Prop Bets

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Bills vs. Patriots

Stefon Diggs

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

After an action-packed Thanksgiving slate, we’re back to regular viewing for Thursday Night Football as the Buffalo Bills (8-3) travel to New England to face the Patriots (6-5) in what looks to be a closely contested affair after both teams had differing results last Thursday. The Bills open up as -4.5 favorites after narrowly escaping Detroit with the win after a final second field goal to win the matchup. In contrast, the Patriots look to bounce back after losing their back-and-forth game with the Minnesota Vikings.

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Josh Allen Over 42.5 rushing yards (-115)

Does this seem familiar? It should, we’re going back to what brought us success last week. Allen’s rush total was just a yard short of this figure last week and he finished the evening with 10 carries for 78 yards, though the Patriots do have a much better rush defense than the Lions, as they rank 9th in rushing yards allowed per game (109.3). What brings me back to Allen is the fact that Lamar Jackson (107) and Justin Fields (82) have both topped this figure, and the Pats have also allowed Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger to average around 8 yards per carry in a game this season. One of the few weaknesses with the Patriots’ defense seems to be rushing quarterbacks, so look for Allen to exceed 42 yards for the 9th time this season.

Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 receptions (-120)

Yes, we’re doing this one again too. We went 2/2 for the Bills game last week and I believe these two are well worth repeating this week. Stefon Diggs over the last 3 games is 2nd in the league for targets (36) and has 24 receptions over that period, and is facing a Patriots pass defense that allowed both Justin Jefferson & Adam Thielen to have 9 receptions on 11 and 10 targets respectively. On the season, Diggs has a 30.8% target share (2nd in NFL) and is averaging 10.8 targets and 7.6 receptions per game. Although the Patriots rank 9th in passing yards allowed per game (198.5), the Bills are 3rd in the league for passing yards for (279.2). So look for Josh Allen to continue throwing the football, often and effectively, and continuing to feed his number 1 target.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 35.5 yards receiving (-115)

Rhamondre StevensonOver the last 3 games, Rhamondre Stevenson leads the Patriots with a 25.8% target share and is only 0.9% behind Jakobi Meyers for the whole season, with 18 receptions on 23 targets in those last 3. Since starting my weekly research his over total shot up from 31.5 to 35.5, which I’m still comfortable taking as he’s reached that figure in 4 of his last 5 matchups. As well as this, the Bills rank 19th in passing yards allowed per game (221.6) and have allowed 10 running backs this season to have 3+ receptions.

The reason I’m taking the yard’s total over the number of receptions (over 5.5) is that the Bills haven’t allowed a single running back to have more than 5 receptions this season, but with Stevenson having the 19th highest target share (25.8%) in the entire NFL over the last 3 games, look for Mac Jones to continue to utilize him aggressively in the passing game.

Nick Folk Over 1.5 Field Goals made (-105)

We’re finishing off with a glamorous one. I went back and forth between which kicker to take for this line as they both sit at over 1.5, and you could make an argument for either, but Folk gets the nod for this game. First of all, in 3 of their last 4 games, Folk has made 4+ field goals successfully, with the outlier being a rare double miss against the Jets where he went 1/3 for the day. Secondly, at home, the Patriots are averaging 2.8 field goal attempts per game (2nd in NFL), and the Bills are averaging 1.7 field goal attempts against on the road this season (11th). With this game expected to be close, look for both teams to want to stay in the game with field goals, especially the Patriots as they’re tied last for 4th down conversions per game (0.2).

Bonus Bet: Matt Judon over 0.75 sacks (+105)

Not usually one for defensive props, but Matt Judon leads the league in sacks this season (13) with 10 of those coming at home! Alongside this, Josh Allen is averaging being sacked 2.6 times per game on the road. Look for the Patriots to get after Allen as he also has the 3rd most fumbles this season (9).

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