AFC East Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Dolphins -9.5 | Total Points: 37
Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Dolphins, the Jets have a below .500 record at 5-8. In their previous game, the Jets secured a victory against the Texans by a score of 30-6. Despite being underdogs by 3, the Jets both won outright and covered the spread. The over/under line for their game vs. 33.5 points, which the teams exceeded with a combined 36 points.
Heading into the game, the Dolphins are the 2nd ranked team in the AFC with a record of 9-4. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 6-3. The Dolphins are coming off a game where they were defeated by the Titans with a final score of 28-27. In addition to losing straight-up, the Dolphins also lost vs. the spread as 13.5-point favorites. Totaling 55 points alongside Tennessee, the game’s point total exceeded the set over/under line of 44.
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins History
Last year, the Dolphins and Jets split their head-to-head matchups, with each team going 1-1. The Jets and Dolphins split their games vs. the spread last season. Together, they combined to average 37 points per contest and finished with an over/under mark of 1-1. Offensively, the Dolphins averaged 298.5 yards per game in the head-to-head matchups compared to the Jets at 254.5 yards.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Dolphins have the leg up at 2-1. The Dolphins also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 39 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
Notable Injuries
New York Jets
- Aaron Rodgers – Achilles (Questionable)
- Al Woods – Achilles (Out)
- C.J. Uzomah – Knee (Out)
- Connor McGovern – Knee (Out)
- Wes Schweitzer – Calf (Out)
- Chuck Clark – Knee (Out)
- Tanzel Smart – Undisclosed (Out)
- Ifeadi Odenigbo – Undisclosed (Out)
- Alijah Vera-Tucker – Achilles (Out)
- Bradlee Anae – Undisclosed (Out)
- Solomon Thomas – Knee (Probable)
- Mekhi Becton – Knee (Probable)
- Breece Hall – Ankle (Questionable)
- Joe Tippmann – Shoulder (Questionable)
- John Franklin-Myers – Ankle (Questionable)
- Nick Bawden – Knee (Questionable)
- Carter Warren – Hip (Questionable)
- Jason Brownlee – Ankle (Questionable)
- Perrion Winfrey – Foot (Out)
- Max Mitchell – Neck (Questionable)
Miami Dolphins
- Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
- Connor Williams – Knee (Out)
- DeShon Elliott – Concussion/ribs (Questionable)
- Tyreek Hill – Ankle (Questionable)
- Andrew Van Ginkel – Oblique (Questionable)
- Austin Jackson – Oblique (Questionable)
- Liam Eichenberg – Calf (Questionable)
- De’Von Achane – Toe (Questionable)
- Raheem Mostert – Knee (Questionable)
- Xavien Howard – Hip (Questionable)
- Robert Hunt – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Salvon Ahmed – Foot (Out)
- Jaelan Phillips – Achilles (Out)
- Jevon Holland – Knee (Questionable)
- Chris Brooks – Ankle/knee (Questionable)
- Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Out)
- Isaiah Wynn – Quadriceps (Out)
- Jerome Baker – Knee (Out)
- Alexander Johnson – Undisclosed (Out)
- Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
- Terron Armstead – Knee/ankle (Questionable)
Keys To Victory: New York Jets
Quarterback Zach Wilson will try to lead the Jets to a win despite being 9.5-point underdogs on the road. As a team, New York is averaging 15.5 points per game, placing them 26th in the NFL. This season, he has completed 60.8% of his passes, leading an average of 204 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 23rd among QB’s in passing yards and 20th in attempts. Against the Dolphins, the team will look to get receiver Garrett Wilson involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 10.3 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 853. The Jets come in with an average of 4.1 yards per rushing attempt while running the ball an average of 21.3 times per game. In terms of total rushing yardage, they currently rank 30th in the league.
Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins
Led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the team’s 2nd ranked scoring offense will need to be on top of their game to cover the spread as -9.5 point betting favorites. For the season, Tagovailoa is averaging 284 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 1st among quarterbacks. Tagovailoa comes in with a passer rating of 104.8 and is averaging 12.2 yards per completion. Against the Jets, the team will look to get receiver Tyreek Hill involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 10.2 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 1542. The Dolphins hold the 2nd position in the NFL with 144.5 rushing yards per game. This average has come on an average of 27.5 rushing attempts (13th).
Betting Trends
- In their last ten games away from home, the Jets have a straight-up record of 2-8 while going 2-7-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 12 points per game in this stretch.
- When looking at their past ten home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 27 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
- The last five games that New York was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
- In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Dolphins have a straight up record of 3-2, while going 2-3 against the spread.
Prediction
- Miami Dolphins 26 – New York Jets 17
