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New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick and Preview

Taysom Hill

NFC South Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5 | Total Points: 42.5

Coming into this week’s NFC matchup vs the Buccaneers, the Saints have a below .500 record at 7-8. In their last outing, the Saints suffered a 30-22 loss to the Rams. In addition to their 8-point loss, the Saints also lost vs. the spread. They were 4-point underdogs heading into the game. With a set over/under line of 45.5 points, the game concluded with a combined total of 52 points, surpassing the betting line.

As the Buccaneers prepare for this NFC matchup, the team has an overall record of 8-7. This includes riding a current four-game winning streak. Against NFC opponents, they have a record of 6-4. In week 16, the Buccaneers faced off against the Jaguars at home. The game ended in a 30-12 win for the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers not only won straight-up but also covered the spread as 2-point underdogs. In the matchup with Jacksonville, the pre-game over/under line was 43.5. The under hit, as they combined for 42 points.

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers History

When looking back at the head-to-head matchups last season, the Buccaneers and Saints faced off two times, with the Buccaneers going 2-0. The Saints and Buccaneers split their games vs. the spread last season. Together, they combined to average 31.5 points per contest and finished with an over/under mark of 0-2. On offense, the two teams finished with similar production in yardage, with the Saints averaging 303 yards per game compared to the Buccaneers at 305.

The last ten head-to-head matchups between the Saints and Buccaneers have gone in favor of the Saints, putting together a record of 6-4. Going back to the last five head-to-head games between the Buccaneers and Saints, the over/under record in these games is 1-4 with a combined average of 34 points per contest.

Notable Injuries

New Orleans Saints

  • Payton Turner – Toe (Questionable)
  • Malcolm Roach – Knee (Out)
  • Andrew Dowell – Knee (Out)
  • Eno Benjamin – Achilles (Out)
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
  • Ryan Connelly – Knee (Out)
  • Michael Thomas – Knee (Out)
  • Trai Turner – Quadriceps (Out)
  • Marshon Lattimore – Ankle (Out)
  • Ryan Ramczyk – Knee (Questionable)
  • Marcus Maye – Shoulder (Out)
  • Nick Saldiveri – Shoulder (Out)
  • Isaiah Foskey – Quad (Questionable)
  • Kendre Miller – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Cameron Jordan – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Erik McCoy – Foot (Questionable)
  • Jordan Howden – Illness (Questionable)
  • Chris Olave – Ankle (Questionable)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chris Godwin – Knee (Questionable)
  • Shaquil Barrett – Groin (Questionable)
  • Ko Kieft – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Rakim Jarrett – Quad (Questionable)
  • Mike Greene – Calf (Questionable)
  • Russell Gage – Knee (Out)
  • Carlton Davis III – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Ryan Jensen – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: New Orleans Saints

As they enter week 17, the Saints offense ranks 12th in the league, averaging 22.1 points per contest. Against the Buccaneers, Derek Carr will get the start for the Saints. Over 15 games, he has completed 67.4% of his passes and holds the 14th position among quarterbacks in passing yards. His passer rating is currently 93.6. Even though New Orleans is ranked 12th in rushing attempts, they come into the game as a below-average unit in yards. So far, the Saints are averaging 98.7 yards per game on the ground.

Keys To Victory: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

At 21.7 points per contest, the Tampa Bay offense is 15th in the league. So far in this season, Baker Mayfield has recorded 26 touchdowns, which places him 4th among quarterbacks. His total passing yards of 3,598 also rank him 12th in his position. Tampa Bay has managed to find success on offense, even though they are ranked just 29th in rush yards per game.

Betting Trends

  • Through their last three road games, New Orleans has an ATS record of just 0-3. However, their overall record was 0-3 while averaging 18 points per game.
  • In their last five home games, Tampa Bay has averaged 26 points per game while allowing 27. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-3 while going 4-1.
  • Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Saints have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
  • Tampa Bay has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.


  • New Orleans Saints 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
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