After a week off, thanks to the All-Star break, we’re back and looking to continue on from our 3-1 outing last time with some exciting matchups tonight. With 7 of the eight best-scoring teams this year involved, including two matchups between teams in that 8, expect plenty of action for us to capitalize on this evening.
Jaylen Brown over 6.5 rebounds (-106)
We start off with the Boston Celtics (42-17) traveling to Indiana to face the Pacers (26-34) who have been struggling for form recently with only 3 wins in their last 19 games. The Celtics on the other hand have only lost 2 of their last 9 games and sit top of the Eastern Conference and start as strong -8.5 favorites. Jaylen Brown returned wearing a face mask in the All-Star game after missing the previous 4 with injury and was excellent, putting up 35 points and 14 rebounds in just 25 minutes. Before he left the game versus Philadelphia, Brown hit his rebound over in 6 of his last 8 matchups and now faces a Pacers team who ranks 21st in defensive rebounds allowed per game (33.6). With the Celtics ranking 4th in points scored per game (117.9) & 3rd in defensive rebounds per game (35.6), expect them to be very active around the Pacers’ net. Our Fantasy Projection tool has him right at his line, with a 6.52 projection.
Kyrie Irving over 5.5 assists (-130)
The Dallas Mavericks (31-29) host the San Antonio Spurs (14-45) tonight in a must-win game for the home team as they continue to hold on to 6th spot in the Western Conference. The Mavs are -14 favorites against a Spurs team on a 14-game losing streak, so there is definite blowout potential for this one, which is why I’ve pivoted toward assists rather than points. Kyrie Irving has had a solid start to life in Dallas and has hit his over in 3 of his first 4 games, having 5 in his first match. In his last 10, he’s averaging 7.2 assists per game and comes up against a Spurs team ranking 29th in assists allowed per game (26.2) and 30th in points against per game (122.6). The hope this evening is the game can stay competitive enough, so the main starters aren’t pulled too soon before the end, and our projection tool has Irving at 5.72 assists tonight.
Anthony Davis over 11.5 rebounds (-118)
The LA Lakers (27-32) host the Golden State Warriors (29-29) for their second meeting this month as the Lakers attempt to salvage their season and push for a late play-in spot, whilst the Warriors continue to miss Steph Curry, but are still close to Dallas and that 6th spot in the Western Conference. Anthony Davis leads the Lakers in total rebounds (431) having played just 35 games this season as he averages 12.3 per game, and 12.9 in his last 10 games. Golden State ranks 25th in total rebounds allowed per game (54.1) and in their previous meeting, Davis finished the match with 16 total, and has actually had 14+ in 5 of his last 7. He only recorded 10 in his last matchup against the Pelicans, and I think that’s why his line is slightly lower than usual. We have him projected at 12.92 rebounds for this one.
Kelly Olynyk over 18.5 points and rebounds (-110)
In another clash of high-scoring teams this season, the Utah Jazz (29-31) welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder (28-29) as both sides battle for the remaining play-in spots, which should be close as the books have this game as a straight pick’em. One surprise and consistent pick for me in recent weeks has been Kelly Olynyk for the Jazz. Since his return from injury Olynyk has been a regular starter and has also benefitted from other starters missing, and will continue this trend as Collin Sexton misses out again tonight. Olynyk has been consistently hitting double digits in points and has hit this total over in 4 of his last 5 games, with the last game Sexton missed against the Hawks, Olynyk had 10 rebounds. Oklahoma rank 20th in points allowed per game (116.2) and 29th in total rebounds allowed (54.7), so I anticipate Olynyk to continue his run of form and longer minutes tonight and look to build on his 28 point + 14 rebounds game last week against Memphis. Again our projection has it close, but his total for tonight sits at 18.71.
Wendell Carter Jr over 1.5 3-pointers made (+128)
The final pick tonight is a slightly more out-there one, but after missing a week let’s shoot an extra shot. Orlando Magic (24-35) host the even less impressive Detroit Pistons (15-44) with the Magic starting at -7 favorites in a game that won’t be breaking any viewership records this evening. The Magic have struggled for points in many games this season, as they rank 28th in total points per game (110.9) and their offensive players have lacked consistency throughout the year. Wendell Carter Jr though will look to benefit from a poor Pistons defense, who rank 29th in points allowed per game (119.9). In his last 6 games, Carter Jr has hit this over in 5 of them and will seek to make it 6 in 7 against a Pistons team who allow 33.7 3’s attempts per game against (17th).
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.