MLB Player Props 6/28
Another 2-1 night to keep the record positive was a blessing. Ryne Nelson got rocked early and surrendered 3 earned runs in the second inning, while Gavin Stone pitched a complete game shutout with 7 strikeouts. Unfortunately, Jose Ramirez had a donut for the day and couldn’t even reach base, which he followed up the next day with 2 hits. Sometimes you need luck in the betting world and that was just an unlucky beat on a good read.
We have a full slate to work with today, as every team in MLB is playing. With so many loaded options, you have to dissect the absolute best three prop bets. Here are the top three props for you today.
Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-175)
The Cristopher Sanchez under 2.5 earned runs prop might be the new favorite prop of the season. I played this prop last Monday against a San Diego Padres team that struggles against left-handed pitchers. That prop turned green with ease. So why not run it back with an even better matchup?
The Miami Marlins are arguably the worst team versus lefties. They are the fifth worst in AVG but fall dead last in SLG and OPS against lefties. Furthermore, the Marlins struggle on the road. They have the worst SLG and OPS on the road as well. Sanchez has the perfect matchup for this under to hit.
Sanchez has been phenomenal this season. He has the third-best ERA in the National League as of today. Sanchez at home against this type of team is the perfect storm to take this under. I expect this line to get bumped down to 1.5 earned runs allowed, so take this as fast as possible.
Logan Gilbert 5+ Hits Allowed (-175)
Heading into the season, everyone expected the AL West to be between the defending champion Texas Rangers and perennial powerhouse Houston Astros. However, the Seattle Mariners are in first place in the division. The reason for that is their pitching staff. One of the key members in that rotation is Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert is having a stellar season, as he is posting a 2.71 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, which is the second-best in all of baseball. In the month of June, he has been even more dominant with a 1.21 ERA and back-to-back 8 shutout innings performances. Despite all of that success, I want to fade Gilbert tonight.
The one team to bring it to Gilbert was the Minnesota Twins, whom he faces tonight. The Twins put up 9 hits and 8 runs on Gilbert, as he only lasted 4 innings. Since then, the Twins have gotten hotter at the plate. In the last 15 days, the Twins are batting .309, which is the best in baseball in that timeframe. For the entire season thus far, they are batting .263 against right-handed pitchers, which is 3rd-best in all of baseball.
The Twins have the numbers to back up their ability to rock Gilbert for a second time. I was scared of taking the over 5.5 hits allowed, so I went the conservative route and took 5+.
Logan Webb Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-110)
I understand people who might be hesitant to take walks allowed props. They can be very volatile regardless of if the pitcher had a good or bad start. However, this Logan Webb prop kept staring at me, and for good reason. Webb is not someone who would you deem as wild on the mound. He is someone who demonstrates a good deal of poise and control. There are times, though, when he can walk some batters, depending on the team. The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of those teams.
In his last five starts against the Dodgers, Webb has allowed more than 1 walk in four of them. The Dodgers currently rank as the second-best team in BB% as of today. Their lineup is so deadly, even without Mookie Betts. They are dangerous and can generate walks because of it. Freddie Freeman has been walked 47 times, while Shohei Ohtani has been walked 42 times.
I am not saying Webb can’t pitch a good game and go past six innings. He might have one of his better performances of the season. I am going off what history says and what the matchup entails. The Dodgers work walks at a great rate and any pitcher can see that. Webb knows that maybe it is better to walk a tough batter for a more favorable matchup. This prop is scary, but I had to put it in the top three.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
