Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
It’s the day for feasting, hopefully literally and figuratively. We have over 10 hours of football ahead of us, so it would be rude not to have a look at each of the 3 games in store and hopefully make it an extra special day.
Buffalo Bills (7-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-6)
The Bills are back in Detroit only 4 days after their game versus the Cleveland Browns was moved there after Buffalo was submerged in over 6 feet of snow. Buffalo avoided a third straight loss after beating the Browns at the weekend, while the Lions are now on a 3-game-win streak after a convincing win over the Giants in New York. The Bills are -9.5 favorites in this one, though I’m not brave enough to lay that line, I do see a productive afternoon for the Josh Allen led offense.
Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (-150)
The Detroit Lions currently rank 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (262.2) and 19th in completions allowed per game (22.2), which bodes well for the Bills when you also add that they rank 3rd in passing yards per game (283.4). The reason we’re going with Diggs’ receptions rather than his yards (over 90.5 – which he should surpass), is a combination of the Lions averaging 12 yards per reception against them, which would mean Diggs needs over 8 receptions, and in the last 3 games in week 12 Stefon Diggs has had 7 or more receptions but less than 80 yards every time. Call me superstitious but in a game where he should see plenty of action, and likely a touchdown (-165), he should be more likely to see a high volume of targets (leads Bills with 31.3% target share).
Josh Allen over 41.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Lions rank 31st in rushing yards against (153.7), which initially intrigued me until I saw that the figure was skewed by Justin Fields’ 147-yard rushing performance in week 10. However, this highlighted the fact that the Lions have a real problem against mobile quarterbacks. Alongside Fields – Daniel Jones (50), Geno Smith (49), Jalen Hurts (90) and even Aaron Rodgers (40) topped 40 yards rushing against Detroit. If Aaron Rodgers can average 10 yards per carry then I struggle to see an outcome where Josh Allen can’t pass 41.5, a number he’s topped on 7 out of 10 occasions so far this season.
New York Giants (7-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
After seeing the schedule at the start of the season, I can say nobody foresaw this being a clash of the 7-3 teams, but here we are. The Giants are looking to bounce back after a frustrating defeat against the Detroit Lions, whilst the Cowboys are fresh off of an absolute demolition job against the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams met in week 3, with the Cowboys winning 24-16. The Cowboys are (-9.5) favorites which is generous to the Giants after their performance last weekend.
Tony Pollard Over 66.5 rushing yards (-105)
The Dallas Cowboys currently rank 8th in rushing yards per game (136.2) and the Giants rank 25th in rushing yards against per game (135.9), those numbers line up almost too perfectly. In the first matchup between the 2, Pollard had 13 carries for 105 yards, which is impressive as Zeke also had 15 carries and rushed for 73 yards, and now Zeke is once again questionable on this short week. Look for Zeke to have less than his 15 carries at the weekend and see more work in the redzone while Pollard sees a similar workload to recent weeks with 15-20 carries. Since week 2 he’s only averaged less than 4 yards per carry on 1 occasion, so 15 carries should see him easily surpass 66 as he’s averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season.
Daniel Jones Over 37.5 rushing yards (-120)
We’re continuing the quarterback rushing yards trend. Jones has seen his rushing numbers increase this season, as he’s played 1 less than last year and he has 139 more rushing yards than he did then. The reason is likely down to the lack of options he has with his receivers, an issue made even worse by Wan’Dale Robinson tearing his ACL after going for 100 yards on Sunday. The other obstacle for him is a Dallas defense that ranks 1st in passing yards allowed per game (174.5). A less daunting stat is that the Cowboys’ rush defense only ranks 22nd in yards allowed per game (136.1), so expect Jones and Saquon to use their legs a lot in this one, as long as they can keep it a close game. In a season where he’s averaging 7.6 carries and 5.75 yards per carry, 37.5 seems a very reasonable number for him.
New England Patriots (6-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
What a matchup we have to finish off the day. The Vikings are reeling from a 40-3 defeat to the Cowboys on Sunday whilst the Patriots saw a 3-3 game against the Jets saved by an 84-yard punt return touchdown with less than 30 seconds to go. The over line is sitting at 42.5 which seems very reasonable to go under after their paltry efforts scoring on Sunday. What’s difficult to judge is where the points are going to come from. Both teams have below-average rush yards per game, the Patriots rank 17th (115.4) and the Vikings 24th (103.6), and also below-average rush yards against per game, the Patriots rank 13th (114.5) and the Vikings 18th (121.6). If that wasn’t bad enough, the Vikings rank 10th in passing yards for per game (234.9) but the Patriots rank 4th in passing yards allowed per game (188.3). And although the Vikings rank 31st in passing yards allowed per game (267.3), the Patriots rank 24th in passing yards for (202.2). They’re counteracting each other all over the field, that under is looking tempting.
TJ Hockenson Over 4.5 receptions +100
Yes, the Patriots have a very strong pass defense, especially when they only allow 18 receptions per game, 2nd in the NFL, but I may have found a chink in the armor. TJ Hockenson in the 3 games he’s played for the Vikings so far is 2nd behind Justin Jefferson in target share (23.9%) with 28 targets! Of those, he’s managed to have 21 receptions. This may be a small sample size, but twice this season a tight end saw double-digit targets, Mark Andrews (13 targets, 8 catches for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Tyler Conklin (10 targets, 6 receptions for 79 yards). As I said it’s a small sample size, but with him becoming a favored target for Kirk Cousins, look for Hockenson to continue his run of form.
Jakobi Meyers Over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
To finish off we’re going to keep this one fairly simple. The Vikings have the 2nd worst passing yards allowed per game in the entire NFL (267.3). Jakobi Meyers leads the Patriots in target share (20.3%), and in 5 of 8 games has averaged over 13 yards per catch, and in 6 of 8 games has topped his over total of 51.5. Sometimes it doesn’t have to be over-complicated, let your best receiver feast on a very poor pass defense.
Special Thanksgiving Anytime Touchdown Parlay +2309
- Stefon Diggs
- Ezekiel Elliot
- New England D/ST
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.