The NFL has given us an early Christmas Present as the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) travel to New York to face the Jets (7-7) who are holding onto an outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs this year. The over-under is set at a meager 38 points, but we can only hope for a Christmas miracle to bring us a high-scoring affair this Thursday, as Trevor Lawrence looks to give the Jags their 4th win in 5 over a Jets side on a 3-game losing streak. With the line set as a dead heat pick ‘em, our player props should be a safer shot than trying to pick a winner here.
Garrett Wilson over 56.5 yards receiving (-110)
In his rookie year, Garrett Wilson is closing in on being the first rookie of the season to break 1000 yards on the year (966) and can absolutely get it done tonight. The Jaguars rank 29th this season on passing yards allowed per game (256.6) and even with Zach Wilson back in for the Jets, Garrett has 78+ yards in 6 of his last 7 games and leads the team with a 22.9% target share. You know for a fact he’s eyeing up to be the first rookie over 1000 yards and with a matchup like this, he is more than capable of doing so. His longest reception prop is also worth noting, over 22.5 yards (-110), he’s hit this over in 5 of his last 7, and the Jaguars rank 27th in yards allowed per reception (11), and in 4 of those last 7, he’s averaged over 19+ yards per catch.
Travis Etienne over 15.5 rushing attempts (-115)
After an overtime win against the Cowboys and a 103-yard rushing performance, Travis Etienne is on a short week against a Jets defense that ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed per game (111.5) and topped his over number for the first time since week 9 in that last game. I was tempted by his yard under in this game until I noticed the weather report is showing heavy rain in New Jersey on Thursday night. With Trevor Lawrence continuing to struggle with a sprained toe, and the inclement weather factoring in, I could see Etienne seeing his fair share of carries. He has seen over 15.5 carries in 4 of his last 7, one of those he didn’t, he left against Baltimore with a foot injury after just 2 carries. The other 2 were heavy defeats against the Chiefs and Lions where the game script limited the run game.
Trevor Lawrence longest reception under 32.5 yards (-125)
Continuing with the weather affecting the game, look for Lawrence to limit his downfield throws with the expected 15-20mph winds and heavy rain likely to make those big throws harder to rein in. In his 14 games so far Lawrence has topped this number on 8 occasions, so even without the conditions, it’s near 50/50. In addition to this, the Jets rank 6th in yards allowed per catch (9.4), partly due to the emergence of Sauce Gardner as one of the top corners in the NFL, as he’s only allowing opposing QB’s on average a 70.7 passer rating, the 6th best in the league.
Quincy Williams over 5.5 tackles & assisted (-105)
In 12 games so far this season, Williams has 54 solo tackles and is averaging 4.5 solo tackles per game. Though the average is below the total, he’s averaged 6 tackles/assisted tackles per game and has done this in 7 of 12 games. Of the 5 he hasn’t, he had 3 of those games with 5 tackles so he’s come very close in those. What’s key here are the games that he’s hit the over (Ravens, Green Bay, New England x2, Buffalo etc), they’re run-heavy teams, and with the Jags ideally looking to run the ball more in this game due to the weather, look for Williams to stay busy in this one.
Christmas Bonus: Trevor Lawrence anytime TD (+500)
For a little bit of fun, I could see Lawrence using his legs more in these conditions, and if Etienne fails to break into the endzone Lawrence may decide to be the second option. So far this season he has 4 rushing touchdowns and is averaging 3-4 attempts per game, so if you want to add some fun to the game look for Lawrence to snag his 5th touchdown on the year.
Have a wonderful Christmas everyone!
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.