Week 1 NFL Picks
The NFL season is in full swing, and we are excited to pick some winners by making a Week 1 prediction and pick while choosing some select games. This is my first time writing this column for Picks Calculator, but to give you a little idea of who I am, I have been picking winners for 25 years. I am 37. Starting a Pickem league at age 12 is impressive. Therefore, it gives me all the experience to provide you with the best Week 1 prediction.
I will highlight seven of the best games (in my humble opinion) with an element of storylines and great matchups. Why seven? Seven is the number you always pick when someone asks you to pick a number, and it’s an excellent choice for historical data. I analyze the team rankings and trends from the previous season for the first two weeks. Then, I will adjust accordingly based on what happens this season.
We will use the lines from our NFL Odds page to showcase the odds and then make a pick. Then, you can make predictions based on the betting odds while fully understanding the games. With that said, come with me as I make a Week 1 prediction for seven marquee games.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (O/U 49.5)
- The Jags averaged 22.2 points per game last season.
- The Dolphins allowed 23.2 points per game.
- The Dolphins averaged 27.9 points per game.
- The Jaguars allowed 21.8 points per game and 23.1 points on the road.
- These Florida teams have not met since December 10, 2021, when the Jaguars edged out the Dolphins 23-20 at EverBank Stadium.
- Public opinion favors the Dolphins in this one because of their talent level and their home-field advantage.
- Vegas has an implied score of 27-23 in favor of the Dolphins.
Trevor Lawrence will look to get the Jaguars off to a good start as he leads the Jaguars south into Hard Rock Stadium to face the Dolphins. He will have Travis Etienne back by his side and ready to run the ball through the seams. However, Lawrence will have a slightly different receiving core. Unfortunately, Calvin Ridley is gone. That means Lawrence will have to rely on Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. Ultimately, the Jags must avoid turnovers. They had 30 last season, which was the fifth-highest in the league. It puts too much pressure on the defense, who will already have their hands full attempting to stop the Dolphins’ high-powered offense.
Tua Tagovailoa looks to continue the momentum he built last season. He will have the two-headed monster of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane to assist him. Likewise, he will continue to fire deep passes to Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa will also throw slot passes and outside options for Jaylen Waddle. This squad was the best in the NFL in offense and second-best in scoring last season. This offense must score to give the defense some breathing room. Ultimately, the change in coordinator from Vic Fangio to Anthony Weaver will be essential to watch.
The Dolphins are slightly better than the Jaguars and will likely do enough to win here, thanks to an explosive offense and a defense that bends but does not break. While Lawrence may have a good game, it will not be enough to win on the road in Miami.
Final Prediction: Dolphins 31, Jaguars 27
Picks: Dolphins -3.5, Over 49.5
Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (O/U 48.5)
- The Texans averaged 22.7 points per game last season.
- The Colts allowed 24.4 points per game.
- The Colts averaged 23.3 points per game last season.
- The Texans allowed 21.1 points per game, including 21.3 points on the road.
- The Colts are 6-3-1 overall over the last 10 games against the Texans.
- The Colts are 3-2 over the last five games against the Texans at Lucas Oil Field.
- The Texans have gone 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against the AFC South.
- Public opinion gives the Texans a slight edge on the road, especially after they beat the Colts to finish the 2023 season.
- Vegas has an implied score of 26-23 in favor of the Texans.
CJ Stroud will lead the Texans into Lucas Oil Field this Sunday and was solid against the Colts last season. He had a passer rating of 114.4 while also chucking 648 yards and four touchdowns against Indianapolis in two games last season. Now, he will also have running back Joe Mixon by his side after the Texans landed him in a trade with the Cincinnati Bengals. Additionally, Stroud will have a new receiver, Stefon Diggs. Stroud already has Tank Dell and Nico Collins, in addition to tight end Dalton Schultz. This offense will perfectly complement a defense that is getting even better and ready to get to the next level this season with the leadership of pass rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
Anthony Richardson returns to lead the Colts and hopes to stay healthy. But the last time he faced the Texans, he suffered a concussion and exited the game. Richardson will look to avoid that fate this time around and will have running back Jonathan Taylor by his side. Additionally, he will make passes to Michael Pittman and second-round draft pick Adonai Mitchell. Indianapolis also returns a pass-rushing core that includes DeForest Buckner and Samson Ekubaum. However, they may have issues in the secondary, and facing the three-headed monster the Texans possess will be a tough challenge.
This will probably be the best game of the weekend. Three of the last four games between these two were decided by one score, with the Colts’ 31-20 win last season being the exception. We could see this being similar. Ultimately, the Texans have the better talent right now. While the Colts could earn a split down the line, we can see the Texans barely getting past Indianapolis again on the road.
