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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Pick and Preview

Mike Evans

NFC South Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Falcons -1.5 | Total Points: 40.5

Coming into this week’s NFC matchup vs the Falcons, the Buccaneers have a below .500 record at 5-7. In their last game, the Buccaneers came out on top against the Panthers, winning by a score of 21-18. On the point spread, the Buccaneers were favored by 3.5 against the Panthers. Even though they won by 3 it was not enough to cover. Heading into the game, the over/under line was 37 points. As they combined for 39 points, the over hit.

Heading into this week’s matchup against Tampa Bay, the Falcons have won two straight games and have a current record of 6-6. During their last game, the Falcons came out on top against the Jets, finishing with a score of 13-8. Given that they were favored by 2 against the Jets, the Falcons picked up an ATS win. The under hit in the Falcons’ most recent game, where the teams’ combined total was 21 points. The line prior to the game stood at 33.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons History

In the two head-to-head matchups last season, the Buccaneers and Falcons each picked up one win apiece. Against the spread, the Falcons had the edge in last year’s head-to-head matchups, going 2-0. On the over/under, the teams averaged 41.5 points per game, leading to an OU mark of 1-1. On offense, the two teams finished with similar production in yardage, with the Buccaneers averaging 321 yards per game compared to the Falcons at 321.5.

When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Falcons have the leg up at 2-1. The Falcons also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 37 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Notable Injuries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Rakim Jarrett – Quad (Out)
  • K.J. Britt – Back (Probable)
  • Ryan Jensen – Knee (Out)
  • Russell Gage – Knee (Out)
  • Jamel Dean – Ankle/foot (Questionable)
  • Devin White – Foot (Questionable)
  • Mike Greene – Calf (Out)
  • Silas Dzansi – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Robert Hainsey – Knees (Probable)
  • Cody Mauch – Foot (Questionable)
  • Josh Hayes – Illness (Questionable)
  • Vita Vea – Toe (Questionable)
  • Tristan Wirfs – Ankle/back (Questionable)
  • J.J. Russell – Personal (Questionable)

Atlanta Falcons

  • Barry Wesley – Undisclosed (Out)
  • David Onyemata – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Drew Dalman – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Jeff Okudah – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Ikenna Enechukwu – Leg (Out)
  • Jacob Saylors – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Josh Ali – Ankle (Out)
  • LaCale London – Knee (Questionable)
  • Feleipe Franks – Foot (Out)
  • A.J. Terrell – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Ethan Greenidge – Leg (Out)
  • Matt Hennessy – Knee (Out)
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji – Foot (Out)
  • Avery Williams – Knee (Out)
  • Troy Andersen – Arm (Out)
  • Nate Landman – Knee (Questionable)
  • Kaleb McGary – Knee (Questionable)
  • Mike Hughes – Hand (Probable)
  • Mack Hollins – Ankle (Probable)
  • Grady Jarrett – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay enters this week’s action averaging 19.4 points per game, placing them 20th in the NFL. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2790 yards, with the team ranking 19th in yards per game through the air. This below-average production has come despite the team averaging 34.2 passing attempts. Wide receiver Mike Evans is pacing the Buccaneers with 1012 receiving yards. Overall, he has 61 catches on 103 targets. If the Buccaneers are going to turn things around on offense, they would benefit from improving their numbers on the ground. So far, Tampa Bay is ranked just 24th in attempts and 30th in yards.

Keys To Victory: Atlanta Falcons

Desmond Ridder and the Atlanta offense enter this week 14 matchup, averaging 18.8 points per contest, placing them 21st in the NFL. This season, he has completed 63.3% of his passes, leading an average of 184 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 26th among QB’s in passing yards and 25th in attempts. Drake London has been targeted 73 times this season, and has caught 46 passes this season. He comes into the game with a total of 573 receiving yards. The Falcons come in with an average of 4.2 yards per rushing attempt while running the ball an average of 32.2 times per game. In terms of total rushing yardage, they currently rank 6th in the league.

Betting Trends

  • Although Tampa Bay has a straight-up record of 3-7 in their last ten road games, they have gone 5-5 ATS. The team averaged 19 points per game in these games.
  • Across the Falcons’ last ten home games, the team averaged 14 points per game while allowing 19. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 3-7 while going 2-8 straight-up.
  • Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Tampa Bay has an ATS mark of 2-1 while going 0-3 straight up.
  • Going back to their last three games as the favorite, the Falcons have a straight up record of 1-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.


  • Atlanta Falcons 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
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