NFL Week 11 Pick: Rams vs. Saints

Andy Dalton

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints Pick and Preview

NFC Matchup

Point Spread: Rams +3.5 | Total Points: 39.0

This week, the Rams will look to snap their current 3 game losing streak with a victory over the Saints. Heading into action, the team has a below .500 record of 3-6. Last week, the Rams lost in a divisional matchup against Arizona Cardinals by a score of 27-17. Going into the game, the oddsmakers had the Rams as the -3.5 favorite. The over-under total was set at 38 points, which the teams surpassed.

As the Saints prepare for their NFC South matchup against Los Angeles, they have an overall record of 3-7 and are in the midst of 2 game losing streak. Coming off a 20-10 non-conference loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Saints will look to get back in the win column vs Los Angeles. New Orleans lost the game by more than anticipated, as the oddsmakers placed New Orleans as 1.0 point underdogs. Together, the two teams combined score remained below the over-under betting line of 39.

Quick Links For Week 11

Rams vs Saints History

In the 2021-2022 season, the two teams did not have a head-to-head matchup against each other. In the last 3 head-to-head matchups, the Rams are averaging 29 points per game, compared to the Saints at 25. These figures have led to Los Angeles posting a record of 2-1.

The last 3 times that the Saints have hosted Los Angeles, they have a record of 0-3. In terms of betting, Los Angeles holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 3-2 in the previous 5 meetings.

Notable Injuries

Los Angeles Rams

  • Brian Allen (Thumb) Questionable
  • Travin Howard (Hip) Questionable
  • John Wolford (Neck) Questionable
  • David Edwards (Concussion) Questionable
  • Greg Gaines (Elbow) Probable
  • A’Shawn Robinson (Illness) Questionable

New Orleans Saints

  • Mark Ingram II (Knee) Questionable
  • Cameron Jordan (Eye) Questionable
  • Jarvis Landry (Ankle) Questionable
  • Josh Andrews (Illness) Questionable
  • Andrus Peat (Tricep) Questionable
  • James Hurst (Concussion) Questionable
  • Ryan Ramczyk (Illness) Questionable
  • Marshon Lattimore (Abdomen) Questionable
  • J.T. Gray (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Marcus Maye (Abdomen) Questionable
  • Marcus Davenport (Calf) Questionable
  • Malcolm Roach (Ankle) Questionable
  • Pete Werner (Ankle) Questionable
  • Trevor Penning (Foot) Questionable

Keys To Victory: Los Angeles Rams

Compared to other teams, the Los Angeles offense is having problems putting up points, averaging just 16.44 points per contest. The team’s lackluster offense has contributed 43.0% of the scoring in their games, leading to an average point differential of -5.78. So far, the Rams have been one of the top passing units in terms of attempts. For the season, they are averaging 36.0 attempts per contest. However, if they are going to maintain their usual level of production, they will need to do so against a Saints defense that has been strong against the pass. On the season, quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 68.4% of his passes for a total of 1928 passing yards. However, he will need to be sharp vs a New Orleans secondary that has been good against the pass. Going into the game, the team’s leader in receiving yards is Cooper Kupp, who has caught 76.5% of the balls thrown his way for a total of 812 yards.

This season, yards have been hard to come by on the ground for Los Angeles, as they are currently ranked 32nd in offensive rushing yards per game. But this week’s matchup versus New Orleans presents an opportunity to improve this figure, as the Saints’ defense is one of the worst units at defending the run. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Darrell Henderson Jr., averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. Through 9 games, he has rushed for a total of 274 yards on the ground.

Keys To Victory: New Orleans Saints

Andy Dalton and the NFL’s 17th head to New Orleans looking to take care of business, as they are the 3.5-point favorites on the spread. Dalton is averaging 222.71 passing yards per game through the air for the season. This figure has him sitting 25th among quarterbacks. Dalton is coming off a 174-yard passing performance, leading to a passer rating of 62.89. Chris Olave has been targeted 77 times and has caught 59.7% of the passes thrown his way. He comes into the game with a total of 658 receiving yards.

Running back Alvin Kamara heads a New Orleans rushing attack, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Overall, he is the league’s 25th-ranked running back in yards per game. The Saints have struggled to move the ball on the ground as a team, which figures to continue against a tough New Orleans rush defense.

Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles is 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Los Angeles is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
  • Los Angeles is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.


It’s hard to believe the Saints are the favorites over the Rams the week; this has been a weird year. Both teams have weaknesses, but we think this will be a field goal type game. Saints win 26-24

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

To Top