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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Broncos at Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Well, last week was bleak. As we did once last season, we finished a rough night 0-4 as the Chicago Bears upset the Commanders. There was some indecision and changing of mind that went into those picks, so we’re back for redemption this week and not second-guessing anything. The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) host the Denver Broncos (1-4) in this AFC West matchup, with the hosts starting as heavy -9.5 favorites.

Isiah Pacheco Over 73.5 rushing yards

After a strong end to his rookie season, Isiah Pacheco has solidified his spot as the Chiefs RB1 ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. He’s had a decent start to the season, but has only topped this total in 1 of 5 games, though what’s interesting is those 4 teams he played rank 13th or better in rushing yards allowed per game (Detroit 3rd, Jacksonville 5th, Chicago 12th & Minnesota 13th). His 1 game over, against the Jets (27th), he finished with 115 yards and the Broncos are dead last (32nd) in rushing yards allowed per game (187.6). On the year he’s averaged 4.58 yards per carry, which isn’t bad considering the strength of opposition faced, but he ranks 5th in yards created (yards after first evaded tackle) and is tied 6th for breakaways (carries of 15+ yards). The Broncos have allowed 5 running backs to top 80+ yards so far, including 3 for over 100+. The stars are aligning here for Pacheco, he has the potential for a huge night.

Russell Wilson Over 20.5 pass completions

Broncos country, let’s ride. In a surprising turn of events, Russell Wilson is currently the QB8 on the year. After a poor first year in Denver, he’s steadily improving, though unfortunately his team isn’t helping him too much. Wison has had 20+ completions in 4 of the first 5 games this year, and topped this over in 3 of those, averaging 21.5 completions on the season. The Chiefs are currently allowing 22.6 completions per game (15th) and last season he had 23 and 26 completions in games against them. After averaging 2.1 interceptable passes per game in 2022, he has just 3 total this season, so he’s cleaned up his passing somewhat, and his pass completion % has risen from 60.5 to 66.9. What also helps his completions is the short passes to his running backs, he’s had 7+ completions in 3 of 5 so far, and with Javonte Williams back that should only help him on that front.

Harrison Butker 3+ XP made

We do love a good kicker prop, and today is no different. Harrison Butker is still at 100% completion this season and has made 2+ extra points in every game so far, and 3+ in 3 of 5. The Broncos have allowed 31+ points in their last 4 straight and have conceded at least 2 touchdowns in every game, as well as 3+ in 3 of 5. They’re averaging 4.4 touchdowns against per game (32nd), though this is heavily skewed by Miami’s 10 touchdowns in week 3, without that game, they’re still averaging 2.75 and they’ve not faced many strong offenses. Other than the Dolphins, only the Bears are in the top 10 for touchdowns averaged per game (2.6), the rest are in the bottom 50%, and the Broncos now face a Chiefs offense that is 7th in touchdowns per game (2.8). With the Chiefs points total line at 29.5, I anticipate them putting up plenty of scores against a struggling Broncos defense.

Marvin Mims Over 17.5 yards receiving

This last one was tricky, but I’m rolling with my gut here. There’s been reports this week that Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, amongst others could be traded before the deadline as the Broncos could blow their team up, as they’re sitting at 1-4. Will that affect them in this game? I’m not too sure, but rookie Marvin Mims has shown glimpses so far of being a real field stretcher for Russell Wilson. Last week he saw minimal usage after he lost a fumble, but in the 3 games before his longest reception in each was 38, 48 and 60 yards! Granted he doesn’t see an abundance of targets, but he’s had 10 catches on 12 targets and is averaging 20.5 yards per target. So all it takes for this to hit realistically is 1 catch, and with the Broncos likely to be chasing the game, don’t think Russ won’t take a couple shots down field when they need a score late on, and unlike his fellow receivers, Mims is yet to record a drop this season.

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