Prop Bets

Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Patriots vs. Cardinals

Hunter Henry

The New England Patriots are heading out west to take on the Arizona Cardinals in a game that the Patriots must win to keep pace in the playoff picture.  At this point, the Cardinals are basically out of playoff contention, so they will be looking to play spoiler.  The good news for Cardinals fans is that for the first time all season they will have their full cast of weapons out on the field.

The Patriots come in off a 24-10 loss to the Bills on Thursday night in Week 13, New England’s second straight defeat. The Cardinals were off in Week 13 after suffering a razor-thin 25-24 loss to the Chargers in Week 12.

The spread for this game hasn’t experienced much movement, with the fact the Cards couldn’t move the needle in either direction due to being off Week 13 likely playing a role. The Patriots opened as 1.5-point road favorites at the beginning of the week, and it’s basically been right around that number ever since.  Vegas believes this is a coin-flip game which makes sense based on how inconsistent both teams have been this season.  The good news for us is we don’t have to worry about the spread, we make our money in the prop market.  Let’s dive into our favorite prop bets for this interconference matchup.

James Connor Under 83.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115)

There is a good amount of money coming in on James Connor to go under his rushing prop, which makes sense.  I wanted to go a little safer and combine his rushing and receiving.  We all know the best part of this Patriot team is their defense, and I believe they will make it a priority to shut down Connor.  Connor has gone under this number in 7 out of 9 games, and this feels like a great buy-high spot after he crushed a bottom-run team in the Chargers the last time we saw him on the field.

The Patriots are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry over the last 3 weeks, and they run the second-highest man-to-man coverage which hurts the running back’s upside in check downplays.  Not to mention, New England plays at a very slow pace which should limit the number of offensive possessions the Cardinals get.  I like the Patriots to stifle James Connor and the Cardinal’s run game tonight.

Hunter Henry Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Christmas comes early for Hunter Henry and the Patriot’s Tight End group as they get to face one of the worst teams against opposing tight ends in the league.  The Cardinals rank 27th on defense per DVOA and 25th against the pass. No team has allowed more production to tight ends, as that position group has torched Arizona for an average of 73 yards per contest.

Henry has had an up-and-down season so far, but he has seen five targets in back-to-back weeks. He’s eclipsed 30.5 receiving yards in four of his past eight games, but let’s not forget the connection he and Jones forged last year.

Henry put up at least 32 receiving yards 10 times in 2022, and with Meyers out of the lineup, look for him to become one of Jones’ most trusted targets.

Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This play is connected to our James Connor Prop earlier in the article.  As I said above, I believe the Cardinals will have a hard time creating a run game tonight.  This will lead to Kyler dropping back more often than usual which will lead to him scrambling around when the pocket closes.  We know these Patriots’ D-lineman are aggressive and good at getting to the QB, Kyler will have to use his legs to escape early and often.  I think just based on the necessity to make plays and get something going, Kyler will find himself over 34.5 rushing yards.

Bonus Play: Hunter Henry Touchdown (+300)

Okay, as we mentioned above the Cardinals are terrible against opposing Tight Ends.  So obviously we must sprinkle on Hunter Henry to score a touchdown, especially when they are giving us these kinds of odds.  With Myers being out, I think the Patriots are going to make Henry a big part of their game plan tonight.  I expect Henry will get a couple of red zone targets tonight and at least one of them will connect and cash us a +300-prop play.


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