Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Pick and Preview

Posted on December 1, 2023

Non-Conference NFL Matchups

Point Spread: Dolphins -9.5 | Total Points: 49.5

As the Dolphins prepare for this non-conference matchup, the team has an overall record of 8-3. This includes riding a current two-game winning streak. Against AFC opponents, they have a record of 6-2. In their previous game, the Dolphins defeated the Jets with a final score of 34-13. The Dolphins were able to cover the spread vs. New York, as they went into the game favored by 9.5. With a combined score of 47 points, the game surpassed the pre-game over/under line of 40.

This week, the Commanders will look to snap their current three-game losing streak with a victory over the Dolphins. Heading into action, the team has a below .500 record of 4-8. This week, the Commanders aim to recover from their 45-10 loss to the Cowboys. The Commanders had a 35-point loss, resulting in a defeat on their ATS record. They were 13-point underdogs going into the game. With the over/under line set at 47.5 points, the over hit with a combined 55 points.

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders History

In the last three head-to-head matchups, the Dolphins are averaging 17 points per game, compared to the Commanders at 12. These figures have led to Miami posting a record of 2-1.

In their last three games away from home, the Dolphins have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 21 points per game in this stretch.
When looking at their past five home matchups, Washington has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 17 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Commanders have gone 2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Dolphins have a straight-up record of 8-2 and 7-3 ATS.

Notable Injuries

Miami Dolphins

Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
Raheem Mostert – Ankle/knee (Questionable)
Kendall Lamm – Back (Questionable)
Tyreek Hill – Ankle (Questionable)
Bradley Chubb – Knee (Questionable)
Elijah Campbell – Shoulder (Questionable)
Blake Ferguson – Ankle (Questionable)
Connor Williams – Illness (Questionable)
Durham Smythe – Ankle (Questionable)
Alec Ingold – Ankle/foot (Questionable)
Robert Hunt – Hamstring (Questionable)
De’Von Achane – Knee (Questionable)
Lester Cotton – Illness (Questionable)
Salvon Ahmed – Foot (Out)
Chase Claypool – Knee (Questionable)
Jaelan Phillips – Achilles (Out)
Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Out)
Chris Brooks – Ankle/knee (Questionable)
Jevon Holland – Knee (Questionable)
Robert Jones – Knee (Questionable)
Isaiah Wynn – Quadriceps (Out)
Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
Terron Armstead – Knee/quad (Questionable)

Washington Commanders

Tyler Larsen – Knee (Questionable)
Emmanuel Forbes Jr. – Elbow (Questionable)
Armani Rogers – Achilles (Out)
Curtis Brooks – Undisclosed (Out)
Drew White – Knee (Out)
Ricky Stromberg – Knee (Out)
Braeden Daniels – Shoulder (Out)
Dax Milne – Groin (Out)
David Bada – Triceps (Out)
James Smith-Williams – Hamstring (Questionable)
Saahdiq Charles – Calf (Out)
De’Jon Harris – Quad (Out)
Darrick Forrest – Shoulder (Out)
Shaka Toney – Suspension (Out)
Efe Obada – Leg (Out)
Jeremy Reaves – Knee (Out)
Alex Armah – Hamstring (Questionable)

Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins

Going into this week’s matchup, the Dolphins have one of the NFL’s top-rated offenses, averaging 30.8 points per game (2nd). This season, Miami’s passing offense is 16th in passing attempts. Their average of 285.3 passing yards per contest has them 1st in the NFL. Miami comes into the game with one of the better rush attacks in the NFL, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. This strong figure has led to the team ranking 2nd in yards per game on the ground.

Keys To Victory: Washington Commanders

Quarterback Sam Howell leads the league’s 17th-ranked scoring offense into Miami, averaging 247 passing yards per game. Washington will continue turning to the pass on offense, as they throw the ball an average of 40.5 times per contest. Overall, Howell has put together a passer rating of 87.3 while throwing for 3339 yards. Heading into the game, the team’s top receiver, Terry McLaurin, who through 12 games, has 694 receiving yards this season. A major reason for the team’s lack of offense is their inability to generate production with the rushing attack. Heading into today’s game, the team’s below-average number of rush attempts has turned into an average of just 96.8 rushing yards per game.

Betting Trends

Through their last three road games, Miami has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 21 points per game.
In their last ten games at home, the Commanders have a straight-up record of 4-5-1 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 21 points per game in this stretch.
Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Washington has an ATS mark of 3-1-1 while going 2-3 straight up.
Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Miami has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 8-2 straight up.