Thursday Night Football is back at Lambeau Field as the Green Bay Packers (4-6) host the Tennessee Titans (6-3) in what is tipped to be a very competitive matchup in Wisconsin. The Packers open up as slight favorites (-3), with the over/under sitting at a conservative 41 points. After a hard-fought victory over the Dallas Cowboys, the Packers look to continue winning against a Titans team that has only lost once in their last 7 games.
Robert Tonyan Over 27.5 receiving yards (-105)
The stats are leaning toward a pass-heavy game for the Packers and a run-heavy game for the Titans, so let’s start off with the passing side for Green Bay. After an injury-hit 2021, he’s returned this season but hasn’t been able to hit the heights of his breakout year in 2020. That being said, he consistently sees targets. He’s currently 3rd in target share (14.3%) behind Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs, with the latter being out injured, so he should still see steady work on this offense. His over line is a very moderate 27.5 yards, which he’s surpassed 6 out of 10 times so far this season, and 8 different tight ends have topped that number against Tennessee this season. After a quiet outing against the Dallas Cowboys, look for him to bounce back in a must-win game for the Packers against a Titans team that’s ranked 31st in passing yards allowed per game (272.6).
Derrick Henry Over 97.5 rushing yards (-130)
The Packers have the 3rd best defense about passing yards allowed per game (179.7); unfortunately for them, they rank 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (140). Enter Derrick Henry. Before last weekend, he’d topped 100+ yards in 5 consecutive games. Unfortunately for him, he was up against a relatively strong Denver Broncos rush defense. He will be pushing to bounce back against a Packers defense that has seen very little success against the rush. In the last 5 weeks alone they’ve allowed Tony Pollard (115), Jamaal Williams (81), Devin Singletary (67), Brian Robinson Jr (73) & Breece Hall (116) to lead their teams with strong rushing performances. Derrick Henry is a level above all of these backs, maybe excusing Breece Hall. The other difference with Henry is he is the alpha on this team and leads the NFL in rushing attempts this season (202), and those listed have often had others splitting carries in some sense: D’Andre Swift, Josh Allen, Antonio Gibson & Michael Carter. Look for Henry to have 25+ carries here in what will be a closely fought matchup.
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
We’re leaning heavily on the statistics with this one. The Titans on the road are averaging 2 passing touchdowns conceded per game. Rodgers has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in all but 3 of their games so far this season, including their now annual week 1 car crash performance against the Vikings, once against a Jets side only allowing 1.0 passing touchdowns per game, and a matchup against the Lions where he threw multiple interceptions in the endzone, subsequently doubling his season interception tally in 1 matchup. With the Titans’ extensive injury list including the likes of Caleb Farley & Amani Hooker, expect Rodgers to take advantage and dominate the passing game and push the ball into the endzone.
Bonus Pick: Allen Lazard anytime touchdown (+200)
Allen Lazard currently leads the Packers in target share (20.8%) and has had 5 touchdowns so far this season on 10 redzone targets. He’s clearly a favorite target of Rodgers, ahead of Doubs (3 touchdowns) who’s now missing, so if you want to sprinkle some money on a scorer, look for Lazard to find himself in the endzone against a Titans defense allowing 2 passing touchdowns per game.
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.
