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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview

Stefon Diggs

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Bills -10 | Total Points: 36

Coming into this Wild Card round AFC matchup, the Steelers are in the middle of a three-game winning streak and have an above .500 record of 10-7. The last time Pittsburgh played, the Steelers beat the Ravens with a final score of 17-10. Being favored by 2.5 points against the Ravens, the Steelers came through with an ATS win. The under hit in the Steelers’ most recent game, as the teams combined for 27 points. The line going into the game was 34.

Overall, the Bills have an above .500 record at 11-6, and they come into the game on a five-game winning streak. In AFC action, the team is 7-5. After a 21-14 victory over the Dolphins, the Bills are looking for another win in week 1. Heading into the game, the Bills were favored by 2.5. Their 7-point win was enough to cover the spread. The under bettors were successful in the Bills’ most recent game, with a combined total of 35 points. The game’s betting line was 48.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills History

When looking back on the last three head-to-head matchups between Pittsburgh and Buffalo, the Bills hold the edge with a record of 2-1. Not only does the team have the better record, but they have won in convincing fashion, posting an average scoring differential of 13 points.

  • Across the Steelers’ last ten road games, the team averaged 17 points per game while allowing 18. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 7-3 straight-up.
  • When looking at their past ten home matchups, Buffalo has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 25 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Steelers have a straight-up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.
  • Through their last five games as the favorite, the Bills have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 5-0.

Notable Injuries

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Cory Trice Jr. – Knee (Out)
  • Alfonzo Graham – Shoulder (Out)
  • Renell Wren – Achilles (Out)

Buffalo Bills

  • Baylon Spector – Hamstring (Out)
  • Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
  • Damar Hamlin – Gameday Inactive (Out)
  • Alec Anderson – Gameday Inactive (Out)
  • Kaiir Elam – Gameday Inactive (Out)
  • Kingsley Jonathan – Gameday Inactive (Out)
  • Germain Ifedi – Gameday Inactive (Out)
  • Von Miller – Knee (Out)
  • Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
  • Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
  • Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh offense hasn’t looked good so far this season, with an average of only 17.9 points per contest. This has the Steelers sitting 26th in the NFL. Looking at their passing game, the Steelers come in with an average of 186.1 passing yards per game, which is 25th in the league. Presently, 53.3% of their first downs are credited to the passing game. Points have been hard to come by for the team, despite their success in the rushing game. So far, the Pittsburgh offense is not only near the top of the league in yards at 118.2 per game, but they are also an above-average team in terms of attempts.

Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills

Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the team’s 6th-ranked scoring offense will need to be on top of their game to cover the spread as -10 point betting favorites. For the season, Allen is averaging 253 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 4th among quarterbacks. Allen comes in with a passer rating of 92.2 and is averaging 11.2 yards per completion. Against the Steelers, the team will look to get receiver Stefon Diggs involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 9.4 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 1183. On the ground, the Bills have ran the ball an average of 30.1 times per game and are 7th in rushing yards. So far, they are averaging 4.2 yards per rushing attempt.

Betting Trends

  • Across their last three road contests, Pittsburgh has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 20 points per game.
  • Across their last three home contests, Buffalo has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 21 points per game.
  • Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Steelers have gone 6-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 6-4.
  • In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Bills have a straight-up record of 7-3 and an ATS mark of 3-7.


  • Buffalo Bills 26 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18
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