this will be a close game, while we have the Dolphins winning, we like the Bears to cover the spread. See all our Week 9 NFL Picks here.

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