Thanksgiving Non-Conference NFL Matchup
Point Spread: Patriots +2.5 | Total Points: 42.5
Heading into this week’s matchup against Minnesota, the Patriots have won 3 straight games and have a current record of 6-4. The Patriots go into week 12, looking for another win, as they picked up 7 point victory over the New York Jets (10-3). This win was paired with an ATS victory, as they went into the game by -3.5 point favorites. The team’s combined scoring of 13 points fell below the posted betting line of 38.
Leading into their week 12 non-conference matchup against New England, the Vikings have an overall record of 8-2. The Vikings will look to get back in the win column, as they are coming off a 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. With the loss, Minnesota also failed to cover the spread, as they were 2.0 underdogs. With an over-under betting line of 48, the two teams fell below that figure as they combined for 43.
Patriots vs Vikings History
The two teams did not play each other in the 2021-2022 regular season. In the last 3 games between Minnesota and New England, the Patriots have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 16 points per contest. Across the last 3 head-to-head matchups, New England is averaging 27 points compared to Minnesota at 11.
When looking at the last 3 times the Patriots have traveled to U.S. Bank Stadium, they have put together a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, New England holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 38, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.
Notable Injuries
New England Patriots
- Marcus Jones (Ankle) Questionable
- Anfernee Jennings (Back) Questionable
- Josh Uche (Hamstring) Questionable
- Isaiah Wynn (Foot) Questionable
- David Andrews (Thigh) Questionable
- DeVante Parker (Knee) Questionable
Minnesota Vikings
- Za’Darius Smith (Knee) Questionable
- Dalvin Tomlinson (Calf) Questionable
- Ben Ellefson (Groin) Questionable
- Andrew Booth Jr. (Knee) Questionable
- Akayleb Evans (Concussion) Questionable
Keys To Victory: New England Patriots
On offense, the Patriots are ranked 20th in the league at 21.3 points per game. They will need a strong offensive performance in order to pull out the win as 2 point underdogs. Overall, Jones is ranked 32nd among quarterbacks in yards per game at 198.0. This figure has come on a completion percentage of 68.7%. In his last game, he finished with a passer rating of 104.63 while throwing for 246 yards. Against the Vikings, the team will look to get receiver Jakobi Meyers involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 7.25 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 509.
Although Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots rushing attack is averaging just 115.4 yards per game on the ground, they could be asked to take on a heavier load as Minnesota struggles to defend the run. This year, Stevenson is averaging 4.5 yards per rush attempt.
Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings
Through 10 games, the Vikings offense is ranked 13th in the league at 22.9 points per contest. Minnesota has made up for half of the scoring in their games. So far, the Vikings have been one of the best passing units in the NFL, averaging 234.9 yards per game through the air. However, if they are going to maintain their usual level of production, they will need to do so against a Patriots defense that has been strong against the pass. This season, Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2461 passing yards on a completion percentage of 63.4. His current passer rating of 85.65 is below average compared to other quarterbacks. Going into the game, the team’s leader in receiving yards is Justin Jefferson, who has caught 68.6% of the balls thrown his way for a total of 1093 yards.
This week, don’t expect the Vikings to find much success on the ground, as they are not only one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, but they have a tough matchup against a Patriots defense giving up just 114.5 yards per game against the run. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. Through 10 games, he has rushed for a total of 799 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
- New England is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- New England is 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- New England is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
- New England is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
Prediction
After the beatdown the Vikings took last week, many people will think upset here, but we’re confident in a bounce-back game. Despite the short week, we like the Vikings to win and cover in this Thanksgiving Sunday Night Game.
See all our Week 12 NFL Picks here
