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Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Bengals at Browns

Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

The battle of Ohio is up for grabs tonight as the Cincinnati Bengals head to Cleveland to take on a desperate Browns team.  You won’t have a hard time finding a storyline that intrigues you for this game. The Bengals have revenge on their minds as the Browns beat them both times last year.  How do the Bengals look without Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup?  Do they move to a more run-heavy attack or continue airing it out? The Browns are 2-5, if they lose this game their season is essentially over.  The Bengals have had trouble in the past in this type of game.  They have lost their last 12 primetime road games, and the raucous dawg pound will look to make that 13.  The Bengals are favored by 3.5 and the over/under is around 45.5.

Let’s dive into some of our favorite prop bets for tonight.

Hayden Hurst over 3.5 receptions (-110)

Hurst has had a very solid season so far in Cincinnati’s offense, with 29 catches on 39 targets (5.7 per game) in his first season with the Bengals. His yards per reception is just 7.8, but that’s more about the talent around him.  Now Ja’Marr Chase goes out and in comes more targets for guys like Hayden Hurst.

Many people believe that Chase’s injury will open things up for guys like Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but I believe Hurst could be the biggest beneficiary from Chase’s absence.  Hurst has gone over this line four times in seven games this season, and the Bengals just lost their No. 1 receiver.

Cleveland is 12th in DVOA against tight ends this season, so this matchup doesn’t move the needle either way. It’s the circumstances that give Hurst value to reach four catches for the fifth time in eight games.

Joe Mixon over 65.5 rushing yards (-110)

Last week, the Ravens ran the ball 70% of the time vs. this Cleveland defense, and although the quality wasn’t excellent, Baltimore moved the sticks and dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes.

Zac Taylor has loved to run Joe Mixon to poor results all year, and even last week, with Joe Burrow throwing for over 450 yards, Mixon still had 17 carries.

The running back currently sits eighth in football in carries per game at 17.29. With Ja’Marr Chase out and lineman La’el Collins possibly out, it would make sense for Taylor to stay committed to the run vs. a dangerous Cleveland pass rush.

Cleveland’s rush defense ranks dead last in EPA/rush, and with Burrow getting 23 first downs per game (6th) over the last three weeks, there will be plenty of 1st and 10s that Taylor can run Mixon up the middle for three or four yards.

This is a tough divisional matchup on the road against a rowdy crowd, the best way to quiet that crowd is run the ball right down the field against a very porous defense.  Give me Mr. Mixon to go over 65.5 rushing yards.

Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-120)

There’s no secret that the Browns will try and move the ball on the ground as they run the ninth-highest run-play percentage. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have been a great backfield in Cleveland over the last few years.

When it comes to the red zone, they use Chubb’s physical force as much as possible, as he takes 61.5% of carries inside the five. If they’re on the cusp of scoring, they’re giving it to Chubb.

I like a lot of Chubb’s props tonight, but I felt like the Anytime Touchdown was the safest one to go with.  His rushing prop is sitting at 81.5 right now and I do believe he will go over that as well.  So that is something to look at, but I think with the way the Browns like to run the ball near the goal line, it makes sense to hammer Nick Chubb to score a TD.

Tyler Boyd over 23.5 yards longest reception (-115)

With Ja’Marr Chase out, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins will have larger target shares Monday, but it’s the slot receiver Boyd who I’m targeting to go Over his longest reception.

Boyd has been thriving over the last two weeks catching 14 of his 15 targets for 222 yards and a score. His target share isn’t off the charts at 14.2%, but the slot receiver’s aDOT (average depth of target) of 10.05 is the longest of the three starting receivers.

His yards after the catch per reception were also the best of the trio. In short, Boyd has been turning his moderate volume into long gains, and that’s a trend I expect to continue Monday night.

Despite 18 fewer catches than Chase, Boyd is tied for the team-high with eight grabs of 20 yards or longer, and the slot receiver has at least one 20-plus yard catch in five of his seven games to date.

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