Final Prediction: Texans 23, Colts 20
Picks: Colts +2.5, Under 48.5
Dallas Cowboys (+1) vs. Cleveland Browns (O/U 41/5)
- The Cowboys averaged 30.1 points per game last season, leading the NFL.
- The Browns allowed 22.6 points per game last season.
- The Browns averaged 22.8 points per game last season.
- The Cowboys allowed 20.2 points per game, including 20.9 points on the road.
- These teams last met on October 4, 2020, when the Browns overcame the Cowboys 49-38 in a high-scoring battle.
- The Cowboys are 4-1 over the past five games against the Browns.
- Public opinion has the Browns edging out the Cowboys.
- Vegas has an implied score of 21-20 in favor of the Browns.
The Cowboys will have Dak Prescott leading them again, now in a contract season. He will get Ezekiel Elliot back with Tony Pollard, who is now in Tennessee. Dalvin Cook also signed, but it’s unclear if he will play this weekend. Also, Ceedee Lamb returns after exploding for 135 grabs and 1,749 yards with 12 touchdowns. Tight end Jake Ferguson also returns to supplement Lamb and the pass catchers. Ultimately, this offense makes things easier for the defense, which will feature the return of Trevon Diggs. But the linebackers must step up to prevent teams from running the ball down their throats.
The Browns will see Deshaun Watson attempt to stay upright and lead Cleveland through another season. Assuming Watson can play well, he will also have Jerome Ford starting at running back this weekend. Likewise, Amari Cooper returns as the top pass catcher for the Browns, while Cleveland also signed Jerry Jeudy to a free-agent deal. Of course, Myles Garrett, the defensive player of the year, is back and will look to continue leading this defense alongside Za’Darius Smith. Defensive back Martin Emerson is the leader of the secondary, with four interceptions last season. He might have to shadow Lamb.
There are so many questions in Jerry’s World. Furthermore, the Browns are not the pushovers they used to be. That, combined with the fact that the game is in Cleveland, gives the Browns the edge to start the 2024 slate.
Final Prediction: Browns 20, Cowboys 17
Picks: Browns -1 (Under 41.5)
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 40.5)
- The Raiders averaged 19.5 points per game last season.
- The Chargers allowed 23.4 points per game last season.
- The Chargers averaged 20.4 points per game last season.
- The Raiders allowed 19.5 points per game, including 23.9 points on the road.
- The Raiders are 6-4 overall in the past 10 games against the Chargers.
- The Raiders are 6-4 against the spread over the past 10 games against the Chargers.
- The teams split the season series in 2023, with the Raiders shellacking the Chargers 63-21 on Thursday Night Football.
- The Raiders have only allowed 16 points per game since Antonio Pierce took over.
The Raiders will have Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback to start the season. Also, running back Zamir White gets his first true shot to be a starting running back for the Raiders after the departure of Josh Jacobs. Devonte Adams returns after catching 103 passes for 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns. Additionally, the Raiders drafted tight end Brock Bowers to pair with Michael Mayer. The defense was stout after Pierce took over. Now, they get an excellent test against one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, who will be looking for weapons to throw to.
The Chargers have a litany of questions. Who is Herbert going to throw to? Well, we will find out in this one. New coach Jim Harbaugh will likely implement a run game that combines the talents of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. Doing this will slow the Raiders down and allow the Chargers to find time to set up play-action. Moreover, it will be a good way to ease in rookie receiver Ladd McConkey, who could eventually turn into the top weapon in this offense.
The Chargers remember what the Raiders did to them last season. Consequently, it forced ownership’s hand and led to the eventual hiring of Harbaugh. Harbaugh is tough, but he is a winner. Therefore, he will not allow the Chargers to slack once. His game as a coach resulted in a 33-17 win for the 49ers over their division rivals, the Seattle Seahawks. Likewise, we could see a similar scenario here in his first game with the Chargers, who have similar talent to that Niners’ team.
Final Prediction: Chargers 27, Raiders 20
Picks: Chargers -3, Over 40.5
Washington Commanders (+3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 43.5)
- The Commanders averaged 19.4 points per game last season.
- The Buccaneers allowed 19.2 points per game last season.
- The Buccaneers averaged 21.2 points per game last season.
- The Commanders allowed 30.5 points per game, last in the league, and 22.3 points on the road.
- The teams last met in 2021, with the Commanders beating the Bucs 29-19 at FedEx Field.
- The Commanders are 4-1 over the past five regular-season games against the Bucs.
- This will be the first meeting between the two teams at Raymond James Stadium since 2018.
- Public opinion has the Buccaneers edging out the Commanders.
- Vegas has an implied score of 24-20 in favor of the Buccaneers.
