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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals 

It’s that time of the week, and we’re back after an excellent weekend for Vegas with plenty of upsets across the NFL. Week 7 starts with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the New Orleans Saints in what will hopefully be a more exciting matchup than the last couple of Thursdays. Injuries on both sides could make this a close game, with the line starting at -2 in favor of Arizona, and both sides sitting at 2-4. Though the return of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will soften the blow for the Cardinals after losing Marquise Brown to a possible season-ending injury.

Check out my picks from last week here

Marquez Callaway Over 29.5 receiving yards (-114)

Chris Olave has been cleared to play after a concussion forced him to miss week 6, and with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry still missing, it’s a huge boost for a Saints receiver core that has been down to the bare bones. Olave is averaging 8 targets per game and already has 389 yards from just 25 receptions. The obvious move is to take his over at 63.5 yards, except for the fact Byron Murphy is having a stellar start to the season for Arizona. So far this season he has kept the likes of AJ Brown (32), Cooper Kupp (44) and DK Metcalf (34) below 50 yards total, which is phenomenal considering that this was the only occasion Kupp had under 80 yards. With him being their best receiver available, he’ll be matched with Murphy and may be a concern with a number as high as 63.5. On the other hand, WR2/3’s like Hunter Renfrow, Ben Skowronek & Devonta Smith have had 55+ yard games against the Cardinals, which leads me towards pivoting towards somebody like Marquez Callaway. In 2 of the last 3 games, he’s seen 3 receptions for at least 36 yards. Arizona also rank 20th in passing yards allowed (233.5) in the league, so I’m in on Callaway over 29.5 yards receiving.

DeAndre Hopkins Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114)

On the other side, it’s been a week of highs and lows for the Cardinals receiving team. Marquise Brown was ranked 4th in the NFL for targets (64) resulting in 43 receptions for 485 yards. That has now been vacated, which makes the return of DeAndre Hopkins even more important. He has been missing for the first 6 games due to suspension rather than injury, so he’ll be raring to go from the offset. If it wasn’t enough that he’s one of the best receivers in the league, there are a couple of other key factors to look his way during this one. Firstly, Kyler Murray’s passing numbers with regard to volume, are up from last season. In the first 6 games this season, he’s already had 252 pass attempts, up from last year’s total of 195 at this same time last year. His numbers are looking more like 2020 than 2021, which is positive for Hopkins as in 2021 he only averaged 4 receptions and 57 yards per game, but in 2020 it was 7 receptions for 87 yards per game. As well as this, the Saints will be without their star cornerback Marshon Lattimore who would’ve likely covered Hopkins on his return. The stars are aligning for a dream return for Hopkins.

Taysom Hill Over 29.5 rushing yards (-114)

With the quarterback situation up in the air for the Saints, Taysom Hill’s rushing yards may be a nice play. Both Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton logged limited practice on Tuesday, we’re still unsure who will start tomorrow night. Either way, they’re not going to be 100% healthy, especially with the short turnaround, which could lead to more designed plays and Hill being utilized in some wildcat formations. His over number is 29.5 rushing yards, which he has eclipsed in 3 of 5 games so far, including twice exceeding 80 yards. New Orleans ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (120.8), so look for Hill and also Kamara to exploit the Saints’ mediocre rush defense.

Ronaldo Moore Over 40 receiving yards (-174)

Do we double down on Kyler Murray’s passing prowess against this average Saints pass defense missing their best cornerback? Ok, let’s do it. Rondale Moore has emerged for the Cardinals on his return from injury. After a quiet start in his first game back, in his last two games, he’s seen over 90% of snaps and had 13 receptions from 18 targets, averaging at least 8 yards per catch. I would definitely take an alternative on his total, just to ease my concerns of doubling down on the Cardinals receivers, but 40 yards seems very much in the realm of possibility for a man seeing a 21.9% target share.

 

Bonus Picks

Ertz anytime TD (+230)

Zach Ertz is tied first for end zone targets (Andrews & Kelce) with 11 targets, and 6 in the redzone. He’s see 51 targets in his first 6 games, second in target share (21%) and had 35 receptions. With 2 TD’s so far this season, I could see him adding to his total tonight.

Chris Olave under 63.5 receiving yards (-114)

If you’re feeling brave, following up from the Callaway discussion, Chris Olave’s yard total is 63.5. Only Juju Smith-Schuster has topped this yard total (77) coming up against Byron Murphy, and that was an absolute blowout at the hands of Patrick Mahomes. I would lean towards taking the under on Olave. If you really want to.