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New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Pick and Preview

Juwan Johnson

NFC South Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Saints -1.5 | Total Points: 41.5

Coming into this week’s NFC matchup vs the Falcons, the Saints have a .500 record at 5-5. Week 10 saw the Saints take on the Vikings on the road, resulting in a 27-19 loss. With the 8-point loss to the Vikings, the Saints also took a loss vs. the spread as 3-point favorites. Heading into the game, the over/under line was 40.5 points. As they combined for 46 points, the over hit.

This week, the Falcons will look to snap their current three-game losing streak with a victory over the Saints. Heading into action, the team has a below .500 record of 4-6. Recently, the Falcons played and had a 25-23 loss against the Cardinals. Along with their outright defeat, the Falcons couldn’t cover the spread despite being favored by 2. Totaling 48 points alongside Arizona, the game’s point total exceeded the set over/under line of 43.5.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons History

Last season saw the Saints put together a 2-0 record in the two head-to-head matchups between the teams. Against the spread, the Falcons had the edge in last year’s head-to-head matchups, going 2-0. On the over/under, the team averaged 46 points per game, leading to an OU mark of 1-1. On offense, the two teams finished with similar production in yardage, with the Saints averaging 366.5 yards per game compared to the Falcons at 368.

Across the previous three matchups between Atlanta and New Orleans, the Saints have played well, sitting at 3-0. However, the average point differential between the two teams has been been close, with New Orleans averaging 26 points and Atlanta at 21.

Notable Injuries

New Orleans Saints

  • Andrew Dowell – Knee (Out)
  • Eno Benjamin – Achilles (Out)
  • Payton Turner – Toe (Out)
  • Ryan Connelly – Knee (Out)
  • Marshon Lattimore – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Michael Thomas – Knee (Out)
  • Trai Turner – Quadriceps (Out)
  • Derek Carr – Concussion (Probable)
  • Ryan Ramczyk – Knee (Questionable)
  • James Hurst – Illness (Probable)
  • Shaquan Davis – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Isaiah Foskey – Quadriceps (Questionable)
  • Kendre Miller – Ankle (Questionable)

Atlanta Falcons

  • Barry Wesley – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Younghoe Koo – Back (Questionable)
  • Ikenna Enechukwu – Leg (Out)
  • Jacob Saylors – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Josh Ali – Ankle (Out)
  • LaCale London – Knee (Out)
  • Feleipe Franks – Foot (Out)
  • Matt Hennessy – Knee (Out)
  • Ethan Greenidge – Leg (Out)
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji – Foot (Out)
  • Avery Williams – Knee (Out)
  • Dee Alford – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Troy Andersen – Arm (Out)
  • Mack Hollins – Ankle (Questionable)
  • David Onyemata – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Grady Jarrett – Knee (Out)
  • Taylor Heinicke – Hamstring (Questionable)

Keys To Victory: New Orleans Saints

So far this season, the Saints offense is ranked 14th in the league at 21.4 points per contest. New Orleans currently sits 3rd in passing attempts and has an average of 6.2 yards per attempt (15). They are also ranked 11th in the league with 237.4 passing yards per game. On the ground, the New Orleans offense is among the league leaders in attempts, at 27.7 per game. However, this has not translated into enough success, as they are just the 21st-ranked team in yards.

Keys To Victory: Atlanta Falcons

On offense, the Falcons are ranked 22nd in the league at 18.9 points per game. They will need a strong offensive performance in order to pull out the win as 1.5-point underdogs. For the season, Desmond Ridder is averaging 193 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 24th among quarterbacks. Ridder comes in with a passer rating of 84.1 and is averaging 10.8 yards per completion. Against the Saints, the team will look to get receiver Drake London involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 6.8 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 474. On a per-attempt basis, the Falcons average 4.2 yards while carrying the ball an average of 31.1 times per game. Regarding rushing yardage, they are 7th in the league.

Betting Trends

  • Across the Saint’s last five road games, the team averaged 24 points per game while allowing 18. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
  • Across their three previous home games, Atlanta has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 20 points per game.
  • As the betting underdog, the Falcons have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Atlanta posted a straight-up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
  • In their last three contests as the favorite, New Orleans has a poor record vs the spread going 1-2. But, they still put together a straight-up mark of 2-1.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Pick

  • New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 18
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