Prop Bets

Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Bears at Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson

Monday Night Football Prop Bets

On paper, this isn’t a pretty Monday Night matchup, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t any betting value out there.  That’s the beauty of prop betting, you can find a matchup like this and exploit it in numerous ways.  Tonight, we are looking at the New England Patriots being 8.5-point favorites at home with a very low total of 40.5.  It is usually rare to see a big spread and a low total like this, but the books are telling you they believe New England should run away with this one.  I can’t blame them, there are a myriad of ways for the Patriots to win this game.

Okay, enough with all of that, let’s look at the game within the game. Justin Fields and the Bears make it to prime-time for the second straight week as they take on a much-improved defense of the New England Patriots.  Let’s look into our first prop of the night:

David Montgomery Over 11.5 receiving yards (-108)

With Fields being the least accurate passer with a clean pocket (62.4%) and only completing 34% of his passes in the red zone, Matt Eberflus will have to make things even easier for his quarterback vs. a very good New England defense. That could mean getting his running backs involved in the passing game.  David Montgomery only saw one target in last week’s game but took it for 12 yards. He has caught all five of his targets over his last two games and out-snapped Khalil Herbert 56-16 last week.  Game script alone is enough to bet this, but snaps and opportunity turn it into a must-bet. Outside of the Week 3 game that Montgomery left with an injury, he’s topped this total in every other contest.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 61.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Pats have been leaning on Stevenson since Damien Harris’ injury, and he has stepped up, becoming the team leader in rushing yards. Stevenson scored twice in the Patriots’ most recent game before the bye week, and while Harris is back and healthy, Stevenson has more than proved his worth. Even if his snap count decreases somewhat, I think that the Patriots will still look to Stevenson early and often!  Especially since they are facing a Bears defense that is very generous against the run.

Justin Fields Over 0.5 interceptions (-175)

Now I know the NFL odds on this one isn’t as lucrative as the others, but this is a prop I can’t pass up.  Fields, tantalizing athleticism aside, has a knack for throwing interceptions. In some ways, it’s hard to blame the guy.  The Chicago Bears are fairly weak on the offensive side of the ball, and Fields is doing all he can do to keep them competitive. He’s trying to fit the ball into tight windows, throwing off-balance and on the move, and just trying to make something happen. Excuses aside, there’s just not a good outlook for him when he takes the field Monday night.  Fields has thrown five interceptions in six games. The Patriot’s defense is coming into Week Seven with six picks in six games, including four in the last three games.  Fourth-round rookie Jack Jones has been a revelation, with two interceptions himself. Look for an easy one interception from Fields, and, wouldn’t be surprised if it came early.

Justin Fields Rushing Attempts Over 7.5 (-115)

Fields has gone under this just once on the season and it was when he had 7 carries vs. the Giants.  The Bear’s offensive line is brutal and the Patriots figure to get plenty of pressure on Fields which will cause him to leave the pocket. Lamar Jackson had 11 carries vs. New England earlier this season as the most mobile QB they had faced. Rain in the forecast too, except the Bears to rely on Field’s legs all night.

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