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Sunday Night Football Titans at Chiefs Picks & Props

Patrick Mahomes

Titans vs Chiefs Prop Bets

After an ugly 0-2 start to the season, the Tennessee Titans have won the last 5 straight games and are now tied for second in the AFC with a 5-2 record. Rookie QB Malik Willis made his first career start in last Sunday’s 17-10 win over the Houston Texans after Ryan Tannehill was ruled out with an illness and an ankle injury.  We still aren’t positive who will be under center for the Titans Sunday night.  It looks like Tannehill did practice in a limited fashion on Friday, but there is no decision on who will be the starter.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are also tied for second in the AFC with a 5-2 record. The Chiefs were on a bye last week after pulling off a dominant 44-23 win against the San Francisco 49ers in week 7.  Kansas City is the only team to have scored over 40 points in three games this season.

Kansas City is favored by 12 points and the over/under is sitting around 45.5 now.  One trend that has been very profitable for bettors in the past, backing Andy Reid off a bye.  Andy Reid has a stellar 19-3 record when his team is coming off a bye week.  That is something to keep in mind when betting on this game.  Let’s dive into some of our favorite props for this game.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 55.5 receving yards (-120)

The Titans have been one of the worst teams against the pass this season.  Teams have been incredibly successful when throwing the ball against this defense.  Now enter Patrick Mahomes as the quarterback that will be attacking this defense.  That sounds like a receipt for success, right? In the last two games, Smith-Schuster has caught 12 of 13 targets, with three of those receptions going for 40 or more yards.

Derrick Henry Over 86.5 rushing yards (-117)

Look this one doesn’t need much explaining.  King Henry is the key to the Titans having any success on Sunday night.  For the Titans to be able to keep this game close, Henry is going to have to rush for over 100 yards.  I believe he will be able to do that.  He has been such a vital part of this Titans organization, look for Henry to get the ball 25 to 30 times on Sunday.

Mecole Hardman Anytime Touchdown (+270)

This is a bit of a long-shot play but the value is too good for me to pass up here.  Hardman has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games for the Chiefs.  Hardman is one of Andy Reid’s favorite weapons. He loves drawing up plays for him and using him in different types of schemes to throw off the defense.  With Tyreek Hill on the dolphins, Hardman has filled in as that versatile all-around playmaker that can make things happen for the Chiefs.  At +270, I can’t pass up on that! Give me Hardman to find the endzone Sunday night.

Game Preview

Point Spread: Titans +12.0 | Total Points: 46.5

As the Titans prepare for this AFC matchup, the team has an overall record of 5-2. This includes riding a current 5-game win streak. Against AFC opponents, they have a record of 4-1. Last week, the Titans picked up a game in the AFC South as they took down the Texans by a score of 17-10. Not only did Tennessee walk away with the win, but they also covered the spread as 1.0-point favorites. Together, the two teams combined score remained below the over-under betting line of 39.

Leading into their week 9 AFC West matchup against Tennessee, the Chiefs have an overall record of 5-2. This week, the Chiefs will look to keep things rolling after picking up a non-conference win over the San Francisco 49ers (44-23). With their combined 49 points, the two teams exceeded the betting over-under number of 49. Kansas City covered the spread in the game as 1 point favorites.

Titans vs Chiefs History

Going into the last head-to-head matchup between the teams, the Titans were 4.0-point underdogs at home. However, they not only covered the spread but finished with a straight-up win by a score of 27-3. In the last 3 head-to-head matchups, the Titans are averaging 28 points per game, compared to the Chiefs at 23. These figures have led to Tennessee posting a record of 2-1.

Kansas City will look to do a better job at home in this series, as across their 3 most recent home games vs Tennessee, they are just 1-2. In terms of betting, Tennessee holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 23.0, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Notable Injuries

Tennessee Titans

  • Derrick Henry (Foot) Questionable
  • Ryan Tannehill (Ankle/illness) Questionable
  • Kevin Strong (Ankle) Questionable
  • Jeffery Simmons (Ankle) Questionable
  • Amani Hooker (Shoulder) Questionable
  • Sam Okuayinonu (Knee) Questionable
  • Tory Carter (Neck) Questionable
  • Rashad Weaver (Back) Questionable
  • Aaron Brewer (Toe) Questionable
  • Elijah Molden (Groin) Questionable
  • Naquan Jones (Illness) Questionable

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Lucas Niang (Kneecap) Questionable
  • Willie Gay (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Mike Danna (Calf) Probable
  • Jody Fortson (Quad) Questionable
  • Trent McDuffie (Hamstring) Probable
  • Derrick Nnadi (Achilles) Probable
  • Mecole Hardman (Heel) Probable
  • Jerick McKinnon (Shoulder) Probable

Keys To Victory: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee comes into the game as the NFL’s 24th-ranked scoring offense at 18.9 points per game. However, things have been tough in the passing game, as are 31st in yards per contest. Not only is the team struggling to pick up yards through the air, they have also struggled to use the pass to move the chains. For the year, Tennessee is just 30th in the NFL in 3rd downs converted in the passing game. Points have been hard to come by for the team, depsite their success in the rushing game. So far, the Tennessee offense is not only near the top of the league in yards at 138.0 per game but they also an above-average team in terms of attempts. Derrick Henry leads the team in rushing with 755 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the NFL’s top-scoring offense head to Tennessee looking to take care of business, as they are the 12.0 point favorites on the spread. For the season, Mahomes is averaging 308.43 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 2nd among quarterbacks. Mahomes is coming off a 423-passing-yard performance, leading to a passer rating of 132.35. Against the Titans, the team will look to get receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 6.86 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 494.

Running back Isiah Pacheco heads a Kansas City rushing attack, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Overall, he is the league’s 54th-ranked running back in yards per game. As a team, the Chiefs have struggled to move the ball on the ground, which figures to continue against a tough Kansas City rush defense.

Betting Trends

  • Tennessee is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Tennessee is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
  • Tennessee is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Prediction

Picks Calculator likes the Chiefs to win, but thinks the Titans keep it close. We expect the Titans to cover. See all our Week 9 NFL Picks Here

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