Golf Betting Tips and Picks
This will be the final PGA Tournament of the year, and The RSM Classic has been played since 2010. We have a full 156-player field competing this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 will play round 3 and round 4.
There’s $8.1M to be won this week, the winner gets $1.458M and also receives 500 FedEx Cup points. Two courses are used for this tournament including Sea Island Resort (Seaside) (three out of the four rounds are played on this course) which is 7,005 yards in length, and is a par 70, and Sea Island Resort (Plantation) is 7,060 yards, and is a par 72, and both courses feature Bermudagrass greens. The average winning score at this tournament over the last decade is -18.3, and over the last five years it has ranged from -19 to -22. Place bets on golfers who are accurate from the tee blocks, are solid around greens, are good on Bermuda greens, have a strong approach game, and gain well from tee to green.
Three questions that are relevant to The RSM Classic this week:
- Accurate driving from the tee blocks is really important on these tracks, especially on the Seaside course. Which 10 players have been the most accurate over their last 24 rounds? Keith Mitchell, Aaron Rai, Ryan Moore, Ryan Armour, Justin Suh, Andrew Putnam, Spencer Ralston, Joel Dahmen, David Lipsky, and Brendon Todd.
- Which players have the most top 10’s at Mayakoba over the last five years? Webb Simpson, Zach Johnson, and Kevin Kisner all have 3.
- What’s my top bet for the week? If I could only bet on one player this week and choose just one outcome, all with the goal of maximizing return but taking on a calculated risk, I would bet Mackenzie Hughes to finish top 20 at +250.
Below you will find players that I will bet, might bet, and five random bets that interest me. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable or break even in roughly 70% of the weeks I’m active.
5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting
Seamus Power (+2200) – With a win and a T3 over his last two starts and a T4 here last year, the stars seem to be aligned for Power to have a solid week. This time last year he was guns a blazin’ too, so keep riding him early next year too if he does well this week. I’m likely going to bet him to win, to finish top 5, top 10, and top 20.
Mackenzie Hughes (+3000) – Before Tony Finau withdrew, I had already bet Hughes to win at +5000, so his odds really shortened after Finau pulled out, by +2000. All of the golfers near the top of the board got shorter, in fact. Hughes won here in 2016 and was runner-up last year, plus he won three starts ago and has four straight top 25’s. I’ve already got the outright on Hughes, and I’ve bet him to finish top 10, top 20, and top 40, as well.
Joel Dahmen (+3500) – Dahmen’s ball-striking and around the green play are both strong right now, and he has four top 16’s in his last five starts. His best result here in six starts is a T29 which came last year, and his form is much better now vs late in 2021, so I like his odds of finishing inside the top 20 and possibly even top 10 this week – bet him accordingly.
Zach Johnson (+15000) – He has been spectacular here over the last five years with three top 8’s and four top 16’s, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s a Sea Island resident. I’m taking the top 20 and top 40 wagers for sure, and I’m considering a top 10 also, but will likely constrain myself.
Tom Hoge (+1800) – Before missing the cut in Mexico, Hoge had six top 13’s in eight starts thanks to killer ball-striking and putting. I suspect that he will rebound this week given his pedigree and he finished T4 here a year ago gaining strokes across the board. I’ve already bet him to finish top 10 and top 20, and I’m looking at the outright as well since Finau is no longer a factor and the win is now completely up for grabs.
5 Players That I Might Bet
Keith Mitchell (+2500) – Accuracy is very important this week given the tight fairways and water hazards, and I’m liking that Mitchell is the most accurate from the tee blocks over his last 24 rounds. He has been solid here over the last three years with two top 14’s, and has collectively gained over 9 strokes ball-striking from 2019 to 2021. He’s also coming off a T9 last week gaining strokes in all of the major stat categories including 7.13 ball-striking and 1.49 with his short game. I’ll likely be all over the top 20 and may move into top 10 territory as well.
Brian Harman (+1600) – Harman is knocking on the door for another PGA Tour win as he finished runner-up in Mexico in his most recent start, had a T3 six starts ago, a T6 eight starts ago, and a T8 ten starts ago. He also has four consecutive top 23’s and all of his stats are looking sound. He also had a T4 five years ago, a T10 nine years ago, and a T14 three years ago. I’m considering the outright on him this week, will likely bet the top 20, and might pull down a top 10 also.
Patrick Rodgers (+4000) – I like what Rodgers is cooking these days since over his last five starts he has all top 28’s including a T3 in Bermuda just three starts ago. His ball-striking has been outstanding as he has gained strokes in the stat category in 13 out of his last 15 measured starts, and the around the green play has been quite good since early August. He finished runner-up here in 2018 and secured a T10 in 2016, so he knows what success looks like on this track. I’ll likely bet him to finish top 20 this week but will probably leave the riskier bets alone.
Brian Gay (+40000) – This is risky business but Gay has four top 40’s here over his last six looks at this event and two of those were top 4’s. I love that he has gained strokes on approach here in 7 out of his last 8 starts here, and his short game has been pretty much the same story gaining in 7 out of his last 9 starts on these grounds. He had a T11 three starts ago in Bermuda and has three top 10’s in his last five starts on the Champions Tour. I’m probably in on his top 40 this week, will consider the top 20, and there’s a 1% chance that I bet his top 10 number too.
Denny McCarthy (+3000) – With two top 10’s here over the last three years, and a T6 two starts ago in Bermuda, I like McCarthy’s prospects for this week, especially if he regains his smooth putting stroke that has been so dominant on these courses. I’m probably game for top 10 and top 20 wagers on Denny this week, and might take the -140 top 40 bet also, but I like to at least double my winnings on each bet, so I might pass on that one.
5 Other Interesting Bets
Tournament Winning Margin – Playoff (+300) – Four of the past six years have gone to a playoff here, and in 2016, it was a five-man playoff with Mackenzie Hughes coming out on top. I don’t normally bet on winning margin, but this week intrigues me since playoff endings have been relatively frequent here since 2016. You can actually bet on all of the winning margin options on DK except for 1 stroke exactly, and be either break-even or make a small profit – that’s what I have done to be super conservative.
Tournament Matchup – Seamus Power over Taylor Montgomery (-110) – It seems as though Power is well-positioned to have a strong week this week (see above), and I feel as though Montgomery’s game can’t hold up given his strong reliance on his putter which lost him 0.54 strokes last week and caused him to finish T57. Taylor is good off the tee but has lost strokes on approach in three straight measured starts, and I’m not too bullish on him for this week – I was last week and he failed me, so I’m giving him a break this time around.
To Make the Cut Parlay – Tom Hoge, Matthew NeSmith, Joel Dahmen, and Patrick Rodgers all to make the cut (+200) – These four are all players who regularly cash paychecks, so I feel quite comfortable betting them all to make the cut, even in a 156-player field.
Nationality Props – Canadian – Mackenzie Hughes to win (+120) – I bet Hughes to be the top Canadian last week and Adam Hadwin just edged him out in round 4. There’s no Hadwin this week to contend with, so unless Taylor Pendrith, Adam Svensson, or Michael Gligic have a strong week, I see Mackenzie taking the honors this week. With Hughes’ strong recent play and the win and runner-up at this tournament, there’s so much to like about the Canuck this week.
Winner in the Final Pairing – No (+175) – I wouldn’t have bet this before Finau was in the field, but with him now out, I feel like there will be a few golfers in contention on Sunday and things could get tight. We may see the fifth playoff here in the last seven years – expect a photo finish given there’s no true clear-cut stud now.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience – including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings – specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.