Steelers vs Falcons Pick and Preview
Non-Conference NFL Matchup
Point Spread: Falcons +1.0 | Total Points: 42.0
Heading into week 13 action, the Steelers are a below .500 team with an overall record of 4-7. Last week, the team picked up a victory over the Indianapolis Colts (24-17) on Monday Night Football. In addition to winning the game, the Steelers covered the spread as they were 2.5-point underdogs. With their combined 41 points, the two teams exceeded the betting over-under number of 39.
Leading into their week 13 NFC South matchup against Pittsburgh, the Falcons have an overall record of 5-7. In week 12, the Atlanta Falcons dropped their NFC matchup against the Commanders by a score of 19-13. With the loss, Atlanta also failed to cover the spread, as they were 3.5 underdogs. The team’s combined scoring of 32 points fell below the posted betting line of 40.
Steelers vs Falcons History
There were no matchups between Pittsburgh and Atlanta in the 2021-2022 season. In the last 3 games between Atlanta and Pittsburgh, the Steelers have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 12 points per contest. Across the last 3 head-to-head matchups, Pittsburgh is averaging 27 points compared to Atlanta at 15.
Atlanta will look to do a better job at home in this series, as across their 3 most home recent games vs Pittsburgh, they are just 0-2-1.
Notable Injuries
Pittsburgh Steelers
- T.J. Watt (Ribs) Questionable
- Myles Jack (Knee) Questionable
- Cameron Heyward (Toe) Questionable
- Mason Cole (Foot) Probable
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (Ribs) Probable
- Ahkello Witherspoon (Hamstring) Questionable
- Larry Ogunjobi (Toe) Questionable
- Benny Snell Jr. (Knee) Questionable
- Robert Spillane (Back) Questionable
- Najee Harris (Oblique) Questionable
- DeMarvin Leal (Knee) Questionable
Atlanta Falcons
- Arnold Ebiketie (Forearm) Questionable
- Jalen Mayfield (Back) Questionable
- Jalen Dalton (Toe) Questionable
- Chuma Edoga (Knee) Questionable
- Elijah Wilkinson (Knee) Questionable
Keys To Victory: Pittsburgh Steelers
Against Atlanta, the Steelers will be on the attack in the passing game, as they are throwing the ball an average of 35.9 times per contest. Their preference to air the ball out has led to the team ranking just 28th in points per game (17.64). Kenny Pickett is averaging 200.0 passing yards per game on a completion percentage of 66.0%. Heading into the game, the team’s top receiver George Pickens is matched up against the league’s 30th-ranked secondary. For the year, he has been targeted 59 times for 510 yards.
Across the season, Pittsburgh has outrushed their opponents in 54.55% of their games. This comes while ranking just 21st in the league in rush yards per game (113.64).
Keys To Victory: Atlanta Falcons
On offense, the Falcons come into the game ranked 14th in the NFL at 22.7 points per game. Atlanta currently has a negative scoring differential of -1.75 points per contest. In this week’s matchup, look for the Falcons offense to attack the Steelers’ secondary, as the unit has had its problems defending the pass. For the season, Atlanta is averaging 155.33 yards per contest through the air. This year, Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrown for a total of 2052 passing yards on a passer rating of 89.52. In week 13, Mariota is a candidate for a strong performance vs a secondary that can be taken advantage of through the air. Going into the game, the team’s leader in receiving yards is Olamide Zaccheaus, who has caught 76.9% of the balls thrown his way for a total of 465 yards.
Something will have to give in this week’s matchup between the Atlanta ground game and the Pittsburgh front seven, as the Falcons are one of the league’s top rushing attacks but will need to be on top of their game, the Steelers have been tough to run against this year. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Tyler Allgeier, who is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Through 11 games, he has rushed for a total of 552 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Pittsburgh is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
- Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
Prediction
This game should be close, but we like the Falcons to win in a close game. See all our NFL Picks Here
