RBC Heritage 2023 Betting Picks & Tips

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The RBC Heritage 2023

The PGA Tour shifts from Augusta, Georgia, to Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, for the RBC Heritage – an event that was first played in 1969. We have 132 golfers competing this week, and the top 65 players plus ties will move on to play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday.

There’s $20M to be won this week, the winner takes home a ridiculous $3.6M, and also banks 500 FedEx Cup points. Harbour Town Golf Links is 7,191 yards in length, is a par 71, and the small greens are poa. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -13.8, so the course is challenging despite being fairly short. The record at this tournament is -22 and it happened just three years ago when Webb Simpson was victorious. Some core key stats to focus on this week, in order, including strokes gained: approach, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: putting, and strokes gained: around the green.

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Three questions that are relevant to the RBC Heritage this week:

1. Strokes gained total is always an important stat to look at, so which 10 players have fared the best over their last 24 rounds? Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, and Collin Morikawa.
2. Which 10 players gained the most strokes total (minimum 8 rounds) at this event since 2018? Patrick Cantlay (14 rounds), JT Poston (14 rounds), Shane Lowry (14 rounds), Cameron Davis (8 rounds), Erik van Rooyen (8 rounds), Matt Kuchar (20 rounds), Webb Simpson (20 rounds), Justin Thomas (8 rounds), Tommy Fleetwood (10 rounds), and Matt Fitzpatrick (18 rounds).
3. What’s my top calculated bet for the week (the goal here is to at least double the wager)? I would recommend betting Patrick Cantlay to finish top 10 here as he has four top 7’s here in five starts including finishing 2nd last year, and has also been solid lately. I also really like Shane Lowry to finish top 20 this week – bet them both and you’ll likely come out on top in both instances.

Below you will find players that I will bet, might bet, and five random bets that interest me. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable or break even in roughly 70% of the weeks I’m active.

5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting

Patrick Cantlay (+1200) – I really like the prospects for Cantlay this week as he has been lights out at this event over the years, and has three top 9’s over his last five starts including his runner-up finish a year ago. If his putter gets back on track this week then he could absolutely win, hands down. I like him as an outright bet, a top 5 bet, and a top-10 wager, as well.

Cameron Young (+2200) – He’s all business when he’s out on the links and his first PGA Tour win is coming at some point this season I believe. He has locked up three top 10’s over his last four tournaments played, and looked sound last week at Augusta to finish T7 at the Masters. In his first look here last year, he finished T3 and every part of his game was working except for a chilly putter. I’ll be betting Young much the same way as Cantlay above, but won’t spend quite as much given his odds are more favorable.

Shane Lowry (+3500) – Lowry has been a model of consistency at this venue over the last four years with two T3’s and a T9, has had a couple of teen finishes over his last six starts, and had a T5 during that same stretch. I really like him as a top 10 and top 20 bet this week, and I’m tempted to dip into top 5 territory but may hold off on that given this week’s field is stronger than most years past.

Matt Kuchar (+4500) – Kuuuuch had a T3 here a year ago and has six top 11’s over the last nine editions of this event, plus he has been outstanding lately too with back-to-back top 9’s including a T3 two weeks ago in Texas. I’m all over his top 20 at +180 and will inquire about his top 10 also given the odds are currently at +400.

Jordan Spieth (+2200) – It was pretty much a given that Spieth was going to have a top 10 last week at the Masters given he has the course completely figured out and has for many years now. I really like that Jordan has three top 4’s over his last five starts, and four top 6’s over his last seven – he’s primed to repeat this week as RBC Heritage champ. I believe I’ll bet Spieth to repeat and finish top 10 as a hedge.

5 Players That I Might Bet

Jon Rahm (+1000) – Rahm was really solid down the stretch last week to earn his Green Jacket at Augusta. I believe that he can win again this week but it’s hard to say where his head is at after last week given he just won the biggest golf tournament in the world. I’m cautiously optimistic about Jon’s odds this week, but I want to hear how he’s feeling prior to laying down some bets.

Scottie Scheffler (+850) – His putter was ice-cold last week but he still had a T10 because his ball-striking was great as it usually is. He’s a top 10 monster now and I certainly don’t expect that to change anytime soon as he really has the game of golf figured out, and at such a young age. I’m not sure how to navigate Scheffler’s stock this week, but believe he will make some noise as a rookie at this tournament.

Corey Conners (+5500) – Conners won two weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open, and his strong approach game has really done wonders here on this track as he has three consecutive top 21’s including a T4 in 2021. I feel pretty good about betting on Corey to rebound from his missed cut at the Masters, but I likely won’t decide what to do with the Canadian until Wednesday evening.

Viktor Hovland (+2200) – I thoroughly enjoy watching Hovland go right after pins on a regular basis, he plays to win and believes in his approach game enough to seldom play it safe. He had a T7 last week and has three top 10’s over his last four starts – none better than his T3 at THE PLAYERS Championship last month. He had a T21 here three years ago and his golf game is far better now, so he could contend this week if his short game shows up. I think I’ll take some action on Viktor this week, but haven’t made up my mind on my approach just yet.

JT Poston (+6000) – I’m not much of a Poston gambler, but I do like his prospects for this week given he has three top 8’s over the last four years including last year’s T3. He also has two top 10’s over his last three tournaments played, and seems like a good betting value given he’s fairly far down the betting board due to the great strength of the field this week. I don’t expect him to finish top 10 this week, but like his +100 top 40 number and will consider a top 20 also.

5 Other Interesting Bets

Top 40 – Wyndham Clark (+135) – With two consecutive top 6’s, and seven straight top 37’s, Clark has some appeal as a top 40 bet this week as he has fared quite well even in strong fields since January. He had a T35 here last year and I can see him doing something similar once more.

Wyndham Clark (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – The bomber is trending right now with back-to-back top 6’s, he has four top 10’s over his last nine starts, and has made 12 straight-cut lines. He has made the cut here every time he has teed it up since 2019, and his best finish came just last year when he finished T35. RBC Heritage finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T35, 2021 – T64, 2020 – T64, 2019 – T54.

Winning Margin – 1 Stroke Exactly (+225) and a Playoff (+300) – Five of the past six years the winner has either won by a stroke or in a playoff. This is also true in eight out of the past ten years, as well.

To Make the Cut Parlay – Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Matt Kuchar, and Wyndham Clark (+175) – These guys are pretty sound when it comes to making cut lines, and I feel good about these odds that these four talented players will all see the weekend.

Tournament Matchup – JT Poston over Denny McCarthy (-110) – JT has been hot as of late and tends to play very well at this event also, so I feel pretty good about him defeating Denny this week.

Nationality Props – Continental European – Jon Rahm (-125) – Viktor Hovland could give Rahm some trouble in this matchup, but Jon is coming off the win at the Masters and could very well go back-to-back this week if his motivation level is still high.

Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!