Underdog Fantasy Prop Picks: Week Three
I can’t believe that we have already started week three of the 2023 NFL Season! There have been so many storylines, unfortunate injuries, questionable decisions, etc and it has only been a couple weeks. That’s why the NFL is the best in the business.
For our Underdog Fantasy prop picks, we made an improvement in week two! I went 4-3 with my picks last week and look to build off of that. Looking at prop picks in the early weeks of a new season is always tough; there is still so much we are learning about each of these new teams each week.
With that being said, let’s jump into some week three picks.
2023 Record 7-7 (.500%)
Last Week: 4-3
** Underdog has Lamar Jackson O/U .5 Total Yards – SMASH, that special!*
- I won’t include this in my 7 other prop picks because that’s TOO easy! But figured you should know to add this in your bets.
Kirk Cousins OVER 288.5 Passing Yards (vs LAC)
Ok hear me out, I know that this is a high passing yards prop, but as the Chargers head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, I think this game ends up being a shootout. Both teams are coming off successful 2022 campaigns, and are now 0-2. Each of these teams can’t afford to lose one more game (We all know the percentages of teams that make the playoffs after going 0-3 is not great) Cousins has hit the over on this passing line through each of his first two games against Tampa Bay and Philly, Vegas currently has the total line at 54.5, and I don’t think there is any reason to believe that this should stop. As the Vikings look to get their first win and ease Cam Akers into the fold, expect this to be a pass-happy matchup in a “must-win” game for each team.
Josh Allen OVER 282.5 Pass + Rush Yards (@ WAS)
The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen are looking to build off a huge win in week two against the Raiders, and they get to face the 2-0 Commanders. Last week the Commanders had an impressive Victory over the Broncos, where Russell Wilson threw for 277 yards. Allen and Company will be the toughest challenge thus far for an impressive Commanders defense, Allen has yet to hit this pass/rush prop in 2023, but I think his team will rely on him more come Sunday against an impressive Washington roster.
Miles Sanders UNDER 60.5 Rush Yards (@ SEA)
Andy Dalton and the Panthers are headed to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in week 3. Rookie QB Bryce Young is set to miss 1-2 weeks with an ankle injury. That said, I am not the most confident that Andy Dalton will lead this offense to many sustained drives and points. Given the state of this 0-2 Panthers team, there is a good chance they will be playing from behind for the majority of the game on Sunday. Depending on how far they are down, I could see them having to abandon the run game just because of the basic game script. It appears that the Panthers are looking to uptick recently signed RB Tarik Cohen’s practice reps this week as well, so who knows if he will be active come gameday, but something to monitor. After only rushing for 43 yards against the Saints in week two, I think Sanders continues to struggle against this Seahawks team.
Lamar Jackson OVER 228.5 passing yards (@ BAL)
QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens look to go 3-0 against the Indianapolis Colts come Sunday, and there are plenty of good reasons to think Lamar hits this prop with ease. It’s one of my favorites for the week. The Colts currently rank 29th in the league for “Passing Yards Against” and they have only faced Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud. Jackson is going to be the biggest challenge for them this season so far. With Baltimore bringing in a new Offensive Coordinator, we could see the learning curve in week one, but the Ravens had completely tightened it up in week two against Cincinnati. Jackson threw for 237 yards and 2 TD’s and looked highly efficient. Baltimore rolls to 3-0, and Lamar hits this prop on Sunday.
Harrison Butker OVER 3.0 XP (vs CHI)
I absolutely love this prop and for many reasons. The Chiefs are getting back into championship form with a healthy Kelce and Chris Jones, and that opening night loss to Detroit will soon be forgotten. On other hand, Chicago is a mess. Fields has not looked the same, they recently fired their DC, are 0-2 and now head to Kansas City to play in one of the toughest environments against one of the best teams. Chiefs are scoring 3 touchdowns with ease on Sunday, they may even put on a show. Let’s hope they go for the extra points, and we will sleep good with this prop.
Calvin Ridley OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards (vs HOU)
The Jaguars are looking to move to 2-1, and are in a prime position to do so against a very injured Houston Texans team. With a plethora of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, the Texans are also going to be without their stud CB Derek Stingley Jr. Ridley blew up in week one, when he recorded 8 grabs for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Colts, but got quiet in week two with only 2 grabs for 32 yards against Kansas City. But, in the game against KC, Ridley still was able to secure 8 targets which is a great sign that Trevor Lawrence is looking his way. Ridley gets back on track in week three against a prime matchup against an in-division rival.
Jimmy Garoppolo OVER .5 Interceptions (vs PIT)
The Las Vegas Raiders host the 1-1 Pittsburgh Steelers in their home opener on Sunday night football in week three of the 2023 season. Both teams are looking to get their second win of the season, and I could see this game really going either way. But, what we do know is that the Steelers still have a very good defense. The team currently has 9 sacks (TJ Watt has 4!!!) as a team and 1 interception in 2023. On the other hand, Jimmy G has looked OK as the Raiders new starter, it has been up and down with efficiency. The one thing that has stuck out early in his Vegas career is interceptions. Through two full games, Jimmy G currently has 4 interceptions on the year. While he is working his way back to his level of play, I think Jimmy throws one in what should be a close SNF matchup.
Here’s to another great weekend of NFL football.