The Commanders are excited after drafting Jayden Daniels with the second pick. Now, the young quarterback will get a team that has a new head coach, Dan Quinn, and a bunch of new faces. Take Austin Ekeler. He will transition from starting running back to a pass-catching specialist, which probably suits him more, given how much damage he has taken over the last few years. Terry McLaurin is back and will catch passes from Daniels. Ultimately, this offense will attempt to move the ball to make things easier for a defense that struggled to stop anybody last season.
Baker Mayfield was solid last season, passing for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Rachaad White is back. Likewise, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are back to catch passes from Mayfield. However, the defense may take a little hit with Shaq Barrett’s retirement and Carlton Davis III’s free-agent departure. The Bucs addressed the loss of Davis by signing safety Jordan Whitehead.
There is a major chance of an upset if the Commanders can spring off to an early lead. Yet, the Bucs have the experience on their side, and have done well in recent opening weeks. We can see the Bucs edging out the Commanders in this one.
Final Prediction: Bucs 23, Commanders 20
Picks: Commanders +3.5, Under 43.5
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (O/U 50.5)
- The Rams averaged 23.7 points per game last season.
- The Lions allowed 23.8 points per game last season.
- The Lions averaged 27.4 points per game last season.
- The Rams allowed 22.3 points per game, including 23.7 on the road.
- The Lions defeated the Rams 24-23 in the 2024 NFC Wildcard, Detroit’s first playoff win in over thirty years.
- The Rams are 3-2 over the last five regular-season games against the Lions.
- This will be the second matchup between the Rams and Lions since they traded quarterbacks Jared Goff and Matt Stafford to the other.
- Public opinion has the Lions taking this one at home to start the season.
- Vegas has an implied score of 27-23 in favor of the Lions.
This will be a rematch of the NFL Wildcard. Stafford will look to beat his old team for the first time. He will also have running back Kyren Williams and wide receiver Puka Nakua. Cooper Kupp is healthy and ready to go. But the Rams will not have Aaron Donald, as the longtime pass rusher retired. Expect Kobie Turner to be the new pass rusher in Los Angeles after leading the team with nine sacks. There are massive questions in the secondary.
Goff will return to lead the Lions and hopes to get even better. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will return as the 1-2 punch in the backfield. Furthermore, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta will once more lead the Lions’ charge as they stretch the field. Detroit still has the best offensive line in football, which allows them to move the chains and helps keep the defense fresh. Aidan Hutchinson is a monster in the pass rush after notching 11.5 sacks. Yet, there are still other issues in the defense that Detroit must address.
This game will go down to the wire, just like it did in the playoffs. While the Rams have some motivation to get revenge, the Lions are still slightly better. Expect Detroit to eke out another win.
Final Prediction: Lions 27, Rams 24
Picks: Rams +3.5, Over 50.5
New York Jets (+4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (O/U 42.5)
- The Jets averaged 15.8 points per game last season.
- The 49ers allowed 18.8 points per game last season.
- The 49ers averaged 28.6 points per game last season.
- The Jets allowed 20.9 points per game last season, including 22.4 points on the road.
- The 49ers are 11-3 against the Jets over 14 career showdowns.
- The 49ers defeated the Jets 31-13 in their last battle on September 20, 2020, at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
- San Francisco is 3-2 over the past five games against the Jets.
- Aaron Rodgers is 6-3 in nine regular-season games against the 49ers, including 3-1 at home.
- The public believes the 49ers will beat Rodgers and the Jets.
- Vegas has an implied score of 24-19 in favor of the 49ers.
Rodgers hopes to stay intact for more than one play. Unfortunately, he must face Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd, who are facing a patched-up offensive line. Breece Hall hopes to take some pressure off Rodgers by running the ball against a San Francisco squad that struggled against the run last season. Likewise, Garrett Wilson hopes to take that next step in his development after catching 95 passes for 1,042 yards and three scores. The defense is still elite. Ultimately, if Rodgers can extend drives, it can make things easier for the Jets’ D as they face one of the best offenses in football.
Brock Purdy was excellent last season but will start his 2024 season with a tough challenge. Luckily, he will have Christian McCaffrey running for him. This feels very much like a heavy McCaffrey game, as passing the ball will be almost impossible. Regardless, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle are back. The Niners also finally signed Brandon Aiyuk to a contract extension and reworked Trent Williams’ contract.
The Jets would have to play a nearly perfect game to shock the Niners on Monday in Santa Clara. But the Niners are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL, second only to the Kansas City Chiefs. Kyle Shanahan will design numerous schemes to produce points and pull away from the Jets in the fourth quarter.
Final Prediction: 49ers 31, Jets 23
Picks: 49ers -4.5, O 42.5
