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New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Pick and Preview

Tua Tagovailoa

AFC East Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Dolphins -9.5 | Total Points: 47

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Dolphins, the Patriots have a below .500 record at 2-5. In week 7, the Patriots had the Bills at home. New England finished the game with a 29-25 win. In addition to winning the game, the Patriots managed to cover the spread as 7.5-point underdogs. With a combined score of 54 points, the game surpassed the pre-game over/under line of 41.

Heading into the game, the Dolphins are the 2nd ranked team in the AFC with a record of 5-2. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 3-1. The Dolphins are coming off a 31-17 loss to the Eagles. In addition to their 14-point loss, the Dolphins also lost vs. the spread. They were 3-point underdogs heading into the game. In their most recent game, the over/under line was 52 points. By combining for 48 points, the under hit.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins History

In the two head-to-head matchups last season, the Patriots and Dolphins each picked up one win apiece. Against the spread, the Dolphins had the edge in last year’s head-to-head matchups, going 2-0. On the over/under, the teams averaged 35.5 points per game, leading to an OU mark of 1-1. The Dolphins had the edge in terms of offensive yards last season, averaging 320 yards of offense compared to the Patriots at 260.

The last ten head-to-head matchups between the Dolphins and Patriots have gone in favor of the Dolphins, putting together a record of 7-3. The over/under record in the five most recent head-to-head games between the Patriots and Dolphins is 2-3, with an average of 40 points per game. The last three times the Patriots have been on the road vs. the Dolphins, the over/under record is 2-3.

Notable Injuries

New England Patriots

  • Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
  • Keion White – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Deatrich Wise Jr. – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Davon Godchaux – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Shaun Wade – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Hunter Henry – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Ty Montgomery II – Knee (Questionable)
  • Trent Brown – Ankle/knee (Questionable)
  • Calvin Anderson – Illness (Questionable)
  • Christian Barmore – Knee (Questionable)
  • Jonathan Jones – Knee (Questionable)
  • Vederian Lowe – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Cole Strange – Knee (Questionable)
  • Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Out)
  • Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
  • Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
  • Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
  • Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
  • Riley Reiff – Knee (Out)
  • Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
  • Josh Uche – Ankle/toe (Questionable)
  • Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)

Miami Dolphins

  • Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
  • Jevon Holland – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Alec Ingold – Foot (Questionable)
  • Tyreek Hill – Hip (Questionable)
  • Nik Needham – Achilles (Questionable)
  • Jaylen Waddle – Back (Questionable)
  • Kader Kohou – Neck (Questionable)
  • Cam Smith – Foot (Questionable)
  • Raheem Mostert – Ankle (Questionable)
  • De’Von Achane – Knee (Out)
  • Chris Brooks – Ankle/knee (Out)
  • Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Out)
  • Terron Armstead – Knee (Out)
  • Xavien Howard – Groin (Questionable)
  • Jalen Ramsey – Knee (Questionable)
  • River Cracraft – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Connor Williams – Groin (Questionable)
  • Isaiah Wynn – Quadriceps (Out)

Keys To Victory: New England Patriots

The New England offense hasn’t look good so far this season, with an average of only 14.4 points per contest. This has the Patriots sitting 28th in the NFL. In the passing game, the Patriots are averaging 208.9 passing yards per game, which is 21st in the league. So far, 57.5% of their first downs have come through the passing game. A major reason for the team’s lack of offense is their inability to generate production with the rushing attack. Heading into today’s game, the team’s below-average number of rush attempts has turned into an average of just 85.4 rushing yards per game.

Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will try to lead the Dolphins to a win despite being 9.5-point underdogs on the road. As a team, Miami is averaging 34.3 points per game, placing them 1st in the NFL. For the season, Tagovailoa is averaging 298 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 1st among quarterbacks. Tagovailoa comes in with a passer rating of 110.4 and is averaging 12.8 yards per completion. Tyreek Hill has been targeted 74 times this season and has caught 53 passes this season. He comes into the game with a total of 902 receiving yards. The Dolphins hold the 1st position in the NFL with 162.3 rushing yards per game. This average has come on an average 25.7 rushing attempts (18th).

Betting Trends

  • In their last ten games away from home, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 5-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 21 points per game in these contests.
  • Across their ten previous home games, Miami has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 24 points per game.
  • Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.
  • Miami has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.


  • Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 20
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