Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Saints at Bucs

Chris Godwin

Monday Night Football Prop Bets

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) host the New Orleans Saints (4-8) in what should be a great Monday Night Football game between the NFC South rivals. The game is expected to be low scoring, with the total being set at only 40.5.  The Buccaneers are favored by 3.5 in this game and sit on top of the NFC South, but they do not have a winning record and are averaging only 18.2 points per game.  The spread for this game has reduced considerably despite only a one-win advantage for the host Buccaneers and both teams having looked poor on offense in Week 12.

Tampa Bay originally opened as a 6.5-point favorite when the line was first released in the middle of last week, but that number began to shrink shortly after Week 12 results. The line reached as low as 3.5 points last Monday, and it’s bumped back up to 4 in most places as of this morning.  It should be a tight game; the Saints have been a tough team for the Buccaneers ever since Brady arrived. We aren’t here to pick the game though, let’s dive into some of those player props that everyone is here for.

Chris Godwin Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

It’s tough not to look at all the Mike Evans talk this week after a nine-target game where he hauled in just two and not think of hitting his Over 60.5 receiving yard prop. I’m not taking the bait, though, as Brady has been forcing the ball to Evans, but for some reason, there is a disconnect between the two.

Chris Godwin, who has a receiving total seven yards longer than Evans, is the better bet. He has a 30% target share over the last two games and a 27% target share since Week 7. He’s seen double-digit targets in five of his last six games and hasn’t been held to fewer than six catches since Week 1. Only Davante Adams has seen more targets than Godwin since Week 6, and his receiving total is 17 yards longer than Godwin’s.

The Saints allow over 150 yards to opposing receivers who rank in the bottom and give up most of those yards to slot receivers.  In a game where I don’t expect many overs, I’ll take my chances on Godwin to go over 67.5 receiving yards.

Ryan Succop Kicking Points Over 7.5 (-120)

This is a different type of bet, not the most popular player prop, but the goal is to win, and I have a lot of confidence in this bet.  The Bucs are 22nd in Red Zone DVOA and are scoring on only half of their tries inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

That’s led to plenty of field goal attempts for Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop, who enters Week 13 making 23 of his 26 field goal attempts on the year — tied for fourth most FGs kicked in the league.

As I mentioned earlier, the Saints have done a great job slowing down Tom Brady since he arrived in Tampa.  The Buccaneers got the last laugh as they beat New Orleans 20-10 back in week 2, with eight of those points coming from Succop’s foot.

I believe this is going to be a game where the Bucs can move the ball well until they reach the red zone.  Drives will stall out and they will have to settle for field goals.  Succop’s kicking point total is set at 7.5 and he’s topped his points prop in three of his last four home games.

Rashid Shaheed Over 13.5 receiving yards (-113)

Shaheed isn’t a cornerstone of this Saints offense by any means, but he does provide a spark for this time.  With Andy Dalton under center, Shaheed has gone well over this total in three of the last five games.  He is a dynamic receiver that can turn the jets on at any time, and I believe Vegas hasn’t caught up to this number yet.  As Shaheed has gone for 53, 38, and 53 yards in three of the last 5 games, I expect him to continue that tonight.

Bonus Pick: Julio Jones Anytime Touchdown (+350)

Julio Jones is finally starting to string together some healthy games, something he hasn’t been able to do in a while.  Jones has a ton of experience playing against this Saints team, as he has been in the NFC South for basically his entire career.  Saints CB Marshon Lattimore will have his hands full guarding Mike Evans, this will open some opportunities for Julio, especially in the red zone.  At +350, look for Julio to find paydirt on Monday Night Football.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

To Top