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Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons Pick and Preview

Cordarrelle Patterson Fantasy

NFC Matchup

Point Spread: Bears +3.0 | Total Points: 49.5

This week, the Bears will look to snap their current 3 game losing streak with a victory over the Falcons. Heading into action, the team has a below .500 record of 3-7. This week, the Chicago Bears are hoping to get back in the win column after falling 31-30 to the Detroit Lions. The loss was costly, as it came against a NFC North opponent. With the loss, Chicago failed to cover the spread, as they had a -3.0 advantage on the spread. Going into the game, the over-under total was set at 48 points, which the teams surpassed.

As the Falcons prepare for their NFC South matchup against Chicago, they have an overall record of 4-6, and are in the midst of 2 game losing streak. The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 25-15 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Going into the game, the oddsmakers had the Falcons as the -2.5 favorite. Together, the two teams combined score remained below the over-under betting line of 41.

Quick Links For Week 11

Bears vs. Falcons History

There were no matchups between Chicago and Atlanta in the 2021-2022 season. In the last 3 head-to-head matchups, the Bears are averaging 24 points per game, compared to the Falcons at 20. These figures have led to Chicago posting a record of 2-1.

Atlanta will look to do a better job at home in this series, as across their 3 most home recent games vs Chicago, they are just 1-2. In terms of betting, Chicago holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 21.0, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Notable Injuries

Chicago Bears

  • Kyler Gordon (Knee) Probable
  • Cole Kmet (Thigh) Questionable
  • Kindle Vildor (Ankle) Questionable
  • Teven Jenkins (Hip) Questionable
  • N’Keal Harry (Illness) Questionable
  • Dane Cruikshank (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad (Knee) Questionable

Atlanta Falcons

  • A.J. Terrell (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Feleipe Franks (Calf) Questionable
  • Jalen Mayfield (Back) Questionable
  • Colby Gossett (Personal) Questionable
  • Erik Harris (Ankle) Questionable

Keys To Victory: Chicago Bears

On offense, the Bears come into the game ranked 20th in the NFL at 21.7 points per game. Despite the team scoring at a rate similar to the league average, their lackluster defensive play has led to an average scoring differential of -3.0 points per game. In this week’s matchup, look for the Bears’ offense to attack the Falcons secondary, as the unit has had its problems defending the pass. Chicago quarterback Justin Fields comes into this week’s game having thrown for 1489 yards and has a passer rating of just 86.4. However, there is reason to think he could put together a good game, vs. the league’s 32nd ranked passing defense. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Darnell Mooney, who comes into the game with 464 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 31.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.

On the ground, the Bears should be able to put in yet another strong performance, as they are currently the 1st ranked team in rush yards per game and face off vs a defense that is vulnerable up front. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Khalil Herbert, who is averaging 6.0 yards per attempt. Through 10 games, he has rushed for a total of 643 yards on the ground.

Keys To Victory: Atlanta Falcons

Marcus Mariota and the Atlanta offense enter this week 11 matchup averaging 23.2 points per contest, placing them 12th in the NFL. For the season, Mariota is averaging 174.7 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 38th among quarterbacks. Mariota is coming off a 186 passing yard performance, leading to a passer rating of 89.03. Against the Bears, the team will look to get receiver Drake London involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 6.2 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 407.

Central to this game’s outcome will be if Atlanta will be able to continue running the ball according to their season-long success. On average, the team is accumulating 160.4 yards per game on the ground. If they are able to control the game on the ground, it would also help keep the Bears’ offense off the field.

Betting Trends

  • Chicago is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Chicago is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Chicago is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
  • Chicago is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Prediction

The Bears along with their talented young franchise QB have been making plays as of late, but we still think the Falcons find a way to win at home. We’re picking the Falcons to win & cover.

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