New England Patriots vs New York Jets Pick and Preview
AFC East Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Jets +2.5 | Total Points: 40.5
Leading into their week 8 AFC East matchup against New York, the Patriots have an overall record of 3-4. In week 7, the New England Patriots dropped a non-conference matchup against the Bears by a score of 33-14. With the loss, New England failed to cover the spread, as they had an 8.5-point advantage on the spread. With their combined 40 points, the two teams had an over-under push.
On the other side, the Jets have won 4 straight games and have a current record of 5-2. Last week, the Jets knocked off the Broncos by a score of 16-9, giving them an important win over an AFC opponent. This win was paired with an ATS victory, as they went into the game by 2.0-point favorites. The over-under betting total going into the game was 37, which the teams did not surpass.
Patriots vs Jets History
Last year, the Patriots dominated the season series, winning by scores of 54-13 and 25-6. In the last matchup between the two teams, the Patriots went into the game as 7.0-point home favorites. Not only did they come away with a 54-13 win, but they also covered the spread.
In the last 3 games between New York and New England, the Patriots have gone 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 24 points per contest. Across the last 3 head-to-head matchups, New England is averaging 35 points compared to New York at 11. This week, the Jets will look to do a better job defending their home field, as they have gone 0-3 in the last 3 games of this series as the host. In terms of betting, New England holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 23.0, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.
New England Patriots
- Christian Barmore (Knee) Questionable
- Nelson Agholor (Hamstring) Questionable
- Jonathan Jones (Ankle) Questionable
- Anfernee Jennings (Calf) Questionable
- Mike Onwenu (Ankle) Questionable
- David Andrews (Concussion) Questionable
- Kyle Dugger (Ankle) Questionable
- Adrian Phillips (Shoulder) Questionable
- Josh Uche (Hamstring) Questionable
- Yodny Cajuste (Thumb) Questionable
- Isaiah Wynn (Shoulder) Questionable
- Kendrick Bourne (Toe) Questionable
New York Jets
- Ashtyn Davis (Hamstring) Questionable
- Jermaine Johnson (Ankle) Questionable
- Duane Brown (Shoulder) Questionable
- John Franklin-Myers (Illness) Probable
- Quincy Williams (Ankle) Probable
Keys To Victory: New England Patriots
The Patriots come into the game with the 17th-ranked scoring offense at 22.14 points per game. Even though New England is scoring at a rate near the league average, their strong defensive play has led to an average scoring margin of 1.29 points per game.
In the passing attack, the Patriots have put together a strong completion percentage of 68.2%. Yet, this has not translated into yards, as they have a per-game average of just 218.57. For the year, New England quarterback Mac Jones has thrown for a total of 799 passing yards on a passer rating of 70.81. However, in week 8, Jones is a candidate for a strong performance vs a secondary that can be taken advantage of through the air. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Jakobi Meyers, who comes into the game with 355 receiving yards.
The team has had its problems on offense, despite being one of the better rushing units in the NFL. On the season, New England is averaging 122.57 yards per game on the ground, good for 12th in the league. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Rhamondre Stevenson, who is averaging 5.0 yards per attempt. Through 7 games he has rushed for a total of 487 yards on the ground.
Keys To Victory: New York Jets
On offense, the Jets come into the game ranked 14th in the NFL at 22.71 points per game. So far, they have been able to rely on a defensive unit that is ranked 10th in the league in points allowed per contest.
Not only is the team struggling to pick up yards through the air, but they have also struggled to use the pass to move the chains. For the year, New York is just 20th in the NFL in 3rd downs converted in the passing game. For the year, New York quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown for a total of 693 passing yards but has only 1 passing touchdown. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Corey Davis, who comes into the game with 351 receiving yards on a per-reception average of 18.5 yards.
If the team is going to improve their overall offensive numbers, they would benefit from having more success on the ground. Heading into today’s game, the team’s below-average number of rush attempts has turned into an average of just 117.0 rushing yards per game. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Breece Hall, who is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. Through 7 games, he has rushed for a total of 463 yards on the ground. However, they will need to replace his production as he is out for the season with a knee injury.
- New England is 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- New England is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
- New England is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
We like the Patriots to win a close battle.
See all of Week 8’s NFL Picks here