Prop Bets

NFL Prop Bets Week 17: Lions vs. Bears

Amon Ra St.Brown 1

NFL Prop Bets

After a throwaway game from Tennessee left us with little to choose from on Thursday, we’re now looking ahead to a must-win game for the Lions. The Chicago Bears (3-12) travel to Detroit (7-8) in what is shaping up to be a run-heavy, high-scoring matchup with the teams tied dead last for most touchdowns conceded per game (3.3). The Lions head into this matchup as favorites (-6), with the over set at 52.5, with the Bears looking to take them all the way in hopefully a very competitive football game.

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Justin Fields Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115)

One bright spot in this bleak Chicago season has been the emergence of Justin Fields and his ability to run the football has been the main driving force in their offense. In the last 9 games, Fields has topped 71+ yards on 7 occasions, failing to do so in blowout losses to the Cowboys and the Bills. Detroit’s rush defense sits 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (145.9) and the Bears rank 1st in rushing yards per game (179.7). Combine those stats with this game, likely going back and forth in scoring, Chase Claypool being questionable for the game, and Darnell Mooney on IR. Fields will likely have to use his feet to scramble out of the pocket with his limited options downfield.

Amon-Ra St.Brown Over 82.5 receiving yards (-115)

It seems easy to pick the alpha receiver on a pass-heavy team, but the game script may see St.Brown have a busy afternoon. He hasn’t hit the total in his last 3, but in the week 10 meeting between these two teams he had 10 catches for 119 yards, and with Jaylon Johnson now missing for the Bears, look for ARSB to get one over on his brother Equanimeous once more. Even with the return of Jameson Williams and DJ Chark, St Brown still dominates the team in targets, and in their last 3, he’s had a 28.6% target share, way ahead of second-place D’Andre Swift (16.2%). The Bears are allowing 209.1 yards per game in the air (12th), and with Jared Goff topping 330+ yards in 3 of their last 4, the Bears’ defense may continue to struggle to contain the downfield threat as they have in recent weeks against the likes of Gabe Davis and Christian Watson.

David Montgomery anytime touchdown scored (+110)

With Chase Claypool likely still missing, Montgomery has seen 3+ receptions in both of the games Claypool has missed, including a receiving touchdown against the Eagles 2 weeks ago. He’s totaled 4 touchdowns in his last 5 matchups, and has topped 60 yards rushed in 4 of 5 as well, so he’s been a focal point of late for the Bears when Fields doesn’t go it alone.  With the Lions tied last with touchdowns conceded (3.3), the Bears should have ample opportunity in the redzone. Montgomery first touchdown is very tempting as well at +1000 for a light sprinkle too.

Kyler Gordon tackles + assisted over 4.5 (-115)

As somebody who’s delved into the defensive side of fantasy football in recent years, it’s hard not to take note of some of the D/ST lines and we’ve had some nice hits in recent weeks, including Quincy Williams last week. This time around rookie Kyler Gordon looks to improve on his steady first year in the league, he’s had 4+ tackles in 4 of his last 5, and once again with Jaylon Johnson out look for Gordon to continue his emergence and go after the strong set of Lions receivers.

Have a wonderful New Years everybody!

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