Prop Bets

Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Commanders at Eagles

AJ Brown

Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Two NFC East rivals clash when the Washington Commanders head to Philadelphia to take on the undefeated Eagles on Monday Night Football.  The Philadelphia Eagles enter their Week 10 prime-time matchup with the Washington Commanders as a double-digit favorite for the third straight week.  The game script will be interesting, and most believe it will lead to the Commanders throwing the ball, but as we saw last week with Houston, teams can run against the Eagles and have success.

The game will mark the 176th meeting in a series the Commanders lead by an 88-82-5 margin.  The most recent game between the teams came in Week 3 of this season when Philadelphia recorded a 24-8 win over Washington at FedEx Field. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in the victory, and Philadelphia’s defense managed to sack Commander’s signal-caller Carson Wentz on nine occasions.

The Commanders saw a three-game winning streak narrowly snapped by the Vikings in Week 9 in the form of a 20-17 defeat. Philadelphia, meanwhile, moved their record to 8-0 with a 29-17 road win against the Texans.

Alright, we have set the stage; now let’s dive into some of our favorite props for this game.

AJ Brown over 26.5 yards longest completion (-114)

Through eight games, A.J. Brown has a grab of at least 31 yards in five games. He’s also failed to haul in a 22-yard catch or longer just once this season and brought in a 38-yard grab vs. this same defense in Week 3. Even in the two games that the Eagles have been a heavy double-digit favorite, he’s had a 30-yard grab.

His longest reception is currently sitting at 26.5 yards which is lengthy. Still, with an air yards/reception and yards after catch/reception higher than Tyreek Hill on the season, Brown has been easily getting downfield and making catches.

The Eagles receiver should run most of his routes against Kendall Fuller, who has allowed a 117.9 passer rating when opposing quarterbacks attack him.  That number has Jalen Hurts and A.J Brown jumping at the bit. Brown also has the luxury of having one of the most-accurate deep-ball passers getting him the ball. Jalen Hurts is completing 52.4% on deep balls this season, which ranks 5th best in the league.

In that Week 3 meeting, Hurts had completions of 23, 31, 38, 40, 44, and 45 yards — making up 27% of all his completions. With Hurts’ longest completion at 38.5 yards, I’m more confident taking Brown at 26.5 yards.

Brian Robinson Over 34.5 rushing yards (-110)

It’s hard to criticize a team that hasn’t lost a game at this point in the season, but there are some flaws on this Eagles team.  The inability to stop the run comes to mind when discussing those flaws.  We saw this last Thursday night when Dameon Pierce ran the ball 37 times for 139 yards in a Houston loss.  Over the last three games, Washington has been one of the most run-heavy teams in football with a 50% run rate which is up substantially from its 40% run rate on the season. Playing close games is obviously a big reason for this, but Washington knows it isn’t going to win a ball game if quarterback Taylor Heinicke has to pass 30 times.

Rookie running back Brian Robinson has out-carried and out-rushed Antonio Gibson for five straight weeks. With J.D. McKissic likely out again, the third-round runner should get at least half of the carries Monday night.

Robinson’s averaging 44 yards rushing yards per game on the season across five games.  I might be on an island with this play because many believe the game script will dictate Washington go away from the run.  It’s the NFL and prime-time division matchups tend to be close; I will roll the dice on Brian Robinson going over this number and the Commanders keeping this game close.

Dallas Goedert under 54.5 receiving yards (-155)

While Washington’s defense has been bad against opposing WRs, it has been excellent against opposing TEs. The Commanders allow 3.67 receptions for 33.0 yards to opposing TEs per game – these marks rank 6th and 3rd best in the NFL, respectively.

Dallas Goedert is having a great year for the Eagles and went over 100 receiving yards in their last game. Despite this, I don’t expect him to maintain this production level against Washington. A big reason for this is the comparative weakness of the Commanders’ defense against WRs. The Eagles are great at attacking the biggest weakness of their opponents – I think they’ll focus their passing game around their WRs.

If the Eagles get up big, they likely won’t throw the ball too often. I think the throws they make will be aimed at attacking Washington’s weak secondary rather than the intermediate part of the field, where Goedert does his best work.

BONUS PLAY: DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown (+200):

Smith torched the Washington Commanders earlier this year to eight receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown.  Washington has allowed nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season, and as we mentioned above, they do a phenomenal job locking down the tight end position.  At +200 odds there is way too much value to pass up on Mr. Smith to get into the endzone.

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