Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons Pick and Preview

Posted on November 3, 2023

NFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Falcons -3.5 | Total Points: 37

Coming into this week 9 NFC matchup, the Vikings are in the middle of a three-game winning streak, helping them get back to .500 (4-4). Taking a look at their latest game, the Vikings defeated the Packers by a score of 24-10. As 1-point favorites against the Packers, the Vikings picked up an ATS win. The under hit in the Vikings’ most recent game, where the teams’ combined total was 34 points. The line prior to the game stood at 41.5.

Coming into this week’s NFC matchup vs the Vikings, the Falcons have a .500 record at 4-4. In the previous game, the Falcons lost by a score of 28-23 against the Titans. In addition to losing straight-up, the Falcons also lost vs. the spread as 2-point favorites. With an over/under line of 35 points, the game saw a total of 51 points, going over the set line.

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons History

Over their previous five games against the Falcons, the Vikings have put together a record of 4-1. Across the last three head-to-head matchups between the Vikings and Falcons, the teams have averaged 41 points per game with an over/under record of 1-2. The last three times they have faced off with the Falcons as the home team, the OU record is 2-1.

When looking at their past five road matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 4-0-1 while averaging 24 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
Through their last three home games, Atlanta has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 15 points per game.
As the betting underdog, the Vikings have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Minnesota posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Falcons have gone 3-7 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 7-3.

Notable Injuries

Minnesota Vikings

Dean Lowry – Groin (Questionable)
Nick Mullens – Back (Out)
Kirk Cousins – Achilles (Out)
Chris Reed – Lower Leg (Questionable)
Marcus Davenport – Ankle (Out)
Olisaemeka Udoh – Quad (Out)
Justin Jefferson – Hamstring (Out)
James Lynch – Knee (Out)
Brian Asamoah II – Ankle (Questionable)
Jalen Nailor – Hamstring (Questionable)
Malik Knowles – Undisclosed (Out)
Akayleb Evans – Neck (Questionable)
Brandon Powell – Shoulder (Questionable)
K.J. Osborn – Chest (Questionable)

Atlanta Falcons

Mike Hughes – Shoulder (Questionable)
Desmond Ridder – Concussion (Probable)
DeMarcco Hellams – Hamstring (Questionable)
Barry Wesley – Undisclosed (Out)
Ikenna Enechukwu – Leg (Out)
Josh Ali – Ankle (Out)
LaCale London – Knee (Out)
Matt Hennessy – Knee (Out)
Feleipe Franks – Foot (Out)
Adetokunbo Ogundeji – Foot (Out)
Avery Williams – Knee (Out)
Parker Hesse – Undisclosed (Out)
Drake London – Groin (Questionable)
Troy Andersen – Arm (Out)
Ethan Greenidge – Leg (Out)
Keith Smith – Concussion (Questionable)
Grady Jarrett – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings

Going into their matchup vs. Atlanta, the Vikings aim to climb the league’s offensive scoring rankings, as they currently hover around the league average with 21.9 points per game. Looking at their performance in the passing game so far, Minnesota is 2nd in passing yards per game, where they have an average of 280.5. Additionally, their passing yards per attempt of 7.1 places them 6 in the league. Minnesota has managed to find success on offense, even though they are ranked just 31st in rush yards per game. However, this lack of production has more to do with limited opportunites, as they are a below-average group in attempts.

Keys To Victory: Atlanta Falcons

Heading into the game, quarterback Taylor Heinicke will be making his first start of the season for the Falcons. As a team, Atlanta is throwing the ball an average of 32.9 times per game, leading to 214.9 yards, which is 17th in the league. When it comes to rushing, the Falcons are averaging 4.2 yards per attempt while running the ball an average of 30.2 times per game. At 126.2 rushing yards per contest, they are 10th in the league.

Betting Trends

When looking at their past three road matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 21 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
Through their last ten home contests, the Falcons offense has averaged 13 points per game while allowing an average of 22. Atlanta posted an overall record of 1-9 while going 3-7 ATS.
Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Vikings have a straight-up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-3-1.
In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Falcons have a straight-up record of 7-3 and an ATS mark of 3-7.