Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Khalil Herbert

Thursday Night Football is back as the Washington Commanders (2-2) host the Chicago Bears (0-4), in a match that may be more exciting than people are expecting. The line sits at 44.5, and with both teams struggling to keep their opposition from finding the endzone, it may end up being a high-scoring affair, or knowing our luck a super low-scoring one. I for one though think it will be the former, and I expect Washington to continue their strong form that saw them nearly leave Philadelphia with a win on Sunday. As always, we’re with the Underdog Fantasy and you can find all of these picks there.

Joey Slye has 7+ kicking points

We’re starting off with the exciting stuff, as Commanders kicker Joey Slye should be in for a busy evening. Other than their drubbing at the hands of the Bills, the Commanders have put up at least 20 points in each of their games so far, and they face a weak Chicago Bears defense that will allow them plenty of redzone opportunities. The Bears have conceded at least 3 touchdowns in every game so far, including 5 on 2 separate occasions (Packers & Chiefs). So far, no kicker has scored less than 7 points against them, and with the Bears averaging 2.0 turnovers a game (30th) they may struggle against a Commanders team that just scored 4 touchdowns against the Eagles and almost won in Philly. Finally, the Commanders are averaging 3.3 sacks per game (7th) and Justin Fields has already been sacked 17 times in 4 games, so expect them to see plenty of opportunity to push the Bears back and improve on their 3.8 red-zone scoring attempts per game.

Brian Robinson Over 62.5 rushing yards

The Commanders go into Thursday Night Football as -6.5 favorites and as the home team, so they’re expected to win big, although they’re yet to win by a full score this season and tend to let their opposition stay in the game. Other than losing heavy to Buffalo, their other 3 games have been settled by 4 points or less. A bright spot for them has been their 2nd year running back Brian Robinson Jr, who had a solid rookie season after coming back from injury, and Washington look like they’re sticking with him. So far this season he’s averaging 4.28 yards per carry and has had at least 14 carries in all but (you guessed it) that game against Buffalo, even then he still rushed for 70 yards on just 10 carries. Chicago currently ranks 18th in rush yards allowed per game (115.5), and in a game that should stay close as the Commanders have conceded 30+ points in 3 of 4 games, Robinson Jr should see a similar volume to their opening 2 games and see 18+ carries. He ranks 4th overall in yards created per game (72.66) which is the yards gained after evading the first tackle, and has 9 evaded tackles on the year so far, so he’s showing great promise in this Commanders offense.

Khalil Herbert Over 11.5 receiving yards

It’s tough to find consistency in this Bears offense, but this line is likely where we find it. In their opening 4 games, Bears running back Khalil Herbert has seen moderate amounts of receiving work, with 3+ targets in 3 of their 4 games, and 2+ receptions in 3 of the 4 as well. He’s actually had 19+ yards in 3 of those games. The Commanders rank 20th in passing yards allowed per game (230) and have allowed 6 running backs 2+ receptions and 4 of those have seen 14+ yards, which should really be 5 as James Connor had 5 receptions for 8 yards somehow. There is a weakness there and as Justin Fields attempts to stave off the Commanders defense and avoid the rampant number of sacks he’s receiving, he may continue to dump the ball off to his running backs. This was most notable in their last game as they narrowly lost to Denver, but Herbert had 4 receptions on 5 targets. The other games got away from them earlier on, but I anticipate this one staying closer for longer. With 15 targets on the season, he ranks 3rd on their offense and with Chase Claypool now expected to leave the Bears, Herbert should continue to see regular passing work from Fields.

Terry Mclaurin Over 4.5 receptions

We finish with Washingtons top receiver now for the last 5 years, as Terry Mclaurin looks to improve on what was a slow start to the season. After a quiet opener against Arizona, in Howell’s first season opener as their starter, Mclaurin has since had 6+ targets and 5+ receptions in each of the last 3 games. With Curtis Samuel questionable, I expect Mclaurin and Dotson to see the majority of the passing work as they’re the only 2 receivers to see 83%+ snap share. So far Terry has 21 receptions on 26 targets so his efficiency is high and as the Bears are allowing 22.3 completions per game (15th), he should stay busy as Howell’s top target. Although I don’t see him matching last weeks 8 receptions against the Eagles, he should comfortably see 5 receptions once again, especially as the game stays close.




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