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Monday Night Football Week 6 Prop Bets

Justin Herbert

LA Chargers at Denver Broncos

Russell Wilson will be introduced to this divisional battle for the first time as the Denver Broncos take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.  Both quarterbacks are currently playing through some injuries, Wilson has a shoulder injury and Hebert suffered a rib injury against the Chiefs in week 2.

The Broncos’ offense undeniably qualifies as one of the most disappointing units across the league relative to preseason expectations. Denver’s blockbuster acquisition of Wilson this offseason has led to an average of 15.0 points and 5.4 yards per play. The Broncos are also averaging only 208 passing yards per game over the last three contests, with Wilson’s recently revealed injury clearly playing a part.

The Chargers defense comes in having allowed 259.0 passing yards per game over L.A.’s first two home contests, along with 10.4 yards per completion. However, Los Angeles has also accrued six interceptions and 10 sacks over the first five games, so Wilson, who’s already taken 16 sacks, could certainly find himself under duress at times.

If we had to pick a side here, we would lean toward the Broncos as 4.5-point underdogs.  Instead, let’s dive into the prop market and find which props have value for this divisional showdown.

  • Betting Line: Chargers -4.5/Broncos +4.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Against the spread: Chargers are 3-2 this season. Broncos are 1-4 this season.

Prop: Justin Herbert longest passing completion UNDER 36.5 (-110)

The Chargers offense has had success in recent games, despite the absence of WR Keenan Allen, but they’re running into a good Denver defense tonight. The fact they were able to run the ball so well against the Browns last week may fool the Chargers into thinking they can do the same here, but I wouldn’t bet on it as Cleveland is last in DVOA when it comes to run defense and the Chargers’ ground game was virtually non-existent (64.5 YPG) the first four games.

But for this prop we’re going to focus in on Justin Herbert. I don’t see the Chargers’ QB completing a pass for 37+ yards in this game. He’s likely to be without Allen again. Denver’s top cover corner Patrick Surtain should do an excellent job blanketing Mike Williams. Herbert is also likely to face more pressure than he’s seen in recent weeks as the Broncos rank #4 in the league in sack rate. Denver’s offense may be problematic, but the defense is not, and I don’t see them giving up a “big play” to Herbert tonight. Bet the Under on his longest completion prop.

Prop: Mike Williams UNDER 68.5 receiving yards (-110)

Mike Williams is the definition of “Boom or Bust” as a wide receiver.  He has been a huge target for his quarterback this season, especially with Keenan Allen out.  This problem is, this is a terrible matchup for the star wide receiver. Patrick Surtain, the Broncos number 1 cornerback has found himself covering Williams plenty since he was drafted.  Last season Williams had 4 catches for 39 yards and 3 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown in the two games against the Broncos.  Keenan Allen was active in both of those games.  Tonight, Allen will not be out there, which means the Broncos can put even more attention on Williams.  I think the Chargers will try and create a presence with their run game, and because of that this number is a little to high for Mike Williams.  Give me the under 68.5 receiving yards.

Prop: Russel Wilson OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-105)

Wilson is looking downfield and not seeing open receivers. He ranks 26th in time to throw and seemingly holds the ball forever. Because of this, he has been taking off more often and has topped his rushing total in three straight weeks. His rushing total closed at 13.5 yards last week, but as a bigger underdog Monday, the total has risen to 16.5. Although I think the three-yard move seems like quite a lot, this is another good matchup to bet the Over

BONUS PICK: Gerald Everett Any Time Touchdown

As we noted with our Mike Williams UNDER receiving yards play, we feel the WR’s for the chargers will have a hard time tonight. Denver has allowed just one touchdown to opposing wide receivers this season.  Where the Broncos have been vulnerable this year is the Tight End position. A position that has scored twice against them so far.  Everett has 2 touchdowns this season and Justin Herbert continues to look his way throughout the game.

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