WP Phoenix Open: Golf Betting Tips and Picks

Patrick Cantlay

Golf Betting Tips and Picks

The PGA Tour heads southeast from Northern California to the Phoenix, Arizona, area for the WM Phoenix Open, an event that dates back to 1932. We have 132 players competing this week, and after round 2 on Friday, we will see the top 65 players plus ties advance to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.

There’s a whopping $20M to be won this week, the winner banks a crazy $3.6M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is 7,261 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are huge featuring Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -17.6, and I would expect something similar this week. The -28 tournament record is held by both Phil Mickelson and Mark Calcavecchia in 2013 and 2001, respectively. Place bets on golfers this week who are strong on approach, solid tee to green, sound off the tee, are good around greens, and hit a long ball from the tee blocks.

Three questions that are relevant to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week:

  1. A strong approach game has proved to be fairly important here over the years, so which 10 players have been the best in this stat category over their last 24 rounds? Tom Hoge, Russell Knox, James Hahn, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa, Adam Hadwin, Danny Lee, Tony Finau, and Max Homa.
  2. Which 10 players gained the most strokes total at this event since 2018? Patrick Cantlay (4 rounds), Sahith Theegala (4 rounds), Justin Thomas (20 rounds), Xander Schauffele (20 rounds), Matt Fitzpatrick (4 rounds), Scottie Scheffler (10 rounds), Jhonattan Vegas (4 rounds), Jon Rahm (20 rounds), Tyrrell Hatton (4 rounds), and Garrick Higgo (4 rounds).
  3. What’s my top bet for the week? With the way that Rory McIlroy has been rolling lately, I really like his top 10 odds at +105 to more than double your money.

Below you will find players that I will bet, might bet, and five random bets that interest me. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable or break even in roughly 70% of the weeks I’m active.

5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting

Jon Rahm (+750) – I’m mostly sticking to the top of the board this week with my wagers, and I really like the five golfers I went with. Rahm is an absolute stud and has two victories over his last three starts and has been mostly finishing in the top 8 since last August. Everything is in place for a strong run at the championship this week including a strong track record here, and I’ll be betting him every which way.

Rory McIlroy (+850) – McIlroy has three straight wins if you count his last two PGA Tour starts and his win on the DP World Tour two weeks ago. He’s arguably playing the best golf of his career and I’m all over him this week from a betting perspective – much the same as Rahm above.

Scottie Scheffler (+1200) – His putter is slowly returning to form which makes him very dangerous since his ball striking is immaculate, and he knows how to win now. In fact, his first PGA Tour win came right here last year and it set him up for a huge season in 2021 – 2022. He has five consecutive top 11’s and will likely add another this week. I’m not 100% certain that I’m going to bet him to win outright this week, but I’m all over his top 10 and may venture into top 5 territory also.

Collin Morikawa (+1600) – Morikawa seems hungry to win again and it has been a while since he hoisted a trophy – since July 2021 when he won The Open Championship. He has gone 6th-2nd-3rd over his last three events and his putter has woken up, so he’s a big-time threat again. I’m betting him the same way as Scheffler above this week, and will likely bet him to win before Thursday morning rolls around.

Tony Finau (+4000) – He’s so strong stats wise and he has a trio of wins over his last eleven starts to go with another five more top 9’s during that stretch. He has had a tough go of it at this venue, but did finish runner-up here three years ago. He’s fully in his prime right now and I’m going to bet him to finish top 10 this week, and may do more as my confidence in him is building as the week progresses.

5 Players That I Might Bet

Tom Kim (+2800) – With two wins over his last ten starts and five top 11’s over his last seven starts, Kim really is showing us what he’s capable of on the PGA Tour. He has been positive in the ball-striking category since last July and I suspect that trend will continue for the foreseeable future. Add to it his putter can be downright killer, and that’s a recipe for high finishes at any point in time. I’m likely going to bet him to finish top 10 this week, and I’m almost certain I’ll take his top 20 action, but nothing is set in stone just yet.

Patrick Cantlay (+1800) – It only took one appearance at this tournament to really figure things out as he finished runner-up here a year ago. He has a win, a T2, and a T7 over his last five starts and is solid throughout his bag. I likely won’t bet him to win this week, but I’m intrigued with his top 5 and top 10 odds.

Xander Schauffele (+1200) – Leaving out his withdrawal at the Tournament of Champions and you have a player in Schauffele who has seven top 10’s over his last eleven starts. Every part of his game is strong and when one part of his game pops, he’s right in the mix to hoist trophies. He has been stellar at this tournament finishing no worse than T17 since 2018 and he has gone T2, T3 over the last two years. I’m probably down to bet him to finish top 10 this week and will likely throw down a top 5 wager also.

Keegan Bradley (+6000) – We’re starting to see Bradley find his smooth putting stroke as he gained 7.04 on the greens in his most recent start finishing 2nd at the Farmers Insurance Open, he won five starts ago, and has three top 5’s over his last six starts. He hasn’t blown anyone away at this venue but does have two 20-something finishes here over the last two years. I’m thinking I’ll likely bet him to finish top 20 this week and I’ll likely take a look at his top 10 odds, but will likely refrain from being that aggressive.

Sahith Theegala (+9000) – Theegala has two top 4’s over his last four starts and was superb here last year finishing T3 thanks to gaining strokes across all of the major stat categories. I’m almost certain that I’ll bet him to finish top 20 this week but I can’t get to a top 10 consideration given the ridiculous strength of the field this year.

5 Other Interesting Bets

Tournament Matchup – Jason Day over Tyrrell Hatton (-110) – Day has been playing quite well since last October with six top 21’s in his last seven starts, while Hatton hasn’t competed on the PGA Tour since last October and doesn’t have a top 10 since last August.

To Make the Cut Parlay – Rahm, Im, Hovland, Harman (-140) – All four of these players regularly play weekend golf so I’m fairly confident in making this bet – too bad you can’t quite double your money though.

Nationality Props – South African – Garrick Higgo (+210) – Higgo has been playing some quality golf recently and almost cracked the top 20 here last year. He doesn’t have much competition this week in terms of his home country mates – Christiaan Bezuidenhout is likely his toughest test but I feel pretty good going with Garrick in this situation.

Tournament Specials – Big Guns vs The Field (+190) – I feel as though Rahm or McIlroy are going to win this week, and toss in Schauffele and Scheffler for good measure and this bet looks like a quality one to me. One of these four will likely take it this week, and this bet enables you to 2.9x your wager.

Tournament Trio – Tom Kim, Montgomery, Hatton – Tom Kim to win (+150) – I’m a huge fan of Kim so I’m fairly big on him this week, Montgomery could go through some regression now given he’s so reliant on his putter, and Hatton is decent but usually finishes in the 30’s or 40’s or worse in these types of big events so I’m good with banking on Tom in this trio.

Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!

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