Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Pick and Preview

Christian Watson

Packers at Bears Preview

NFC North Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Bears +3.5 | Total Points: 44.0

As the Packers prepare for their NFC North matchup against Chicago, they have an overall record of 4-8 and are in the midst of 2 game losing streak. This week, the Green Bay Packers are hoping to get back in the win column after falling 40-33 to the Philadelphia Eagles. The loss was costly, as it came against an NFC opponent. With the loss, Green Bay also failed to cover the spread, as they were 6.5 underdogs. Going into the game, the over-under total was set at 46 points, which the teams surpassed.

The Bears come into this game with an overall record of 3-9 and have lost 5 straight games. Heading into week 13, the Bears are coming off a 31-10 loss to the New York Jets. In terms of betting, Chicago not only lost the game but failed to cover the spread as 8.5-point underdogs. By the end of the game, the teams combined for 41 points, surpassing the betting line of 36.

Packers vs Bears History

The last time these two teams played came back in week 2, where the Packers picked up a 27-10 win over the Bears. Central to the team’s win was their victory in the turnover department. In their 17-point win, the Packers also covered the spread. The team entered the game as 10.5-point favorites. The two team’s offense’s combined to score 37 points. This figure was below the over-under betting line of 42.0.

In the last 3 games between Chicago and Green Bay, the Packers have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 14 points per contest. Across the last 3 head-to-head matchups, Green Bay is averaging 32 points compared to Chicago at 18. The Packers will be looking to continue their recent success as the road team vs the Bears, as they have a record of 3-0 in their past 3 meetings. If looking to place a wager on the spread, it is worth noting that Green Bay has an ATS mark of 5-0 across the last 5 games. These games have finished with an average point total of 53, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Notable Injuries

Green Bay Packers

  • Caleb Jones (Illness) Questionable
  • Romeo Doubs (Ankle) Questionable
  • Darnell Savage (Foot) Questionable
  • AJ Dillon (Quad) Questionable
  • Aaron Jones (Shin/glute) Questionable
  • Elgton Jenkins (Knee) Questionable
  • De’Vondre Campbell (Knee) Questionable
  • Aaron Rodgers (Thumb/rib) Questionable
  • David Bakhtiari (Knee) Questionable

Chicago Bears

  • Kyler Gordon (Concussion) Questionable
  • Jaquan Brisker (Concussion) Questionable
  • Kindle Vildor (Ankle) Questionable
  • Larry Borom (Ankle/knee) Questionable
  • Justin Fields (Shoulder) Probable
  • Chase Claypool (Knee) Probable
  • Dante Pettis (Illness) Questionable
  • Trevor Siemian (Oblique) Questionable
  • Riley Reiff (Shoulder) Questionable

Keys To Victory: Green Bay Packers

This season, the Packers have had their problems on offense, as through 12 games, they are averaging just 19.58 points per game. The team’s lackluster offense has contributed 45.0% of the scoring in their games, leading to an average point differential of -4.0. Heading into this week’s action, the Packers are averaging 223.4 yards per game through the pass, placing them 15th in the league. There is a chance that the team struggles to move the ball through the air against a Bears defense that has defended the pass well this year, sitting 12th in passing yards allowed. Leading the way for Green Bay is quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who comes into the game with a total of 2682 passing yards. So far, Rodgers has a passer rating of 92.9. Green Bay’s top receiving threat has been Allen Lazard, who comes into the game with 553 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 31.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.

Through 12 games, the Packers ground game is producing at a level near the league average at 121.25 yards per game. However, they could be in line for an above-average performance vs a Chicago defense that struggles to defend the run. An area of concern for the Packers will be if their top running back Aaron Jones is able to play as he is listed as questionable on the injury report. This year, Jones has rushed 821 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

Keys To Victory: Chicago Bears

As the Bears prepare to take on the Packers, they will be searching for more out of the passing attack. Justin Fields has the team ranked 32nd in passing yards per game and is ranked 27th among quarterbacks in yards through the air. On average, the Bears have thrown the ball 21 times per contest. Heading into the game, the team’s top receiver Darnell Mooney is matched up against the league’s 14th-ranked secondary. For the year, he has been targeted 61 times for 493 yards.

A strength of this year’s Chicago offense is their ability to move the ball on the ground. On the season, the team is ranked 1st in rush yards per game. Look for the team to lean heavily on David Montgomery, who comes into the game with a total of 580 yards. This season, they have outrushed their opponent in 58.33% of their games. Based on the competition, Chicago is producing at an above-average rate based on the type of defenses they have faced.

Betting Trends

  • Green Bay is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Green Bay is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Green Bay is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
  • Green Bay is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.


Despite the injuries and performance of Jordan Love coming off the bench and playing well, we expect the Packers to put things together with Aaron Rodgers back under center. Justin Fields getting the start could change the spread, so make sure you stay up to date with NFL odds for this week’s game. We like the Packers to cover in a low-scoring game. See all our NFL Picks here.

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