NFC North Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Vikings -7.5 | Total Points: 44.0
Leading into their week 5 NFC North matchup against the Vikings, the Bears have an overall record of 2-2. Last week, the Bears fell by a score of 20-12 to the New York Giants, giving them a loss in the NFC standings. Chicago lost the game by more than anticipated, as the oddsmakers placed Chicago as 3 point underdogs. The two teams combined point total of 32 remained below the betting line of 39.
This week, the Vikings travel to take on the Bears in an NFC North matchup. Heading into the game, the Vikings have won 2 straight games leading to an overall record of 3-1. Minnesota is looking to tack on another victory, as they defeated New Orleans Saints by a score of 28-25 in 4. In terms of betting, Minnesota did not cover the spread in their win, as they entered as the -4.0 point favorites. Going into the game, the over-under total was set at 41 points, which the teams surpassed.
Bears vs. Vikings History
In last year’s two meetings between Chicago and Minnesota, the Vikings picked up wins in each game by scores of 31-17 and 17-9. In the last matchup between Chicago and Minnesota, the Vikings not only came away with a 31-17 victory but also covered the spread as 3.5 point favorites.
In the last 3 head-to-head matchups, the Vikings are averaging 25 points per game, compared to the Bears at 19. These figures have led to Minnesota posting a record of 2-1. Minnesota will look to continue playing well at home in this series, as across their 3 most recent home games vs Chicago, they are just 2-1. In terms of betting, Chicago has struggled vs the spread, going 1-4 in the previous 5 meetings. The over under mark in these games is 3-2.
Notable Injuries
Chicago Bears
- Justin Jones (Hip) Questionable
- Sterling Weatherford (Illness) Questionable
- Jaylon Jones (Illness) Questionable
- Jaylon Johnson (Quad) Questionable
- Matthew Adams (Hamstring) Questionable
- Dane Cruikshank (Hamstring) Questionable
- N’Keal Harry (Ankle) Questionable
- David Montgomery (Knee) Questionable
- Ryan Griffin (Achilles) Questionable
Minnesota Vikings
- Blake Proehl (ACL) Questionable
- Andrew Booth Jr. (Quad) Questionable
- Ben Ellefson (Groin) Questionable
- Za’Darius Smith (Knee) Questionable
- Cameron Dantzler Sr. (Hip) Questionable
- Jalen Nailor (Hamstring) Questionable
Keys To Victory: Chicago Bears
This season, the Bears have had their problems on offense, as through 4 games, they are averaging just 16.0 points per game. The team’s lackluster offense has contributed 45.0% of the scoring in their games, leading to an average point differential of -3.25.
So far, the Bears have been one of the worst passing units in the NFL, averaging just 97 yards per game through the air. But, they may have an opportunity to improve these numbers as Minnesota has struggled in the secondary this year. On the season, quarterback Justin Fields has completed 50.7% of his passes for a total of 471 passing yards. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Darnell Mooney, who comes into the game with 121 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 46.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.
On the ground, the Bears should be able to put in yet another strong performance, as they are currently the 3rd ranked team in rush yards per game, and face off vs a defense that is vulnerable up front. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Khalil Herbert, who is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. Through 4 games, he has rushed for a total of 317 yards on the ground.
Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings
On offense, the Vikings come into the game ranked 15th in the NFL at 21.5 points per game. Even though Minnesota profiles as an average scoring offense, their strong defensive play has led to an average scoring margin of 1.5 points per game.
Look for the Vikings to rely heavily on the passing attack in this week’s matchup, they have been extremely effective at moving the ball through the air. A key matchup to watch will be if they can maintain this production vs the 4th best defense in pass yards allowed per game. At the quarterback position, Kirk Cousins has completed 63.1% of his passes, leading to a total of 1031 yards. In addition, his passer rating of 84.12 ranks well compared to other QB’s. Cousins could add to these numbers with a big performance vs Chicago. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Justin Jefferson, who comes into the game with 393 receiving yards.
This season, yards have been hard to come by on the ground for Minnesota, as they are currently ranked just 22nd in offensive rushing yards per game. But this week’s matchup vs Chicago presents an opportunity to improve this figure, as the Bears defense is one of the worst units at defending the run. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 4.4 yards per attempt. Through 4 games he has rushed for a total of 279 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
- Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Chicago is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
- Chicago is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
Prediction
We believe that Justin Fields and the Bears come out of Minnesota with a loss, but cover the 7.5-point spread.
Pick: Vikings 24-17
