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Monday Night Football Prop Bets: 49ers at Cardinals

George Kittle

The Cardinals and 49ers meet for the first time this season on Monday night in Mexico City.  This prime-time NFC West showdown has storylines and implications across the board.  Arizona can begin to claw its way back into the playoff picture with a victory while San Francisco goes for its third consecutive win and looks to gain ground on the division-leading Seahawks, who are on a bye this week.

This game will mark the first of the two meetings between the teams this season. The Cardinals swept the 2021 series with a 17-10 home win and a 31-17 road victory.

Both teams come into this matchup off a win, but the Cardinals have injury concerns regarding their two most important players.  It does look like Deandre Hopkins will play, but Kyler Murray will miss his second consecutive game.

The 49ers opened as 5.5-point favorites in this neutral-field contest, and although San Francisco barely squeaked by a short-handed Chargers squad in Week 10 while the Cards pulled off a win, the number was quickly bet up to 7.5 following Sunday’s outcomes. That figure has only continued climbing, sitting at 8 points as of early Friday afternoon.

A talented group of skill position players between these two teams makes the prop bet market especially intriguing. So, let’s dive into my favorite props for tonight.

JIMMY G OVER 239.5 PASSING YARDS (-111)

Garoppolo is averaging 253.9 passing yards per start this season, which factors out the 154-yard effort off the bench in Week 2 against the Seahawks following the season-ending ankle injury suffered by Trey Lance.

He’s had at least 240 passing yards in four of his last five games, and it would have been five of his last six if he got one more yard through the air against the Rams in a Week 4 win.

Jimmy G takes on a porous Cardinals defense that ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed per game (247.1).  Jimmy G has had success in the past against this Cardinal’s defense, in five-lifetime meetings, Garoppolo has averaged 318 yards per game against the Cardinals. In his only game against this opponent last season, Jimmy G went for 326 yards on 28-of-40 passing.

I see Jimmy G getting over 239.5 passing yards tonight.

George Kittle Over 3.5 receptions (-135)

Arizona has struggled mightily against tight ends this season. The Cardinals are allowing 73.6 ypg and more than 8 pass attempts per opposing TEs, which is good for 31st in DVOA. This is the perfect game for Kittle to get involved in the passing game following 2 weeks of lying dormant. Historically, the Cards have been a team Kittle has had success against. He has also hit this line in 6 straight games against the Cardinals. Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee (twice), Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant (twice), and Juwan Johnson have all hit this line against the Cardinals. Kittle will likely be another name on that list.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Aiyuk has gone over this mark in his last five games, and he’s cleared it by 25-plus yards in each of his last four. This jump in production has coincided with a higher target share — he’s had six or more targets in each of his last four games after only seeing that many passes come his way twice over his first five. The connection between him and Jimmy Garoppolo has taken off in recent weeks and Arizona, which has a bottom-10 pass defense, is also down Byron Murphy Jr., one of its top defensive backs. This should be another big outing for Aiyuk.

BONUS PICK: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+500)

This is strictly a value play.  With Zach Ertz going on IR, rookie Trey McBride steps into the starting TE role.  We obviously don’t know how involved McBride will be in the game plan so this is a bit of a risky play, but with him being TE1, the opportunities to find paydirt will be there for the young TE.

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